Africa’s Fragile States Are Greatest Climate Change Casualties

IMF Blog, August 30, 2023

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Authors: Jihad Azour, Abebe Aemro Selassie
Published: August 30, 2023

Overview and context

Publication date: August 30, 2023.
Core argument: Climate change imposes disproportionately larger human, economic, and social costs on fragile and conflict-affected states in Africa, which have contributed the least to climate change.
Drivers of disproportionate impact: geographical location with higher temperatures, conflict, dependence on rainfed agriculture, and lower capacity to manage risks and finance adaptation.

Key findings and statistics

Each year, three times more people are affected by natural disasters in fragile states than in other countries.
Disasters in fragile states displace more than twice the share of the population in other countries.
By 2040, fragile states could face 61 days a year of temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius on average—four times more than other countries.
A new IMF paper finds cumulative losses in gross domestic product reach about 4 percent in fragile states three years after extreme weather events, compared with around 1 percent in other countries.
Droughts in fragile states are expected to cut about 0.2 percentage points from their per-capita GDP growth every year.
In a high emissions scenario, and all else equal, deaths from conflict as a share of the population could increase by close to 10 percent in fragile countries by 2060.
Climate change would push an additional 50 million people in fragile states into hunger by 2060.
Agriculture represents close to one-quarter of economic output in fragile states, but only 3 percent of cultivated areas are irrigated with canals, reservoirs, and the like.
Sudan’s Gezira irrigation scheme once covered 8,000 square kilometers of fecund farmland but has shrunk to less than half that area owing to poor maintenance.

Mechanisms amplifying impact in fragile states

Geographic exposure: fragile states are located in hotter parts of the planet and face more frequent extreme weather events.
Conflict effects: conflict undermines delivery of humanitarian assistance and maintenance of infrastructure (example: areas controlled by terrorist groups in Somalia impeded assistance during the 2021-22 drought).
Agricultural vulnerability: high dependence on rainfed agriculture and limited, poorly maintained irrigation infrastructure increase susceptibility to droughts and floods.
Financial constraints: limited domestic financial capacity to fund adaptation and recovery amplifies long-term losses.

Macroeconomic consequences

Larger and more persistent GDP losses after extreme weather events in fragile states (about 4 percent cumulative loss three years after events).
Ongoing negative growth impacts from recurrent droughts (0.2 percentage points lower per-capita GDP growth every year).
Risk of widening income gaps between fragile states and other countries due to persistent climate-related losses.

Policy considerations and recommendations

Build fiscal and financial buffers to facilitate immediate response and faster recovery:
- Increase domestic revenues.
- