WEO Database October 1999

Transcript of a Press Conference on the October 1999 World Economic Outlook

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World Economic Outlook
  WORLD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SURVEYS
World Economic Outlook
Safeguarding Macroeconomic Stability at Low Inflation
October 1999

A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund
©1999 International Monetary Fund

The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.
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Contents
Assumptions and Conventions
Further Information and Data
Preface
Chapter I.  
356k pdf file
World Economic Outlook and the Challenges of Global Adjustment
Macroeconomic Stability and the Forces of Globalization:
    Lessons from the 1990s
 The Inevitable U.S. Slowdown and Adjustment
 Japan: Recovery in Sight?
 Securing a Lasting Revival of Growth in Europe
 Emerging Market Economies in Asia and Latin America:
    Ensuring Sustainable Recoveries
 Middle East and Africa: Varying Responses to Adjustment
    Pressures
 After a Decade of Transition: Widening Gaps Between
    Strong and Weak Performers
 Appendix: Year 2000 Contingency Planning
 Boxes
 1.1Australia and New Zealand: Divergences, Prospects, and Vulnerabilities
 1.2Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies
 1.3Comparing G-7 Fiscal Positions--Who Has a Debt Problem?
 1.4Oil Price Assumptions and the World Economic Outlook
 1.5The Regional Economic Impact of the Kosovo Crisis
 Tables
 1.1Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
 1.2Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
 1.3Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment
 1.4Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
 1.5Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
 1.6Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
 1.7Developing and Transition Economies: Y2K Scenario Results
 Figures
 1.1Global Indicators
 1.2Financing Conditions for Emerging Markets
 1.3Selected European Countries, Japan, and the United States: Indicators of Consumer and Business Confidence
 1.4Y2K Interest Rate Spike
Chapter II.  
320k pdf file
From Crisis to Recovery in the Emerging Market Economies
Improving Financial Conditions
 Patterns of Recovery in Asia and Latin America
 Structural Reform Requirements in Crisis-Hit Asian
    Economies: Conditions for a Durable Recovery
 Russia and Neighboring Countries in Transition: Prospects
    for Recovery and Reform
 Boxes
 2.1The Emerging Market Crises and South Africa
 2.2Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies: Composition and Volatility
 2.3Structural Reforms in Latin America: The Case of Argentina
 2.4Malaysia's Response to the Financial Crisis: How Unorthodox Was It?
 2.5Financial Sector Restructuring in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand
 2.6Counting the Costs of the Recent Crises
 Tables
 2.1Gross Private Financing to Emerging Market Economies
 2.2Emerging Market Economies: Net Capital Flows
 2.3Financial Sector Restructuring
 2.4Russian Federation: Macroeconomic Indicators, 1996–99
 2.5Countries in Transition: Average Annual Growth Rates in 1994–98, and 1998 GDP Per Capita in U.S. Dollar Purchasing Power Parity Terms
 2.6Countries in Transition: Structural Reform Indicators, 1994–98 Averages
 2.7Countries in Transition: Indicators of Export Performance and Labor Productivity in Industry, 1994–98 Averages
 Figures
 2.1Selected Emerging Market Economies: Short-Term Interest Rates
 2.2Selected Emerging Market Economies: Bilateral U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates
 2.3Emerging Market Economies: Equity Prices
 2.4Selected Emerging Market Countries: Eurobond Yield Spreads and Brady Bond Spreads
 2.5Selected Emerging Market Economies: Real GDP
 2.6Selected Asian and Latin American Economies: Real Effective Exchange Rates
 2.7Selected East Asian and Latin American Countries: Bank Credit to the Private Sector and Total External Debt, 1998
 2.8Selected East Asian Countries: Progress with Corporate Sector Restructuring
Chapter III.  
188k pdf file
Growth Divergences in the United States, Europe, and Japan: Trend or Cyclical?
Assessing the Sustainable Level of Output
 The United States: Will the Good Times Endure?
 Japan: Why the Decade of Lost Growth May Be
    an Aberration
 Can Europe Grow Faster?
 Alternative Scenarios: Harder Landing or Higher
    World Growth?
 Tables
 3.1United States, the Euro Area, and Japan: Estimates of Potential Output Growth
 3.2Selected European Economies: General Government Structural Balances and Long-Term Interest Rates
 3.3Harder Landing Scenario
 3.4Accelerated Adjustment Scenario
 Figures
 3.1United States, the Euro Area, and Japan: Economic Performance Indicators
 3.2United States, the Euro Area, and Japan: Vintages of Potential Output Growth and Output Gaps
 3.3United States, the Euro Area, and Japan: Output Per Employee and Per Head of Population
 3.4United States: Output, Labor Productivity, and Inflation in Recent Expansions
 3.5United States: Policy and Demand Indicators
 3.6United States, the Euro Area, and Japan: Changes in WEO Export Market Growth Assumptions
 3.7United States: Selected Price Indices
 3.8Japan: Policy and Demand Indicators
 3.9Euro Area: Policy and Demand Indicators
 3.10  Euro Area: Economic Performance Indicators
 3.11Euro Area: Convergence of Output Per Worker
 3.12United States, the Euro Area, and Japan: Household and National Saving Rates
Chapter IV.  
340k pdf file
Safeguarding Macroeconomic Stability at Low Inflation
The Achievement of Reasonable Price Stability
 Can Inflation Be Too Low?
 Price Stability and Macroeconomic Stability
 Asset Prices and Monetary Policy
 Boxes
 4.1The Effects of Downward Rigidity of Nominal Wages on (Un)employment: Selected Simulation Results
 4.2The Effects of a Zero Floor for Nominal Interest Rates on Real Output: Selected Simulation Results
 4.3Recent Episodes of Negative Inflation
 4.4Global Liquidity
 Tables
 4.1Selected Countries: Measurement Bias in the Consumer Price Index
 4.2Deflation and Output Growth
 4.3Pronounced Changes in Real Equity Prices
 4.4Selected Countries: Illustrative Examples of Potential Stock Market Overvaluation (First Quarter, 1999)
 4.5Selected Countries: Correlation of Equity Price Inflation and Goods Price Inflation
 Figures
 4.1Industrial Countries: Consumer Price Inflation
 4.2Hypothetical Distribution of Nominal Wage Increases
 4.3Selected Countries: Short-Term Interest Rates
 4.4Industrial Countries: Output Gap and Inflation
 4.5Comparison of Two Stock Market Crashes
 4.6Selected Countries: Stock Prices
 4.7Selected Countries: Measures of Stock Market Valuation
 4.8Selected Countries: Net Financial Balances
Chapter V.  
92k pdf file
Trends and Issues in the Global Trading System
Trends in Trade and Policies
 Current Issues and the New Round
 Table
 5.1Intraregional Export Shares, 1990–98
 Figures
 5.1Exports of Goods
 5.2Developing Countries and Countries in Transition: Average Annual Growth of Exports, 1988–98
 5.3World Merchandise and Services Exports
Chapter VI.  
144k pdf file
Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Performance, Impediments, and Policy Requirements
Past Growth in SSA Countries and Its Relationship
    to Policies
 Improving SSA's Growth Performance Further
 The Path to Sustained Growth
 Box
 6.1Africa and World Trends in Military Spending
 Tables
 6.1Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Developing Country Groups: Education and Health
 6.2Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Developing Country Groups: External Performance
 6.3Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Developing Country Groups: Quality of Governance, Institutions, and Public Services
 6.4Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Developing Country Groups: Financial and Infrastructure Indicators
 6.5Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Debt Sustainability Indicators
 Figures
 6.1Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Developing Country Groups: Growth, Investment, and Saving
 6.2Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Developing Country Groups: Inflation and Fiscal Balance
Annex.  
412k pdf file
Summing Up by the Chairman

Statistical Appendix
 Assumptions
 Data and Conventions
 Classification of Countries
 List of Tables
  Output (Tables 1–7)
  Inflation (Tables 8–13)
  Financial Policies (Tables 14–21)
  Foreign Trade (Tables 22–26)
  Current Account Transactions (Tables 27–32)
  Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables 33–37)
  External Debt and Debt Service
        (Tables 38–43)
  Flow of Funds (Table 44)
  Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 45–46)

 World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook,
 Selected Topics, 1992–99