Seminar Program

Seminar Reading List
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IMF Seminars, Conferences and Workshops

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Globalization in Historical Perspective
A High-Level Seminar

Meeting Halls A & B

August 12–14, 2002

The seminar examines various features of globalization, defined as the increasingly close integration of markets for commodities, labor, and capital, to provide a background for today's issues. Modern globalization has been a recognized force for at least thirty years. Academic journals, the media, and political discourse are dominated by globalization events. For most it is a good force, but for a very angry minority it appears to be a bad force. The seminar considers the basic dimensions of globalization in the long-run: the pattern of expansion in the half century before World War I, contraction from World War I until after World War II and a backlash against globalization and a resurgence in recent decades. It also discusses the important issue of the winners and losers from globalization; the link between financial development, economic growth and the international integration of financial markets; and the historical evidence on the relationship between globalization and the exchange rate regime.

The seminar is open to all Fund staff and invited guests from IMF member countries. Staff from the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank are also welcome to attend. Please register by e-mail to the Internal Economics Training Section The registration deadline is close of business Wednesday, August 7, 2002. For further information please contact Sher Sandusky at the IMF Institute (202) 623-6187.


Monday, August 12

8:30 a.m.–9:30 a.m. Coffee
Registration of Country Officials
9:30 a.m.–10:00 a.m. Introductory Remarks
Anne O. Krueger (First Deputy Managing Director, IMF), Mohsin S. Khan (Director, IMF Institute), Michael D. Bordo (Rutgers University)
10:00 a.m.–10:45 a.m. Integration of Commodity Markets
Ronald E. Findlay (Columbia University)

This presentation provides a summary outline of what is known about trends in international commodity integration during the second half of the second millenium.The range of goods which has been traded between continents since the voyages of discovery has steadily increased over time, and there has been substantial integration of commodity markets over the period, driven by technology in the 19th century and by politics in the late 20th century. These trends, however, have not been monotonic but interrupted by both exogenous shocks and endogenous developments.
10:45 a.m.–11:00 a.m. Coffee
11:00 a.m.–12:30 p.m. Continuation
12:30 p.m.–2:00 p.m. Luncheon (by invitation only)
2:00 p.m.–3:30 p.m. Integration of Labor Markets
Barry R. Chiswick (University of Illinois at Chicago)

This presentation will focus on international migration and the globalization or integration of labor markets across countries. It will consider: the effect of the lower real cost of international migration, thereby tending to encourage migration and international wage convergence; the impact of this international migration on the level and distribution of income in the host economy; and, the rise in illegal or irregular migration as the increased barriers to international migration came into conflict with the increased supply of individuals wanting to migrate.
3:30 p.m.–3:45 p.m. Coffee
3:45 p.m.–5:00 p.m. Continuation
Tuesday, August 13
9:00 a.m.–10:30 a.m. Integration of Capital Markets
Alan M. Taylor (University of California, Davis, and NBER)

The presentation will give an overview of the development of global capital markets in the last two centuries. The conventional narrative accounts will be surveyed, and then the empirical evidence examined. The overall contours will be thus established. An organizing principle, the so-called "trilemma," will be introduced to make sense of this evolution in light of political economy choices.
10:30 a.m.–11:00 a.m. Coffee
11:00 a.m.–12:15 p.m. Continuation
12:15 p.m. –2:00 p.m. Lunch
2:00 p.m.–3:30 p.m.

Globalization and Inequality
Jeffrey G. Williamson (Harvard University, and NBER)

The world economy has become more globally integrated and more unequal over the last two centuries. Furthermore, virtually all of the observed rise in world inequality has been driven by widening gaps between nations, rather than within nations. Do these facts imply that globalization raises inequality between nations, but that it has no clear effect on inequality within nations? Can rising globalization explain the long run rise in world inequality? Does rising inequality at home create globalization backlash? This presentation will explore all of these questions, and more.

3:30 p.m.–3:45 p.m. Coffee
3:45 p.m.–5:00 p.m. Continuation
Wednesday, August 14
9:00 a.m.–10:30 a.m. Banking Finance and the Global Economy
Richard Sylla (New York University, and NBER)

This presentation will relate two strands of economic literature-that on the finance-growth nexus and that on capital market integration. The most successful economies of modern economic history appear to have developed good financial systems before they began to expand at modern rates of growth. History also indicates that countries with good financial systems engage in more international trade and are better integrated financially with other countries. Hence, both the growth and the increasing globalization of these economies may have had their origins in previous financial developments.
10:30 a.m.–11:00 a.m. Coffee
11:00 a.m.–12:15 p.m. Continuation
12: 15 p.m.–2:00 p.m. Luncheon (by invitation only)
2:00 p.m.–3:30 p.m. Globalization and International Monetary Regimes
Michael D. Bordo (Rutgers University)

This presentation contrasts the diverging experiences of advanced and emerging countries in their relationship between the international integration of financial markets and the international monetary regime which they followed in the two eras of globalization: 1880-1914 and 1973-the present. For the advanced countries financial maturity and credibility allowed them to both be fully open to capital movements and to successfully adhere to the gold standard pre-1914. The same prevails today with managed floating. The emerging countries pre-1914 lacked the financial maturity and credibility to successfully adhere to Gold and have open capital markets. They were forced to either adopt super hard pegs (100% gold reserves) or float and restrict capital movements. The same dilemma faces them today.
3:30 p.m.–3:45 p.m. Coffee
3:45 p.m.–4:45 p.m. Continuation
4:45 p.m.–5:15 p.m. Wrap Up Session