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| Contents |
| 111 kb pdf file |
Assumptions and Conventions |
| Preface |
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Foreword |
Chapter I.
525 kb pdf file |
Economic Prospects and Policies |
| United States and Canada: More Ambitious fiscal Consolidation is Needed in the United States |
| Western Europe: Renewed Concerns About the Strength of the Recovery |
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Japan: Will Growth Resume? |
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Emerging Asia and the Pacific: A Continuing Expansion, but External Surpluses Persist |
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Latin America: Is Fiscal Policy on the Right Track at Last? |
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Emerging Europe: Current Account Deficits Remain a Challenge |
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Commonwealth of Independent States: Has Disinflation Bottomed Out? |
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Africa: Turning the Corner? |
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The Middle East: How Is the Recycling of Oil Revenues Affecting the Global Economy? |
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Appendix 1.1 Recent Developments in Commodity Markets |
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References |
Chapter II.
274 kb pdf file |
Two Current Issues Facing Developing Countries |
| Workers' Remittances and Economic Development |
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Output Volatility in Emerging Market and Developing Countries |
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Appendix 2.1. Workers' Remittances and Economic Development: Sample Composition, Data Sources, and Methods |
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Appendix 2.2. Output Volatility in Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Country Coverage, Methodology, and Data |
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References |
Chapter III.
311 kb pdf file |
Globalization and External Imbalances |
| Financial Globalization |
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Real Globalization |
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The Effects of Globalization: An Integrated Perspective |
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Summary and Policy Implications |
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Appendix 3.1. Net Foreign Assets, Valuation, and Adjustment: A Glossary Of Terms |
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Appendix 3.2. Econometric Evidence on the Valuation Channel |
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Appendix 3.3. Details on Rigidities and Monetary Policy Rule Used in the GEM Simulation |
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References |
Chapter IV.
272 kb pdf file |
Will the Oil Market Continue to Be Tight? |
| Basic Stylized Facts |
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Medium- and Long-Term Projections |
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Conclusions and Policy Recommendations |
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Appendix 4.1. Oil Market Prospects: Data and Modeling Strategy |
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References |
| 56 kb pdf file |
Annex: Summing Up by the Acting Chair |
| 376 kb pdf file |
Statistical Appendix |
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Assumptions |
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What's New |
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Data and Conventions |
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Classifications of Countries |
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List of Tables |
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Output (Tables 1-6) |
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Inflation (Tables 7-11) |
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Financial Policies (Tables 12-19) |
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Foreign Trade (Tables 20-24) |
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Current Account Transactions (Tables 25-31) |
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Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables 32-34) |
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External Financing (Tables 35-36) |
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External Debt (Tables 37-42) |
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Flow of Funds (Table 43) |
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Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 44-45) |
World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics
84 kb pdf file |
| Boxes |
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1.1 |
The Indian Ocean Tsunami: Impact on South Asian Economies |
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1.2 |
What Are the risks from Low U.S. Long-Term Interest Rates? |
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1.3 |
The Ending of Global Textile Trade Quotas |
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1.4 |
What Progress Has Been Made in Implementing Policies to Reduce Global Imbalances? |
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1.5 |
How Does Macroeconomic Instability Stifle Sub-Saharan African Growth? |
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1.6 |
How Should Middle Eastern and Central Asian Oil Exporters Use their Oil Revenues? |
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2.1 |
Workers' Remittances and Emigration in the Caribbean |
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2.2 |
Regulating Remittances |
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2.3 |
Why Is Volatility Harmful? |
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2.4 |
Balance of Payments Data on Workers' Remittances |
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3.1 |
External Imbalances Then and Now |
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3.2 |
Measuring a Country's Net External Position |
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3.3 |
Financial Globalization and the Conduct of Macroeconomic Policies |
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3.4 |
Monetary Policy in a Globalized World |
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4.1 |
Should Countries Worry About Oil Price Fluctuations? |
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4.2 |
Data Quality in the Oil Market |
| Tables |
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1.1 |
Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections |
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1.2 |
Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Net Capital Flows |
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1.3 |
Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt |
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1.4 |
Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment |
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1.5 |
Selected Economies: Current Account Positions |
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1.6 |
Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices and Current Account Balance |
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1.7 |
Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance |
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1.8 |
Emerging Europe: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance |
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1.9 |
Commonwealth of Independent States: real GDP, Consumer Prices and Current Account Balance |
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1.10 |
Selected African Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance |
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1.11 |
Selected Middle Eastern Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance |
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1.12 |
Global Oil Demand by Region |
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1.13 |
Nonenergy Commodity Prices |
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1.14 |
Relative Forecasting Performance: Futures Versus Random Walk Model |
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2.1 |
Regression Results: Impact of Workers' Remittances |
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2.2 |
Regression Results: Determinants of Workers' Remittances |
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2.3 |
Contributors to Volatility in Real Per Capita Output Growth |
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2.4 |
What Explains the Declines in Output Volatility Between 1970-86 and 1987-2004? |
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2.5 |
Volatility Regression Results |
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3.1 |
Gross Assets and Liabilities, 1980-2003 |
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3.2 |
Overseas Portfolio Investment |
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3.3 |
Portfolio Diversification: Actual Foreign Shares and Benchmark Foreign Shares Implied by Other Countries' Share in World Market Portfolio |
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3.4 |
Geography of Cross-Border Portfolio Equity Holdings |
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3.5 |
Changes in Geographical Trade Patterns |
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3.6 |
Trade Intensity |
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3.7 |
Foreign Direct Investment Flows |
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3.8 |
Differences in Parameters in Vintage Calibrations, 1980s and 2000s |
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3.9 |
Impact of Risk Premium Shocks on Long-Run Trade Balances |
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3.10 |
Panel VECM: Forecast Variance Decomposition |
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3.11 |
Predictive Ability of Cointegrating Residuals |
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3.12 |
Estimates of Nominal and Real Rigidities in an Earlier and a Later Sample |
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3.13 |
Decomposition of Differences in Response Paths by Parameter Groups |
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4.1 |
Unit Costs of Oil Production |
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4.2 |
Oil Demand Projection |
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4.2 |
Average Income Semi-Elasticities, 2003-30 |
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4.4 |
Projections of Non-OPEC Oil Supply |
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4.5 |
Projected Oil Demand, Non-OPEC Supply, and Call on OPEC |
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4.6 |
Estimated Demand Elasticities |
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4.7 |
Demand Elasticities Used for Projections |
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4.8 |
Vehicle Ownership and Income |
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4.9 |
Vehicle Ownership Projections |
| Figures |
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1.1 |
Global Indicators |
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1.2 |
Current and Forward-Looking Indicators |
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1.3 |
Global Exchange Rate Developments |
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1.4 |
Global Inflation |
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1.5 |
Developments in Mature Financial Markets |
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1.6 |
Emerging Market Financial Conditions |
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1.7 |
Global Outlook |
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1.8 |
Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the Major Advanced Countries |
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1.9 |
Household and Corporate Balance Sheets |
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1.10 |
United States: Selected Financial and Economic Indicators |
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1.11 |
Western Europe: Export Performance in Germany, France, and Italy |
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1.12 |
Japan: Where Is the Economy in the Current Expansion? |
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1.13 |
Emerging Asia: Current Accounts, Savings, and Investment |
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1.14 |
Latin America: Fiscal Performance Is Improving, but Public Debt Remains Too High |
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1.15 |
Emerging Europe: The Challenge of Current Account Deficits |
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1.16 |
CIS: Has Disinflation Lost Momentum? |
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1.17 |
Sub-Saharan Africa: Output Growth and Volatility |
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1.18 |
Middle East: How Are OPEC Members Using the Higher Oil Revenues? |
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1.19 |
Oil Prices, Future, and Production |
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1.20 |
Commercial Oil Inventories and World Refinery Capacity |
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1.21 |
Nonenergy Commodities |
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1.22 |
Semiconductor Market |
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1.23 |
Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Prices |
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2.1 |
Workers' Remittances and Other Foreign Exchange Flows to Developing Countries |
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2.2 |
Remittances: Sources and Destinations |
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2.3 |
Developing Countries: 20 Largest Recipients of Remittances |
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2.4 |
Remittances and Other Foreign Exchange Flows: Volatility and Cyclicality |
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2.5 |
Cost of Sending $200 in Remittances from the United States |
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2.6 |
Volatility of Output Growth |
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2.7 |
Volatility of Output Growth by Region |
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2.8 |
Global Factor and Actual Global Growth |
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2.9 |
Regional Factors |
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2.10 |
Contributors to Volatility in Real Per Capita Output Growth, 1970-2004 |
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2.11 |
Decompositions of Declines in Output Volatility Between 1970-86 and 1987-2003 |
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2.12 |
Response of the Volatility of Output Growth to a One-Standard-Deviation Increase in Terms-of-Trade Volatility |
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2.13 |
Output Volatility and Improvements in Policies |
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3.1 |
Financial Globalization Trends, 1970-2003 |
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3.2 |
Determinants of Financial Globalization |
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3.3 |
External Current Account Balances and Net External Positions, 1970-2003 |
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3.4 |
Industrial Countries: Long-Term Real Interest Rates and Net Foreign Assets |
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3.5 |
Valuation Effects on Net Foreign Assets |
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3.6 |
Valuation Effects, Current Accounts, and Net Foreign Assets |
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3.7 |
Valuation Changes in Net Foreign Assets and Real Effective Exchange Rates |
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3.8 |
Selected Emerging Market Countries: Valuation Changes and Real Effective Exchange Rates |
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3.9 |
Determinants of Real Globalization |
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3.10 |
Degrees of Foreign Competition and Effective Exchange Rate in G-7 Countries |
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3.11 |
Economies' Relative Sizes and Trade Patterns |
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3.12 |
Global Rebalancing Under Benign Financial Market Conditions |
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3.13 |
Global Rebalancing Under Adverse Financial Market Conditions |
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4.1 |
Oil Market as a Source of Shocks |
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4.2 |
Oil Consumption |
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4.3 |
Oil Consumption per Unit of Output |
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4.4 |
Oil Production and Reserves |
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4.5 |
OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply |
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4.6 |
Long-Term Projections of Oil Demand |
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4.7 |
Vehicle Ownership and Per Capita Income |
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4.8 |
Profitability of Various OPEC Market Strategies |
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4.9 |
Oil Demand in Advanced Economies |
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4.10 |
Oil Demand in Emerging Market and Developing Countries |
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4.11 |
Decomposition of Oil Price Movements |
