Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the Eighth Review of the EFF, enabling the authorities to draw US$0.5 billion (SDR 0.37 billion, which will be channeled for budget support. This will bring the total disbursements under the IMF-supported program to US$10.6 billion.
Ukraine’s 48-month EFF, with access of SDR 11.6 billion (equivalent to about US$15.5 billion, or 577 percent of quota), was approved on March 31, 2023, and forms part of an international support package totaling US$152.9 billion in the program’s baseline scenario. Ukraine’s IMF-supported program helps anchor policies that sustain fiscal, external, and macro-financial stability at a time of exceptionally high uncertainty. The EFF aims to support Ukraine’s economic recovery, enhance governance, and strengthen institutions with the aim of promoting long-term growth and investment.
For the Eighth Review, Ukraine met all end-March and continuous quantitative performance criteria as well as the prior action to submit to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine a detailed reform plan for the State Customs Service (SCS). Two structural benchmarks on tax reporting for digital platform operators and publication of the external audit of NABU were also completed. Four new benchmarks were also established, including: measures to update the single project pipeline; preparation of a prioritized roadmap for financial market infrastructure; implementation of international valuation standards; and development of legislative proposals to align securitization and bonds with international standards. The timelines of some other structural benchmarks, including the appointment of the head of the SCS, have been reset by the IMF Executive Board to allow the authorities more time to complete these important reforms. The authorities also requested a rephasing of access to IMF financing over the remainder of 2025 to better align them with Ukraine’s updated balance of payments needs, while the overall size of the program remains unchanged.
The 2025 growth forecast has been maintained at 2–3 percent as a smaller electricity deficit is offset by lower gas production and weaker agricultural exports. Pressures from Russia’s war will require a supplementary budget for 2025, and the medium-term fiscal path has been revised to better reflect the authorities’ policy intentions on revenue mobilization and expenditure prioritization. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has maintained a tight monetary policy to respond to the still high inflation, while inflation expectations remain anchored. FX reserves remain adequate, sustained by continued sizeable external support. Overall, the outlook remains subject to exceptionally high uncertainty.
Following the Executive Board discussion on Ukraine, Ms. Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, issued the following statement[1]:
“Russia’s war continues to take a devastating social and economic toll on Ukraine. Nevertheless, macroeconomic stability has been preserved through skillful policymaking as well as substantial external support. The economy has remained resilient, but the war is weighing on the outlook, with growth tempered by labor market strains and damage to energy infrastructure. Risks to the outlook remain exceptionally high and contingency planning is key to enable appropriate policy action should risks materialize.
“The Fund-supported program remains fully financed, with a cumulative external financing envelope of US$153 billion in the baseline scenario and US$165 billion in the downside scenario, over the 4-year program period. This includes the full utilization of the approximately US$50 billion from the G7’s Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine (ERA) initiative. Full, timely, and predictable disbursement of external support—on terms consistent with debt sustainability—remains essential to achieving program objectives.
“The continuing war has necessitated a Supplementary Budget for 2025. Restoring fiscal sustainability and meeting elevated priority expenditures over the medium term will require continued decisive efforts to implement the National Revenue Strategy. This includes modernization of the tax and customs services (including the timely appointment of the customs head), reduction in tax evasion, and harmonization of legislation with EU standards. These reforms, combined with improvements in public investment management frameworks, medium-term budget preparation, and fiscal risk management, are critical to underpinning growth and investment.
“The authorities continue working to complete their debt restructuring strategy in line with the program’s debt sustainability objectives, which is essential to create room for priority expenditures, reduce fiscal risks, and restore debt sustainability.
“Given still elevated inflation, the tight monetary policy stance is appropriate, and the NBU should stand ready to tighten further should inflation expectations deteriorate. Greater exchange rate flexibility will help strengthen economic resilience while safeguarding reserves.
“The financial sector remains stable, though vigilance is needed given heightened risks. Operational and governance weaknesses in the security markets regulator need to be tackled urgently. Closing gaps in Ukraine’s capital markets infrastructure will be key to attracting foreign private capital for post-war reconstruction.
“Sustained progress in anticorruption and governance reforms remains crucial. The completed audit of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau is an important step; additional efforts are required, including amending the criminal procedures code, appointing the new head of the Economic Security Bureau, and strengthening AML/CFT frameworks.”
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Table 1. Ukraine: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2021–27
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2021
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2022
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2023
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2024
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2025
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2026
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2027
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Act.
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Act.
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Act.
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Proj.
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Proj.
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Proj.
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Proj.
