The WEO Database December 2001

Transcript of a Press Conference on the Interim World Economic Outlook
December 18, 2001

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World Economic Outlook
 

WORLD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SURVEYS
World Economic Outlook
The Global Economy After September 11
December 2001

A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund

©2001 International Monetary Fund
Ordering Information


The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.

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Contents
393k pdf file Assumptions and Conventions
Preface
Chapter I.

Containing the Risks to the Global Economy

518k pdf file Appendix: Contagion and Its Causes
  References
Chapter II.
230k pdf file
How Has September 11 Influenced the Global Economy?
  Direct Impact of the Attacks
  The Confidence Channel
  Financial Market Reaction
  Commodity Markets
  References
Chapter III. Global and Regional Economic Prospects
452k pdf file The Global Outlook
  Emerging Markets
  Appendix: Alternative Scenario—Impact of a More
      Gradual Increase in Confidence and Risk Appetite
  References
Annex. Summing Up By the Acting Chair
Statistical Appendix
  Assumptions
  List of Tables
  Boxes
  1.1 Policymaking Under Uncertainty
  2.1 The Long-Term Impact of September 11
  2.2 Financial Market Dislocations and Policy
      Responses After the September 11 Attacks
  2.3 Investor Risk Appetite
  2.4 How Did the September 11 Attacks Affect
      Exchange Rate Expectations?
  3.1 The Accuracy of World Economic Outlook
      Growth
Forecasts: 1991–2000
  3.2 Fiscal Stimulus and the Outlook for the
      United States
  3.3 The Effects of the September 11 Attacks on the
      Caribbean Region
  3.4 Argentina: An Uphill Struggle to Regain
      Confidence
  Tables
  1.1 Overview of the World Economic Outlook
      Projections
  1.2 The Channels of Contagion or Spillovers in
      Selected Crises
  2.1 Direct Costs of September 11 Attacks
  2.2 Impact of Confidence Indices on the Growth of
      Real GDP
  2.3 Developments in Financial Markets
  2.4 Change in the Implied Earnings Growth Rates
      over the Next Year
  2.5 United States: Consensus Forecasts During
      January–October 2001 for Pre-Tax Profits
  2.6 Estimated Effects of Commodity Price Changes
      on GDP Growth
  3.1 Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer
      Prices, and Unemployment
  3.2 Major Advanced Economies: General
      Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
  3.3 Selected Developing and Transition Economies:
      Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current
      Account Balance
  3.4 Emerging Market Economies: Net Capital Flows
  3.5 Alternative Scenario: Delayed Strengthening in
      Consumer Confidence and Risk Appetite
  3.6 Alternative Scenario: Delayed Recovery in
      Financing Flows to Emerging Markets
  3.7 Ready Reckoners of Individual Shocks
  Figures
  1.1 Global Indicators
  1.2 Selected Financial Market Indicators
  1.3 Selected European Union Countries, Japan, and
      United States: Indicators of Consumer
      and Business Confidence
  1.4 Private Sector Forecasts
  1.5 Global Output, Industrial Production, and
      Trade Growth
  1.6 Average Cross-Correlation of Emerging
      Debt Markets
  2.1 Stock Market Indices by Industry
  2.2 United States: Indicators of Consumer and
      Business Confidence
  2.3 Credit and Bond Markets
  3.1 Macroeconomic Indicators—Advanced Economies
  3.2 Technology and Total Exports in Emerging Asia
  3.3 Linkages Between Central and Western Europe
  3.4 Fuel and Nonfuel Commodity Exporting Countries
  3.5 Impact of a Delayed Reversion in Global
      Confidence and Risk Appetite
World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–2001