World Economic Outlook

World Economic Outlook

The Global Economy After September 11

December 2001

©2001 International Monetary Fund

The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.

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Contents
393k pdf file	Assumptions and Conventions
	Preface
Chapter I.	Containing the Risks to the Global Economy
518k pdf file	Appendix: Contagion and Its Causes
	References
Chapter II. 230k pdf file	How Has September 11 Influenced the Global Economy?
	Direct Impact of the Attacks
	The Confidence Channel
	Financial Market Reaction
	Commodity Markets
	References
Chapter III.	Global and Regional Economic Prospects
452k pdf file	The Global Outlook
	Emerging Markets
	Appendix: Alternative Scenario—Impact of a More       Gradual Increase in Confidence and Risk Appetite
	References
Annex. Summing Up By the Acting Chair
Statistical Appendix
	Assumptions
	List of Tables
	Boxes
	1.1	Policymaking Under Uncertainty
	2.1	The Long-Term Impact of September 11
	2.2	Financial Market Dislocations and Policy       Responses After the September 11 Attacks
	2.3	Investor Risk Appetite
	2.4	How Did the September 11 Attacks Affect       Exchange Rate Expectations?
	3.1	The Accuracy of World Economic Outlook       Growth Forecasts: 1991–2000
	3.2	Fiscal Stimulus and the Outlook for the       United States
	3.3	The Effects of the September 11 Attacks on the       Caribbean Region
	3.4	Argentina: An Uphill Struggle to Regain       Confidence
	Tables
	1.1	Overview of the World Economic Outlook       Projections
	1.2	The Channels of Contagion or Spillovers in       Selected Crises
	2.1	Direct Costs of September 11 Attacks
	2.2	Impact of Confidence Indices on the Growth of       Real GDP
	2.3	Developments in Financial Markets
	2.4	Change in the Implied Earnings Growth Rates       over the Next Year
	2.5	United States: Consensus Forecasts During       January–October 2001 for Pre-Tax Profits
	2.6	Estimated Effects of Commodity Price Changes       on GDP Growth
	3.1	Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer       Prices, and Unemployment
	3.2	Major Advanced Economies: General       Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
	3.3	Selected Developing and Transition Economies:       Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current       Account Balance
	3.4	Emerging Market Economies: Net Capital Flows
	3.5	Alternative Scenario: Delayed Strengthening in       Consumer Confidence and Risk Appetite
	3.6	Alternative Scenario: Delayed Recovery in       Financing Flows to Emerging Markets
	3.7	Ready Reckoners of Individual Shocks
	Figures
	1.1	Global Indicators
	1.2	Selected Financial Market Indicators
	1.3	Selected European Union Countries, Japan, and       United States: Indicators of Consumer       and Business Confidence
	1.4	Private Sector Forecasts
	1.5	Global Output, Industrial Production, and       Trade Growth
	1.6	Average Cross-Correlation of Emerging       Debt Markets
	2.1	Stock Market Indices by Industry
	2.2	United States: Indicators of Consumer and       Business Confidence
	2.3	Credit and Bond Markets
	3.1	Macroeconomic Indicators—Advanced Economies
	3.2	Technology and Total Exports in Emerging Asia
	3.3	Linkages Between Central and Western Europe
	3.4	Fuel and Nonfuel Commodity Exporting Countries
	3.5	Impact of a Delayed Reversion in Global       Confidence and Risk Appetite
World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–2001