A Glimpse of the Future

IMF Blog, November 30, 2015

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Personal reflection on a drive east out of Los Angeles through the San Gorgonio Pass on Interstate 10.
The pass is described as "one of the windiest places in the United States" and is home to the San Gorgonio Pass Wind Farm, an array of more than 4,000 turbines that harness wind to produce "clean"—non-fossil-fuel-based—energy.
The scene prompts questions about whether widespread wind turbines are part of a sustainable energy future and how to balance the massive need for energy to power economic growth and development with the urgent need to sharply reduce carbon emissions.

Raises the polarized debate that frequently puts growth and sustainable energy in opposition.
Questions posed:
- Are growth and a more sustainable mix of energy sources really enemies?
- Can a more benign mix of energy sources and technology bring power to the 1.3 billion people who don't have it?
Notes that these questions were a motivation for the issue of F&D, especially in the context of December’s United Nations climate summit in Paris.

Nicholas Stern (London School of Economics): argues the twin challenges of fighting poverty and climate change are not mutually exclusive.
Peter Poschen (International Labour Organization): argues we need not choose between green policies and jobs.
Ian Parry (IMF economist): examines practical problems of setting a price for carbon that reflects its true costs.
F&D analysis: reviews the four major declines in oil prices in the past 30 years and finds an "eerie similarity" today to the prolonged slump that began in 1986.
Additional articles and topics highlighted:
- Paul Collier and coauthors: costs of treating and preventing HIV/AIDS in Africa.
- Examination of the high penalty countries pay when they default on sovereign debt, challenging the conventional wisdom that the costs of default are minimal.
- Analysis of the adverse effect elections have on intelligent decision making about public investment.
- Discussion of the increasingly common practice of offering citizenship "for sale."
- Coverage of China’s investment in Africa.
- Profile of economist Richard Layard, who argues economics has strayed from promoting happiness and maximizing well-being.

IMFBlog is a forum for the views of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and officials on pressing economic and policy issues of the day.
The IMF is based in Washington D.C. and is an organization of 191 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation and financial stability around the world.
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF and its Executive Board.

Jeff Hayden — November 30, 2015