I had one major source of unhappiness with last week’s conference: the participants were largely silent about the dismal outlook in the advanced economies for the next several years. The current outlook for unemployment in the United States, Europe, and Japan is probably worse than it was in late 2008. Then, mainstream forecasts for 2009–2011 showed unemployment rising sharply—but generally to levels below what we are experiencing today—and then returning toward normal at a moderate pace. Today, not only is unemployment higher than most 2008 forecasts of its peak levels, but the expected pace of recovery is weaker.
Despite this deterioration, the dire sense of urgency in late 2008 has not increased. Indeed, it has largely disappeared. I find this complacency in the fact of vast, preventable suffering and waste hard to understand.
With the exception of that one critical omission, I was impressed by the discussion. One striking feature was the consensus that there is no consensus. That is, no one argued that there was widespread agreement about a simple set of rules for achieving macroeconomic stability, robust growth, and shared prosperity. Indeed, no one proposed such a set of rules. The crisis has, appropriately, made macroeconomists and policymakers humble about what we know. Although we must continue to give the best policy advice we can, this is also a time for intensive thought and research. I found the conference to be a valuable contribution to that process. And I thought that the fact that it was the IMF that organized the conference—and, especially, the wide range of perspectives of the people it invited to participate—reflects very well on the institution. It is a sign that the Fund understands that it does not have all the answers, and that it needs to look broadly in its efforts to rethink issues that were widely viewed as settled just a few years ago.
On some specific issues, there was, if not unanimity, considerable agreement:
The discussion that was started at this conference needs to continue. We, the conference co-hosts, hope to hear your comments.
Other conference-related blog posts by Olivier Blanchard: