Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2011 -- Table of Contents
Middle East and Central Asia, October 26, 2011
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- Published: October 26, 2011
- Series: Middle East and Central Asia
Overview and Main Messages
- The Arab Spring "holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region."
- The region is also "witnessing uncertainty and economic pressures from domestic and external sources, which will likely be exacerbated by the recent worsening of the global economy."
- "The main challenge in the short term will be to manage expectations while maintaining economic stability."
- Policy priorities identified:
- "Better-targeted subsidies and transfers will help free up resources for investment in infrastructure, education, and health."
- "Policies aimed at fostering inclusive growth will also help cement the longer-term benefits of the ongoing changes in the region."
MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan)
- Structure:
- MENAP Highlights
- Chapter 1: MENAP Oil Exporters: Benefiting from High Oil Prices amid Growing Risks
- Chapter 2: MENAP Oil Importers: Meeting Social Needs, Restoring Economic Confidence
- Annexes: Annex 1.1; Annex 2.1; Annex 2.2
- Key points from Chapter 1 (MENAP Oil Exporters):
- "Gradual Recovery Continues"
- "Fiscal Expansion Continues, with New Vigor in the Social Sector"
- "Fiscal, External Balances Improve despite Higher Spending"
- "Financial Conditions Point to Increased Regional, Global Risk"
- "Banks Gain Strength, but Credit Recovery Remains Subdued"
- "Inflationary Pressures Modest amid High Commodity Prices"
- "Echoes of 2008, but with Key Differences in Risk Tolerance"
- Policy focus: "Designing Fiscal Policy for the Long Haul"; "Monetary Policy for Stability and Growth"; "Structural Reforms Should Continue"
- Key points from Chapter 2 (MENAP Oil Importers):
- "Sharp Downturn to Last through 2012"
- "Inflation Remains Stable as Food and Fuel Subsidies Rise"
- "External Balances Are Worsening"
- "Financial Markets Have Taken a Hit"
- "Spending Escalates with Universal Subsidies Rising Sharply"
- "Fiscal Deficits Increasingly Financed from Domestic Sources"
- "The Road Ahead Is Challenging"
- Policy focus: "The Way Forward to Inclusive Growth"
- Selected analytic boxes relevant to MENAP:
- 1.1 Libyan Revolution: Economic Impact and Challenges Ahead
- 1.2 Sudan and South Sudan: Beyond the Breakup
- 1.3 Labor Markets in the GCC
- 2.1 Mitigating the Impact of High Energy Prices: Oil Importers as Commodity Exporters
- 2.2 Global Linkages and Regional Spillovers from the Slowdown in Europe
- 2.3 MENAP Oil Importers: Domestic Fuel Pricing
- 2.4 Who Benefits from Energy Subsidies? Evidence from Jordan and Mauritania
Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA)
- Structure:
- CCA Highlights
- Chapter 3: Caucasus and Central Asia: Safeguarding the Recovery (version in Русский)
- Annex 3.1
- Key messages:
- "Recovery Gaining Speed"
- "Growth Outlook Broadly Positive, but with Downside Risks"
- "Inflation Remains Elevated in Several Countries"
- "Policy Options and Challenges"
- Differentiated discussion for "Oil and Gas Importers" and "Oil and Gas Exporters"
- "Medium-Term Challenges: Jobs and Inclusive Growth"
- Selected analytic boxes relevant to the CCA:
- 3.1 Regional Spillovers from Russia’s Economic Recovery
- 3.2 Remittances and Tax Revenues in CCA Countries
- 3.3 Unemployment in the South Caucasus: The Challenge of Making Growth More Inclusive
- 3.4 Business Environment and Governance in the CCA
Figures, Tables, and Statistical Appendix (selected entries listed in contents)
- Notable figure titles and themes:
- "On the Back of High Oil Prices, the Recovery Continues"
- "Strong Fluctuations in Oil Sector GDP, Non-Oil Remains Steady"
- "Non-Oil Fiscal Deficits Have Been Widening in Most Countries"
- "Most Oil Exporters Have Ramped Up Spending"
- "Despite Higher Spending, Fiscal Balances Improve in Most Countries"
- "Current Account Balances Improve Further"
- "Sovereign Risk Levels Still Elevated"
- "GCC Countries: Spillover Coefficient from Financial Distress in Other MENA Countries"
- "Stock Market Indices Still Not Back to Pre-Lehman Levels"
- "Financial Stability Improving, but Vulnerabilities Still Present"
- "GCC Credit Growth Is Still Mostly Subdued ... Although Deposits Are Picking Up"
- "Some Inflationary Pressures in the Oil Exporters ... But Inflation Still Subdued in the GCC"
- "Fiscal Break-Even Oil Prices Have Been Creeping Upward"
- "New Spending Measures Announced in 2011" (Table)
- Statistical Appendix includes tables numbered 1 through 23, covering:
- Real GDP Growth; Nominal GDP; Oil Exporters: Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth; Oil Exporters: Crude Oil Production and Exports; Consumer Price Inflation; Core Consumer Price Inflation; Broad Money Growth; General Government Fiscal Balance; General Government Total Revenue, Excluding Grants; Oil Exporters: General Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance; Oil Exporters: General Government Non-Oil Revenue; General Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending; Total Government Gross Debt; Selected MENAP Countries: Total Government Net Debt; Exports of Goods and Services; Imports of Goods and Services; Current Account Balance (Billion U.S. dollars); Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP); Gross Official Reserves; Total Gross External Debt; Capital Adequacy Ratios; Return on Assets; Nonperforming Loans
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2011 — Table of Contents
Content in this bundle
- الفصلين 1 و2 لآفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان
- آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان : أضواء على أهم الأحداث
- عرض عن آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى، عدد أكتوبر 2011
- 2011 年10 月中东和中亚《地区经济展望》高加索和中亚地区要点, 2011 年10 月 31 日
- Perspectives économiques régionales – Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord; Octobre 2011
- Perspectives économiques régionales – Moyen-Orient, Afrique du Nord, Afghanistan et Pakistan
- Moyen-Orient et Asie centrale: Perspectives économiques régionales; Octobre 2011
- Caucasus and Central Asia
- Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook; October 2011
- Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia: Safeguarding the Recovery
- MENAP Highlights
- Middle East and Central Asia: Regional Economic Outlook; October 2011
- Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2011
- Oilexporterspdf
- 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Meeting Social Needs, Restoring Economic Confidence
- Кавказ и Центральная Азия
- Основные положения по странам КЦА
- Кавказ и Центральная Азия: Перспективы развития региональной экономики; Октябрь 2011 года
References
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- Blog: Mideast Braces Itself for a Multi-Year Transition
- Press Release: IMF Sees Varied Outlook for Mideast, with Oil-Importing Countries Facing Continued Economic Pressures
- IMF Survey: Mideast Outlook Varies Markedly Across Region
- Blog: What to Do About Unemployment in the Caucasus and Central Asia
- Press Release: Caucasus, Central Asia Set for Robust Growth, But Global Risks Weigh
- IMF Survey: Caucasus, Central Asia Set for Robust Growth, But Global Risks Weigh
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