IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) — Transitions and Tensions, October 2013 — Table of Contents

World Economic Outlook, October 7, 2013

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Bibliographic details

Published: October 7, 2013
Series: World Economic Outlook

Global outlook and main messages

Global growth is in low gear.
Drivers of activity are changing, raising new policy challenges.
Advanced economies are growing again but must:
- continue financial sector repair,
- pursue fiscal consolidation,
- spur job growth.
Emerging market economies face:
- the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions.
The issue examines potential spillovers from these transitions and appropriate policy responses.

Analytical focus and chapter highlights

Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies
- Themes: Growth Dynamics Further Diverge; External Sector Developments; Policy Challenges; Rebalancing Global Demand.
- Special Feature: Commodity Market Review, including boxes on booms and the current account, oil price drivers and the narrowing WTI-Brent spread, and country-specific analyses such as Abenomics.
Chapter 2: Country and Regional Perspectives
- Regional assessments: The United States and Canada; Europe; Asia; Latin America and the Caribbean; Commonwealth of Independent States; Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan; Sub-Saharan Africa.
- Emphasis on 2013 GDP growth forecasts and the effects of a plausible downside scenario.
Chapter 3: Dancing Together? Spillovers, Common Shocks, and the Role of Financial and Trade Linkages
- Explores evolution of output comovements and influence of:
- policy shocks (unexpected monetary or fiscal tightening),
- financial shocks (systemic banking crisis or renewed financial turmoil),
- growth surprises in advanced economies or large emerging markets.
- Sections: conceptual framework, role of common shocks and linkages, spillovers of country-specific shocks, summary and implications.
- Empirical coverage spans periods and measures including 2004–12, 1978–2012, and growth surprise and shock decompositions.
Chapter 4: The Yin and Yang of Capital Flow Management: Balancing Capital Inflows with Capital Outflows
- Investigates why some emerging market economies avoided classical boom-and-bust cycles during the global financial crisis by domestic residents drawing down foreign assets to replace foreign capital.
- Focus areas: financial adjustment and resilience; how more resilient economies differ; case studies (Chile, Malaysia, The Czech Republic); overall analysis.
- Includes simulation: Box 4.1 Simulating Vulnerability to International Capital Market Conditions.

Key datasets, tables, and figures referenced

Assumptions and Conventions; Further Information and Data; Statistical Appendix.
Numerous tables and figures covering:
- Real GDP Growth, Inflation, Fiscal Policies, Financial Market Conditions, Capital Flows, Exchange Rates and Reserves, Global Trade and Imbalances, Risks to the Global Outlook.
Select numeric and period references in the table of contents:
- Time spans and datasets: 2004–12; 1978–2012; 2011–13; 2012; 2013.
- Country and group tables labeled A through F and numbered tables A1–A16, B1–B27.
- Specific figure and table identifiers (examples): 1.SF.1; 1.SF.2; 1.1.1; 3.1; 3.2.1; 3.16.a; 4.1.1.

Policy implications and recommendations (as presented)

Advanced economies:
- Continue repair of the financial sector.
- Pursue fiscal consolidation consistent with growth and debt dynamics.
- Implement policies to spur job growth.
Emerging market economies:
- Manage the transition of slower growth and tighter global financial conditions.
- Consider policies and institutions that enhance resilience to volatile capital flows, including ways to encourage domestic residents to offset foreign outflows.
Cross-border and global policy focus:
- Monitor and assess spillovers from policy, financial, and growth shocks in major economies.
- Account for trade and financial linkages when designing national policies to reduce adverse international spillovers.

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) — Transitions and Tensions, October 2013 — Table of Contents

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References

https://www.imf.org/en/home