IMF Global Financial Stability Report -- Navigating the Financial Challenges Ahead -- October 2009 -- Contents
Global Financial Stability Report, September 30, 2009
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Bibliographic details
- Published: September 30, 2009
- Series: Global Financial Stability Report
Overview
- The report chronicles the evolution of the path toward reestablishing sound credit intermediation and highlights near-term risks that could interrupt its restoration, including the rising burden of sovereign financing.
- It addresses how to restart securitization markets and the pitfalls if done improperly.
- It evaluates the effectiveness of unconventional public sector interventions and outlines principles for disengagement.
- It discusses the design of medium-term policies aimed at reshaping the financial system to make it more resilient and stable.
Key findings and risks
- Restoring sound credit intermediation remains central to recovery; constraints on credit could hurt the recovery if not addressed.
- The rising burden of sovereign financing is identified as a near-term risk that could interrupt restoration of intermediation.
- Restarting securitization markets is critical to supporting the supply of credit, but doing so improperly carries significant pitfalls.
- Transfer of private risks to sovereign balance sheets is an important vulnerability requiring careful management.
- Unconventional public sector interventions had measurable effects on markets; their effectiveness and longer-term consequences must inform exit strategies.
- Emerging markets navigated the global crisis but remain exposed to residual vulnerabilities in the global environment.
Policy implications and recommendations
- Restart securitization only under frameworks that mitigate moral hazard and align incentives to avoid past failures.
- Manage sovereign-financing pressures proactively to prevent sovereign stress from propagating to financial instability.
- Design disengagement strategies for unconventional interventions based on empirical assessment of market reactions and longer-term effects.
- Implement medium-term reforms to reshape the financial system to increase resilience, including restoring the level and quality of bank capital and addressing structural vulnerabilities in nonbank intermediaries.
- Monitor and address underfunding issues in pension and insurance sectors as part of the broader financial stability agenda.
Analytical focus and methodologies
- The report employs a Global Financial Stability Map and a range of stress and risk indicators to assess systemic risks.
- It estimates loan losses, bank writedowns, and core bank earnings to quantify balance-sheet shortfalls and policy needs.
- The analysis includes event-study methodologies to evaluate market reactions to interventions and longer-term effects.
- Annexes and a statistical appendix provide construction and methodological detail on mappings, estimations, and models used to support findings.
IMF Global Financial Stability Report -- Navigating the Financial Challenges Ahead -- October 2009 -- Contents
Content in this bundle
- figure1_1
- Figure 1.10. Bank Problem Loans and Income, end-2008
- Figure 1.11. Bank Earnings
- Figure 1.12. Bank Capital Needs
- Figure 1.13. Mature Market Banks: Bond Debt Maturity Structure
- Figure 1.14. Mature Markets: Gross and guaranteed Bond Issuance by Month
- Figure 1.15. European Central Bank Refinancing Facilities
- Figure 1.16. Global Bank and Insurance Equity Indices
- Funding Levels of Defined Benefit Pension Plans of Companies in Major Equity Indices
- figure1_18
- Figure 1.19. Contributions to Changes in Emerging Market Sovereign External Spreads
- figure1_2
- Figure 1.20. Emerging Europe Credit Default Swap Spreads, June 30, 2008 to August 31, 2009
- Figure 1.21. Net Capital Inflows
- Dataset overview
- Figure 1.23. Refinancing Needs of Emerging Market Forex-Denominated Corporate Debt
- Figure 1.24. Emerging Market External Bond Issuance by Sector and Rating
- Figure 1.25. Rollover Rate of Emerging Market Forex-Denominated Corporate Debt
- figure1_26
- Figure 1.27. Emerging Europe: Nonperforming Loan Ratios
- figure1_28
- Figure 1.29. Growth of Nonfinancial Sector Debt: History and Projected Borrowing Needs
- Figure 1.3. Contributions to Changes in Corporate Spreads
- Figure 1.30. Bank Lending Capacity Growth
- Figure1 31
- Figure 1.32. Net Sovereign Debt Issuance in Mature Markets
- Figure 1.33. Emerging Market Sovereign Issuance in International Capital Markets
- figure1_34a
- Figure 1.34. Global Financial Stability Map: Monetary and Financial Conditions
- figure1_34c
- Figure 1.34. Global Financial Stability Map: Monetary and Financial Conditions
- Figure 1.34. Global Financial Stability Map: Monetary and Financial Conditions
- figure1_35a — Dataset overview
- Figure 1.35. Global Financial Stability Map: Risk Appetite
- Figure 1.35. Global Financial Stability Map: Risk Appetite
- Figure 1.36. Global Financial Stability Map
- dataset overview
- figure1_36c
- Figure 1.36. Global Financial Stability Map: Macroeconomic Risks
- Figure 1.36. Global Financial Stability Map: Macroeconomic Risks
- figure1_36f
- Figure 1.37. Global Financial Stability Map: Emerging Market Risks
- dataset overview
- figure1_37c
- Figure 1.37. Global Financial Stability Map: Emerging Market Risks
- dataset overview
- Dataset overview
- Figure 1.38. Global Financial Stability Map: Credit Risks
- Figure 1.38. Global Financial Stability Map: Credit Risks
- Figure 1.38. Global Financial Stability Map: Credit Risks
- Figure 1.42. Global Financial Stability Map: Credit Risks
- figure1_38f
- Figure 1.39. Global Financial Stability Map: Market and Liquidity Risks
- figure1_39b: Absolute Volume of Net Noncommercial Positions in U.S. Futures Markets
- Figure 1.39. Global Financial Stability Map: Market and Liquidity Risks
- Figure 1.39. Global Financial Stability Map: Market and Liquidity Risks
- figure1_39e
- Dataset overview: figure1_39f
- Figure 1.4. Systemic Bank Default Risk
- Figure 1.40. Provisions for Loan Losses
- Figure 1.41. Estimated Share of Euro Are Bank Losses
- Figure 1.42. Estimated Breakdown of Securities Exposure of Euro Area Banks
- Figure 1.43. Growth of Nonbank Fixed Income Assets Under Management
- Figure 1.44. Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Spreads
- Figure 1.45. Worsening Funding Ratio of U.S. Defined-Benefit Plans in 2008
- Figure 1.5. Asset Price Volatility and Funding and Market Liquidity
- figure1_6
- figure1_7
- Figure 1.8. Euro Area: Provision Rates
- figure1_9
- Table 1.1. Credit Market Spreads
- Table1 11
- Table 1.12. Statistical Output for the Euro Area Provision Rate Model
- Table 1.13. Forecasts of Euro Area Provision Rates by Loan Type
- Table 1.14. Statistical Output for the U.K. Provision Rate Model
- Table 1.15. Cumulative Loss Rates, 2007-10
- Dataset overview: table1_16
- Figure 1.17. Euro Area Residential Mortgage Securities
- Table 1.18. U.S. Residential Securities Market
- Table 1.2. Estimates of Global Bank Writedowns by Domicile
- Table 1.20. Underfunding Is More Serious in Mature U.S. Industries
- Table 1.21. Mandatory Defined Contribution Pension Assets, Selected Countries
- Table 1.23. Equity Share in Total Portfolios, Selected Countries
- Table 1.23. Real Performance of Mandatory Defined Contribution Systems, Selected Countries
- Table 1.24. Performance of Default Investment Options, Selected Countries
- Table 1.3. Bank Capital, Earnings, and Writedowns
- Table 1.5. Growth of Credit Demand from Nonfinancial Private Sector
- Table 1.6. Total Net Borrowing Needs of Nonfinancial Sectors
- Table 1.7. Projections of Credit Capacity for and Demand from the Nonfinancial Sector
- Table 1.8. Selected Spreads: Current and Pre-Lehman Brothers
- Table 1.9. Sensitivity to Common Risk Factor For Euro Area Countries
- dataset overview
- Figure 2.10. Selected Covered Bond Spreads
- Figure 2.12. Where Did All the AAAs Go?
- figure2_13
- Figure 2.2. Global Private-Label Securitization Issuance by Type
- Figure 2.3. U.S. Private-Label Securitization Issuance by Type
- Figure 2.4. Europen Private-Label Securitization Issuance by Type
- Figure 2.5. U.S. Asset-Backed Security
- Figure 2.6. Credit Spreads on U.S. AAA Securitization Instruments
- Figure 2.7. U.S. GSE versus Private-Label MBS Issuance
- Figure 2.8. Non-U.S. and Non-European Private-Label Securitization Issuance
- Figure 2.9. Global Covered Bond Issuance
- boxfigure3_1 — Outstanding Amount of the U.S. Federal Reserve's Operations
- Dataset: Figure 3.10. Impact of Financial Sector Stabilization Measures on Credit Default Swap
- Figure 3.11. Mortgage Rates
- Figure 3.12. Banking Sector Current Account Balance with the Bank of Japan
- Figure 3.13. Failed Banks Assissted by Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan
- Figure 3.14. Three-Month Spread Between TIBOR and LIBOR
- Figure 3.15. Japan: Bank Loans and the Consumer Price Index
- Figure 3.16. Changes in Major Components of Central Banks Balance Sheet
- figure3_6 — United States: Outstanding Amount of Commercial Paper
- Figure 3.7. Securitization in the United States and Europe
- Figure 3.8. Credit Growth and Bank Lending Standards
- Figure 1. Major Net Exporters and Importers of Capital in 2008
- Figure 10. Flows into U.S.-Based Equity Funds
- Figure 11. United States: Corporate Bond Market
- Figure 12. Europe: Corporate Bond Market
- Figure 13. United States: Commercial Paper Market
- Figure 14. United States: Asset-Backed Securities
- Figure 15. Emerging Market Volatility Measures
- Figure 1.16 Emerging Market Debt Cross-Correlation Measures
- Figure 2. Exchange Rates: Selected Major Industrial Countries
- Figure 3. United States: Yields on Corporate and Treasury Bonds
- Figure 4. Selected Spreads
- Figure 5. Nonfinancial Corporate Credit Spreads
- Figure 5. Nonfinancial Corporate Credit Spreads
- Figure 7. Implied and Historical Volatility in Equity Markets
- Figure 8. Historical Volatility of Government Bond Yields and Bond Returns for Selected Countries
- Figure 9. Twelve-Month Forward Price/Earnings Ratios
- Table 1. Global Financial Flows: Inflows and Outflows1
- Table 10. Equity Market Indices
- Table 11. Foreign Exchange Rates
- Table 12. Emerging Market Bond Index: EMBI Global Total Returns Index
- Table 13. Emerging Market Bond Index: EMBI Global Yield Spreads
- Table 14. Emerging Market External Financing: Total Bonds, Equities, and Loans
- Table 15. Emerging Market External Financing: Bond Issuance
- Table 16. Emerging Market External Finance: Equity Issuance
- Sa Table17
- Table 18. Equity Valuation Measures: Dividend-Yield Ratios
- Table 19. Equity Valuation Measures: Price-to-Book Ratios
- Sa Table2
- Table 20. Equity Valuation Measures: Price/Earnings Ratios
- Table 21. Emerging Markets: Mutual Fund Flows
- Table 22. Bank Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets
- Table 23. Bank Capital to Assets
- Table 24. Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Loans
- Table 25. Bank Provisions to Nonperforming Loans
- Table 26. Bank Return on Assets
- Table 27. Bank Return on Equity
- Table 3. Selected Indicators on the Size of the Capital Markets, 2008
- Sa Table4
- Sa Table5
- Sa Table6
- Table 7. United States: Sectoral Balance Sheets
- Table 8. Japan: Sectoral Balance Sheets1
- Table 9. Europe: Sectoral Balance Sheets1
- موجز للصحافة عن التقرير الاستقرار المالي العالمي
- ملخص واف للتقرير الاستقرار المالي العالمي
- 2009年10月期《全球金融稳定报告》新闻发布要点
- 2009年10月全球金融稳定报告 -- 概要
- Rapport sur la stabilité financière dans le monde
- Rapport sur la stabilité financière dans le monde : Résumé analytique -- Octobre 2009.
- 国際金融安定報告書
- 国際金融安定性報告書(GFSR) 2009 年 9 月 -- 要旨
- Presstpdf
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- figure 1_3
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- Boxfigure24pdf
- figure210pdf
- Figure 2.12. Where Did All the AAAs Go?
- Figure 2.13. U.S. Issuance of Asset-Backed and Mortgage-Backed Securities
- Figure 2.2. Global Private-Label Securitization — Issuance by Type
- Figure 2.3. U.S. Private-Label Securitization — Issuance by Type
- figure24pdf
- figure25pdf
- Figure 2.6. Credit Spreads on U.S. AAA Securitization Instruments (In basis points)
- figure27pdf
- figure28pdf
- Figure 2.9. Global Covered Bond Issuance
- Outstanding Amount of U.S. Federal Reserve’s Operations (In billions of U.S. dollars)
- Figure 3.10. Impact of Financial Sector Stabilization Measures on Credit Default Swap (CDS) Spreads
- Figure 3.11. Mortgage Rates
- Figure 3.12. Banking Sector Current Account Balance with the Bank of Japan
- Figure 3.13. Failed Banks Assisted by Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan (In numbers)
- Figure 3.14. Three-Month Spread between TIBOR and LIBOR
- Figure 3.15. Japan: Bank Loans and the Consumer Price Index
- Figure 3.16. Changes in the Major Components of Central Banks’ Balance Sheet (In percent of nominal GDP in 2008)
- Figure 3.6. United States: Outstanding Amount of Commercial Paper (In billions of U.S. dollars; seasonally adjusted)
- Figure 3.7. Securitization in the United States and Europe
- Figure 3.8. Credit Growth and Bank Lending Standards
- CHAPTER 1 — THE RoAd To RECoVERY
- CHAPTER 2 RESTARTIng SECURITIzATIon MARKETS: polICY pRopoSAlS And pITfAllS
- CHAPTER 3 MARKET InTERVEnTIonS dURIng THE fInAnCIAl CRISIS: How EffECTIVE And How To dISEngAgE?
- contentspdf
- GLOSSARY
- PREFACE
- Press Points for Chapter 1: Navigating the Financial Challenges Ahead
- Press Points for Chapter 2:
- Press Points for Chapter 3: Market Interventions During the Financial Crisis: How Effective and How to Disengage?
- Press Points (Chapters 1–3): Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), October 2009
- STATISTICAL APPENDIX (statappxpdf)
- Prospects for the Road Ahead
- Navigating the Financial Challenges Ahead -- Global Financial Stability Report
- SA figure10
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- Sa figure16
- Sa figure1
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- Тезисы для прессы по главе 1. Решение предстоящих финансовых задач
- Доклад по вопросам глобальной финансовой стабильности -- Октябрь 2009 года -- АНАЛИТИЧЕСКОЕ РЕЗЮМЕ
- Informe sobre la estabilidad financiera mundial, Octubre de 2009 - Notas de prensa.
- Informe sobre la estabilidad financiera mundial: Resumen general -- Octubre de 2009
References
- http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/about.htm
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