Press Briefing by Michael Mussa, Economic Counselor and Director Research Department September 30, 1998

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World Economic Outlook
 

WORLD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SURVEYS
World Economic Outlook
Financial Turbulence and the World Economy
October 1998

A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund
©1998 International Monetary Fund

The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.
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Contents
  Assumptions and Conventions
  Preface
Chapter I
161k pdf file  
Policy Responses to the Current Crisis
Financial Market Developments and Risks
Asia: Setbacks, but Progress Toward Crisis Resolution
Russia's Financial and Payments Crisis
Other Emerging Market Countries: Reducing Vulnerabilities
The United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom:
   Striking a Balance in Monetary Policy
Euro Area: Prospects and Policy Challenges
Systemic Considerations
  Boxes
 1.1Review of Debt-Reduction Efforts for Low-Income Countries and Status of the HIPC Initiative
 1.2Strengthening the Architecture of the International Monetary System Through International Standards and Principles of Good Practice
  Figures
 1.1World Industrial Production
 1.2World Output and Inflation
Chapter II
421k pdf file
The Crisis in Emerging Markets--and Other Issues in the Current Conjuncture
Global Growth and Inflation Outlook
The Emerging Markets Crisis: Its Evolution and Spread
Prospects for Global Flows of Funds and Current Account
   Balances
Foreign Exchange and Financial Market Developments
   in the Industrial Countries
Inflation Concerns in Advanced Economies
Issues Relating to Growth and Inflation in Developing
   Countries and Countries in Transition
  Boxes
 2.1Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies
 2.2Trade Adjustment in East Asian Crisis Countries
 2.3The Role of Monetary Policy in Responding to Currency Crises
 2.4The Asian Crisis: Social Costs and Mitigating Policies
 2.5Fiscal Balances in the Asian Crisis Countries: Effects of Changes in the Economic Environment Versus Policy Measures
  Tables
 2.1Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
 2.2Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment Rates
 2.3Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
 2.4Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
 2.5Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
 2.6Selected Asian Economies: Macroeconomic Indicators
 2.7Baseline Recovery Path of the Asian Crisis Countries
 2.8Russia and Ukraine: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators
 2.9Developing Countries, Countries in Transition, and Newly Industrialized Asian Economies: Net Capital Flows
 2.10   Gross Private Financing to Emerging Market Economies
 2.11Overview of Current Account Projections
 2.12Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
 2.13Recent Exchange Rate Movements on a Bilateral and Multilateral Basis
 2.14United States: Economic Indicators
 2.15Selected Advanced Economies: Unemployment Rates, 1997
 2.16Selected Countries: Changes in Asset Prices
 2.17Major Oil-Exporting Developing Countries: Budgetary Impact of Oil Price Decline
 2.18Middle East and African Countries: Growth, Inflation, and Fiscal Balances
  Figures
 2.1Selected European Union Countries, Japan, and the United States: Indicators of Consumer and Business Confidence
 2.2Prices of Crude Petroleum and Nonfuel Commodities
 2.3Selected Advanced Economies: Inflation
 2.4Advanced Economies: Inflation and Commodity Prices
 2.5Major Industrial Countries: Output Gaps
 2.6Selected European Countries: Real Total Domestic Demand
 2.7Major Industrial Countries: Indices of Monetary Conditions
 2.8Selected Emerging Market Countries: Bilateral U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates
 2.9Selected Emerging Market Countries: Equity Prices
 2.10 Selected East Asian Countries: Unemployment
 2.11Selected Emerging Market Countries: Short-Term Interest Rates
 2.12Mexico and Selected Asian Economies: Real Private Sector Credit Growth During Crisis Periods
 2.13Developing Countries: Equity Prices
 2.14Russia: Monetary and Financial Market Developments
 2.15Emerging Markets: Bond Spreads
 2.16Major Industrial Countries: Effective Exchange Rates
 2.17Major Industrial Countries: Nominal Interest Rates
 2.18Advanced Economies: Equity Prices
 2.19United States: Actual and Predicted Inflation
 2.20 Selected Advanced Economies: Unemployment
 2.21Selected Advanced Economies: Labor Force Participation
 2.22Selected Advanced Economies: Employment
 2.23Prices of Selected Commodities
 2.24Selected Countries in Transition: Inflation
Chapter III
141k pdf file
The Asian Crisis and the Region's Long-Term
Growth Performance