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Real economy (percent change, unless otherwise indicated)
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Nominal GDP (billions of Ukrainian hryvnias) 1/
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5,451
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5,239
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6,628
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7,659
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8,866
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10,192
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11,322
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Real GDP 1/
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3.4
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-28.8
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5.5
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2.9
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2-3
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4.5
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4.8
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Contributions:
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Domestic demand
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12.8
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-19.0
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11.9
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3.8
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5.2
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3.4
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2.7
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Private consumption
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4.5
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-19.0
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3.0
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4.6
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2.8
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3.4
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2.7
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Public consumption
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0.1
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5.6
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3.0
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-1.5
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0.3
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-2.5
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-2.0
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Investment
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8.1
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-5.5
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5.8
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0.6
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2.1
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2.5
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2.0
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Net exports
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-9.3
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-9.8
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-6.3
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-0.8
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-3.2
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1.1
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2.1
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GDP deflator
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24.8
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34.9
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19.9
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12.3
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13.5
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10.0
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6.0
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Unemployment rate (ILO definition; period average, percent)
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9.8
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24.5
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19.1
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13.1
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11.6
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10.2
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9.4
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Consumer prices (period average)
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9.4
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20.2
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12.9
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6.5
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12.6
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7.6
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5.3
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Consumer prices (end of period)
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10.0
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26.6
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5.1
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12.0
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9.0
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7.0
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5.0
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Nominal wages (average)
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20.8
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1.0
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20.1
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23.1
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17.4
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13.7
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10.8
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Real wages (average)
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10.5
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-16.0
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6.4
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15.6
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4.2
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5.7
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5.3
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Savings (percent of GDP)
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12.5
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17.0
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12.8
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11.4
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4.4
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10.0
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18.3
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Private
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12.7
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30.2
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27.4
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23.3
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21.4
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15.9
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18.0
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Public
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-0.2
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-13.1
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-14.6
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-11.8
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-17.1
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-5.9
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0.3
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Investment (percent of GDP)
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14.5
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12.1
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18.1
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18.6
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20.9
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22.6
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23.7
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Private
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10.7
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9.6
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13.4
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13.3
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16.6
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18.3
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18.9
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Public
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3.8
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2.5
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4.7
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5.4
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4.3
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4.3
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4.9
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General Government (percent of GDP)
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Fiscal balance 2/
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-4.0
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-15.6
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-19.3
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-17.2
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-21.3
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-10.1
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-4.6
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Fiscal balance, excl. grants 2/
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-4.0
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-24.8
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-25.8
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-23.1
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-22.1
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-10.4
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-5.6
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External financing (net)
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2.5
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10.7
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16.2
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15.0
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24.5
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8.9
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1.7
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Domestic financing (net), of which:
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1.5
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5.0
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3.1
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0.3
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-3.1
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1.3
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2.8
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NBU
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-0.3
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7.3
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-0.2
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-0.2
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-0.1
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-0.1
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-0.1
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Commercial banks
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1.4
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-1.5
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2.5
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2.9
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2.7
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0.8
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3.4
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Public and publicly-guaranteed debt
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48.9
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77.7
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81.2
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89.7
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108.6
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110.4
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106.4
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Money and credit (end of period, percent change)
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Base money
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11.2
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19.6
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23.3
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7.7
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21.7
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13.1
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10.4
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Broad money
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12.0
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20.8
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23.0
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13.4
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14.4
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13.2
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10.4
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Credit to nongovernment
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8.4
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-3.1
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-0.5
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13.5
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10.6
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17.7
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18.6
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Balance of payments (percent of GDP)
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Current account balance
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-1.9
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4.9
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-5.3
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-7.2
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-16.5
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-12.6
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-5.4
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Foreign direct investment
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3.8
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0.1
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2.5
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1.8
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2.2
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4.0
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5.0
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Gross reserves (end of period, billions of U.S. dollars)
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30.9
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28.5
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40.5
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43.8
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53.4
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52.8
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55.6
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Months of next year's imports of goods and services
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4.5
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3.8
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5.3
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5.1
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6.3
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6.3
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6.5
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Percent of short-term debt (remaining maturity)
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74.4
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83.3
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100.3
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130.9
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178.9
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171.5
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172.1
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Percent of the IMF composite metric (float)
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105.5
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110.3
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130.2
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125.4
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125.5
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114.0
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115.7
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Goods exports (annual volume change in percent)
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39.0
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-37.5
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-8.5
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16.8
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3.0
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14.9
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14.3
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Goods imports (annual volume change in percent)
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15.1
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-29.7
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18.5
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6.0
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19.3
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4.7
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5.5
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Goods terms of trade (percent change)
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-8.4
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-11.6
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3.6
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0.5
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1.3
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1.0
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0.4
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Exchange rate
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Hryvnia per U.S. dollar (end of period)
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27.3
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36.6
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38.0
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42.0
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…
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…
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…
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Hryvnia per U.S. dollar (period average)
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27.3
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32.3
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36.6
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40.2
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…
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…
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…
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Real effective rate (CPI-based, percent change)
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2.6
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3.2
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-6.7
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-6.5
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…
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…
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…
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Memorandum items:
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Per capita GDP / Population (2017): US$2,640 / 44.8 million
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Literacy / Poverty rate (2022 est 3/): 100 percent / 25 percent perpercentpercent
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Sources: Ukrainian authorities; World Bank, World Development Indicators; and IMF staff estimates.
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1/ GDP is compiled as per SNA 2008 and excludes territories that are or were in direct combat zones and temporarily occupied by Russia (consistent with the TMU).
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2/ The general government includes the central and local governments and the social funds.
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3/ Based on World Bank estimates.
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[1] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summing up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.
