IMF Fiscal Monitor -- Acting Now, Acting Together -- April 2016
Fiscal Monitor, April 13, 2016
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- Published: April 13, 2016
- Series: Fiscal Monitor
Global economic outlook and policy context
- The global economy remains fragile.
- Recovery in advanced economies is softening; many emerging market and developing economies have experienced a significant economic slowdown, and some large countries show signs of distress.
- Global risk aversion has risen, and commodity prices have continued to fall since the April 2015 Fiscal Monitor.
- The weaker outlook and concerns about the ability of policymakers to provide an adequate and swift policy response have amplified downward risks and clouded global prospects.
- The challenging environment calls for a comprehensive policy response to boost growth and reduce vulnerabilities.
- It is critical to identify policies that could lift productivity growth by promoting innovation.
Chapter 1 — Navigating a Risky World: key findings
- Fiscal positions have worsened significantly in the past year, with public debt ratios being revised upward in most countries.
- Revisions have been largest in emerging market and middle-income economies, where fiscal deficit ratios in 2015–16 are now expected to exceed the levels observed at the beginning of the global financial crisis.
- In advanced economies, the projected peak in public debt has been postponed once again by one year.
- Main forces driving deterioration of debt dynamics:
- Continued weakness in global activity.
- Decline in commodity prices.
- Slowdown in trade.
- Tighter financial conditions in emerging market and developing economies.
- All countries need to adapt to new realities; there is no one-size-fits-all solution. The appropriate policy response varies across countries and depends on the nature of the fiscal challenge they face.
Chapter 1 sections and analytical components (listed in source)
- Worsening Fiscal Trends
- Advanced Economies: Growing Divergences in Fiscal Policy
- Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: Tough Policy Adjustments Ahead
- Low-Income Developing Countries: Riding Out the Turning Tide
- Fiscal Risks on the Rise
- Responding to New Realities
- Boxes: 1.1–1.4 (including The Fiscal Implications of Slowing Global Trade; The Fiscal Response to the Refugee Influx in Europe; Contingent Liabilities; Developing a Fiscal Risk Management Framework)
- Figures and Tables covering revisions and fiscal indicators for the periods 2007–21, 2009–17, and 2016–18 as specified in the source
Chapter 2 — Fiscal Policies for Innovation and Growth: key messages and recommendations
- Productivity has moved to the top of the global policy agenda.
- Fiscal policy is a potent instrument for productivity growth through innovation, focused on three channels: research and development (R&D), technology transfer, and entrepreneurship.
- Key policy messages (verbatim from source):
- "Governments in many countries should do more to promote R&D, for example, by providing well-designed subsidies and tax incentives. If R&D were lifted by 40 percent, GDP could rise by 5 percent in the long term."
- "In emerging market and developing economies, governments should invest in education, infrastructure, and institutions to facilitate absorption of technologies from advanced economies."
- "Fiscal policies to foster innovative entrepreneurship should be targeted to new firms rather than small firms."
- Chapter 2 analytical structure and annexes (listed in source):
- Using Fiscal Policies to Spur Innovation
- Supporting Research and Development
- Fostering Technology Transfer
- Promoting Entrepreneurship
- Conclusion
- Annex 2.1–2.4 (Fiscal Policy, R&D, TFP growth; Corrective Fiscal Incentives for R&D; Taxation and FDI; Taxation and Entrepreneurship)
- Topic boxes and figures (2.1–2.5, 2.6–2.18) and tables (including Table 2.1.1 Benefits and Costs of Patents)
- Empirical and policy tools highlighted:
- Well-designed subsidies and tax incentives for R&D.
- Public investment in education, infrastructure, and institutions to aid technology absorption.
- Targeted support for new-firm entrepreneurship rather than across-the-board small-firm support.
- Consideration of patenting, green innovation, preferential tax treatment of income from intellectual property, and country-specific innovation programs (including BRICS and programs for young innovators and start-ups).
Methodology, data coverage, and appendices (high level)
- Methodological and Statistical Appendix includes:
- Data and Conventions
- Fiscal Policy Assumptions
- Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Data
- Economy groupings and coverage tables are provided for:
- Advanced Economies, Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies, Low-Income Developing Countries
- Extensive tables A1–A25 and country-level series covering 2007–21 (balances, revenue, expenditure, gross and net debt, and structural fiscal indicators) are included in the publication.
International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Monitor, April 2016
Content in this bundle
- ملخص واف لتقرير الراصد المالي
- تقرير الراصد المالي: التكيف مع الواقع الجديد - نشرة الصندوق الإلكترونية
- 戮力同心，立即行动起来; iMFdirect博客; 2016 年4 月13 日
- 财政监测报告概要
- Moniteur des finances publiques : Résumé analytique - Avril 2016
- 財政モニター, 2016年4月: 要旨
- Now Is the Time: Fiscal Policies for Sustainable Growth, Fiscal Monitor, April 2015
- Acting Now, Acting Together, Fiscal Monitor, April 2016
- Acting Now, Acting Together, Fiscal Monitor, April 2016
- Assumptions and Conventions, Fiscal Monitor, April 2016
- IMF Executive Board Discussion Summary, Fiscal Monitor, April 2016
- Chapter 1. Navigating a Risky World, Fiscal Monitor, April 2016
- Chapter 2: Fiscal Policies for Innovation and Growth, Fiscal Monitor, April 2016
- Country Abbreviations, Fiscal Monitor, April 2016
- Executive Summary, Fiscal Monitor, April 2016
- Executive Summary, Fiscal Monitor, April 2016
- Glossary, Fiscal Monitor, April 2016
- Preface, Fiscal Monitor, April 2016
- Fiscal Monitor, Selected Topics, Fiscal Monitor, April 2016
- Methodological and Statistical Appendix, Fiscal Monitor, April 2016
- Действовать сейчас, действовать сообща; Витор Гаспар и Люк Эро; 13 апреля 2016 года
- Аналитическое резюме - Бюджетный вестник, апрель 2016 года
- Monitor Fiscal: Resumen Ejecutivo - Abril de 2016
References
- Coping With a New Reality
- Blog: Act Now, Act Together
- Blog: Imagine What Fiscal Policy Could Do For Innovation
- Transcript of the Press Conference on the Release of the April 2016 Fiscal Monitor
- Fiscal Monitor Reports
- Fiscal Monitor Database
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