Sources of East Asia's Growth
Efficiency of Investment
The Role of Policies and Institutions in Fostering High
   Growth
The East Asian Development Strategy in a Changing
   Environment
Building the Basis for Sustained Recovery and Growth
  Boxes
 3.1Aging in the East Asian Economies: Implications for Government Budgets and Saving Rates
 3.2Summary of Structural Reforms in Crisis Countries
  Tables
 3.1Selected Economies: Sources of Economic Growth
 3.2Selected East Asian Economies: Estimates of Total Factor Productivity Growth
 3.3Selected Economies: Investment-GDP Ratios
 3.4Selected Economies: Composition of Private Saving
 3.5Selected Economies: Net Private Capital Flows
 3.6Selected Economies: Structure of Financial System
 3.7Selected Economies: Broad Money (M2)
 3.8Selected Economies: Private Sector Credit
 3.9Selected Economies: Debt-Equity Ratios of Manufacturing Corporations
 3.10 Selected East Asian Economies: Banking Sector Problems
 3.11Selected Economies: Macroeconomic Indicators
 3.12ASEAN-4 Plus Korea: Macroeconomic Developments and Debt Dynamics
  Figures
 3.1Selected Economies: Efficiency of Investment
 3.2Selected Economies: Incremental Capital-Output Ratios
 3.3Selected Economies: Stock Market Capitalization
 3.4Selected Economies: Growth of Merchandise Exports
 3.5Selected Country Groups: Shares of World Exports, Imports, and Output
 3.6Selected Countries: Destination of Exports
 3.7ASEAN-4 Plus Korea: Stock of Debt at End-1997
Chapter IV
124k pdf file
Japan's Economic Crisis and Policy Options
The Boom-Bust Cycle in Asset Markets
Consequences for the Real Economy
Role of Macroeconomic Policies
Role of Structural Policies
  Box
 4.1Japan's Liquidity Trap
  Tables
 4.1Japan: Growth Decomposition
 4.2Japan: Summary of Major Economic Stimulus Packages
  Figures
 4.1Selected Major Industrial Countries: Output Growth and Unemployment
 4.2Selected Countries: Equity and Property Prices
 4.3Japan: Stock Market Indicators
 4.4Selected Countries: Personal Saving Ratio
 4.5Japan: Business Capital-to-Output Ratio and GDP Components
 4.6Japan: Interest Rates and Indicators of Monetary Conditions
 4.7Japan: Fiscal Indicators
 4.8Japan: Credit Growth, Tankan Survey, and Bankruptcies
Chapter V
216k pdf file
Economic Policy Challenges Facing the Euro Area
and the External Implications of EMU

Economic Policies in the Euro Area
The Euro Area and the World Economy
Appendix. Economic Policymaking in the EU and
   Surveillance by EU Institutions
  Boxes
 5.1How Useful Are Taylor Rules as a Guide to ECB Monetary Policies?
 5.2Orienting Fiscal Policy in the Medium Term in Light of the Stability and Growth Pact and Longer-Term Fiscal Needs
 5.3Euro-Area Structural Rigidities
 5.4Determining Internal and External Conversion Rates for the Euro
 5.5The Euro Area and Effective Exchange Rates
  Tables
 5.1Euro Area and Selected Countries: Trade Linkages in 1996
 5.2Effect of 1 Percent Higher Output in the EMU Area on Selected Developing Countries
 5.3Selected Countries: Exchange Rate Regimes
 5.4Debt of CFA Franc Zone Countries
 5.5Selected Countries: External Debt and Shares of Long-Term Debt by Currency
 5.6Prospective European Union Members: Convergence Indicators, 1997
  Figures
 5.1Euro Area and the World Economy: Indicators of Relative Size
 5.2Euro Area: GDP Growth and Components of Demand
 5.3Euro Area: General Government Fiscal Balance and Inflation
 5.4Euro Area: Real Exchange Rates and Interest Rates
 5.5Euro Area: Output Gaps, Employment, and Unemployment
 5.6Euro Area: Inflation
 5.7Euro Area and the United States: Asset Prices
 5.8Euro-Area Broad Money Stock, Slope of German Yield Curve, and Forward Interest Rates for Germany
 5.9Euro Area: Fiscal Trends
 5.10 Euro Area: Structural Fiscal Balances and Output Gaps, 1997 and 1998
 5.11Euro Area: Employment and Unemployment, 1996
 5.12ECU and Deutsche Mark Exchange Rates Vis-à-vis the U.S. Dollar: Spot and Forward, August 31, 1998
Statistical
Appendix

288k pdf file
Assumptions
Data and Conventions
Classification of Countries
List of Tables
Output (Tables 1–7)
Inflation (Tables 8–13)
Financial Policies (Tables 14–21)
Foreign Trade (Tables 22–26)
Current Account Transactions (Tables 27–32)
Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables 33–37)
External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 38–43)
Flow of Funds (Table 44)
Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 45–46)
Selected
Topics
  
28k pdf file
World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–98