IMF Executive Board Completes the Eighth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for Ukraine
IMF News, June 30, 2025
Source details
- Canonical URL
- IMF Executive Board Completes the Eighth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for Ukraine
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Published: June 30, 2025
Review outcome and disbursement
- The Executive Board completed the Eighth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Ukraine on June 30, 2025.
- The completion enabled a disbursement of about US$0.5 billion (SDR 0.37 billion) to Ukraine, to be channeled for budget support.
- This disbursement brings total disbursements under the IMF-supported program to US$10.6 billion.
- Ukraine’s 48-month EFF has access of SDR 11.6 billion (equivalent to about US$15.5 billion, or 577 percent of quota) and was approved on March 31, 2023.
- The IMF-supported program forms part of an international support package totaling US$152.9 billion in the program’s baseline scenario.
Program compliance, benchmarks, and adjustments
- Ukraine met all end-March and continuous quantitative performance criteria for the Eighth Review, the prior action, and two structural benchmarks.
- Prior action completed: submission to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of a detailed reform plan for the State Customs Service (SCS).
- Two structural benchmarks completed: tax reporting for digital platform operators; publication of the external audit of NABU.
- Four new structural benchmarks established:
- measures to update the single project pipeline;
- preparation of a prioritized roadmap for financial market infrastructure;
- implementation of international valuation standards;
- development of legislative proposals to align securitization and bonds with international standards.
- Timelines for some other structural benchmarks (including appointment of the head of the SCS) were reset by the IMF Executive Board to allow more time for completion.
- Authorities requested a rephasing of access to IMF financing over the remainder of 2025 to better align with updated balance of payments needs; the overall size of the program remains unchanged.
Macroeconomic outlook and projections
- The 2025 growth forecast maintained at 2–3 percent.
- Drivers noted: a smaller electricity deficit offset by lower gas production and weaker agricultural exports.
- The war necessitates a supplementary budget for 2025.
- The medium-term fiscal path has been revised to reflect authorities’ policy intentions on revenue mobilization and expenditure prioritization.
- The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has maintained a tight monetary policy to respond to still high inflation; inflation expectations remain anchored.
- FX reserves described as adequate, sustained by continued sizeable external support.
- Outlook characterized as subject to exceptionally high uncertainty.
Risks and policy priorities (statements from IMF management)
- Full and timely disbursement of external support during the program period remains indispensable for macroeconomic stability.
- The Fund-supported program is reported as fully financed with a cumulative external financing envelope of US$153 billion in the baseline scenario and US$165 billion in the downside scenario over the 4-year program period; this includes full utilization of approximately US$50 billion from the G7’s ERA initiative.
- Fiscal sustainability and meeting elevated priority expenditures over the medium term require:
- continued decisive efforts to implement the National Revenue Strategy;
- modernization of the tax and customs services (including timely appointment of the customs head);
- reduction in tax evasion;
- harmonization of legislation with EU standards;
- improvements in public investment management frameworks, medium-term budget preparation, and fiscal risk management.
- Completion of the debt restructuring strategy in line with the program’s debt sustainability objectives is essential to create room for priority expenditures, reduce fiscal risks, and restore debt sustainability.
- Given still elevated inflation, the tight monetary policy stance is appropriate; the NBU should be ready to tighten further if inflation expectations deteriorate.
- Greater exchange rate flexibility will help strengthen economic resilience while safeguarding reserves.
- The financial sector remains stable but vigilance is needed; operational and governance weaknesses in the security markets regulator need urgent attention.
- Closing gaps in capital markets infrastructure is key to attracting foreign private capital for post-war reconstruction.
- Sustained progress in anticorruption and governance reforms remains crucial; completed audit of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau is important, and additional efforts are required including amending the criminal procedures code, appointing the new head of the Economic Security Bureau, and strengthening AML/CFT frameworks.
Key statistics (selected items from Table 1: Ukraine: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2021–27)
- Nominal GDP (billions of Ukrainian hryvnias): 5,451; 5,239; 6,628; 7,659; 8,866; 10,192; 11,322
- Real GDP (percent change): 3.4; -28.8; 5.5; 2.9; 2-3; 4.5; 4.8
- Contributions to Real GDP (percent points):
- Domestic demand: 12.8; -19.0; 11.9; 3.8; 5.2; 2.7
- Private consumption: 3.0; 4.6; 2.8
- Public consumption: 0.1; 5.6; -1.5; 0.3; -2.5; -2.0
- Investment: 8.1; -5.5; 5.8; 0.6; 2.1; 2.5; 2.0
- Net exports: -9.3; -9.8; -6.3; -0.8; -3.2; 1.1
- GDP deflator (percent change): 24.8; 34.9; 19.9; 12.3; 13.5; 10.0; 6.0
- Unemployment rate (ILO; percent): 9.8; 24.5; 19.1; 13.1; 11.6; 10.2; 9.4
- Consumer prices (period average): 20.2; 12.9; 6.5; 12.6; 7.6; 5.3
- Consumer prices (end of period): 26.6; 5.1; 12.0; 9.0; 7.0; 5.0
- Nominal wages (average): 20.8; 1.0; 20.1; 23.1; 17.4; 13.7; 10.8
- Real wages (average): 10.5; -16.0; 6.4; 15.6; 4.2; 5.7
- Savings (percent of GDP): 12.5; 17.0; 11.4; 4.4; 18.3
- Private: 12.7; 30.2; 27.4; 23.3; 21.4; 15.9; 18.0
- Public: -0.2; -13.1; -14.6; -11.8; -17.1; -5.9
- Investment (percent of GDP): 14.5; 12.1; 18.1; 18.6; 20.9; 22.6; 23.7
- General Government fiscal balance (percent of GDP): -4.0; -15.6; -19.3; -17.2; -21.3; -10.1; -4.6
- Fiscal balance, excl. grants (percent of GDP): -24.8; -25.8; -23.1; -22.1; -10.4; -5.6
- Public and publicly-guaranteed debt (percent of GDP): 48.9; 77.7; 81.2; 89.7; 108.6; 110.4; 106.4
- Base money (end of period, percent change): 11.2; 19.6; 7.7; 21.7; 10.4
- Broad money (end of period, percent change): 23.0; 14.4; 13.2; 13.2
- Credit to nongovernment (end of period, percent change): 8.4; -0.5; 10.6; 17.7
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): -1.9; -5.3; -7.2; -16.5; -12.6; -5.4
- Gross reserves (end of period, billions of U.S. dollars): 30.9; 28.5; 40.5; 43.8; 53.4; 52.8; 55.6
- Months of next year's imports of goods and services: 6.3
- Goods exports (annual volume change, percent): 39.0; -37.5; -8.5; 16.8; 14.9; 14.3
- Goods imports (annual volume change, percent): 15.1; -29.7; 18.5; 19.3
- Goods terms of trade (percent change): -8.4; -11.6; 3.6; 0.5; 0.4
- Exchange rate Hryvnia per U.S. dollar (end of period): 27.3; 36.6; 38.0; 42.0; …
- Hryvnia per U.S. dollar (period average): 32.3; 40.2
- Real effective rate (CPI-based, percent change): 2.6; 3.2; -6.7; -6.5
- Memorandum items:
- Per capita GDP / Population (2017): US$2,640 / 44.8 million
- Literacy / Poverty rate (2022 est 3/): 100 percent / 25 percent perpercentpercent
IMF Communications Department; Press Release No. 25/227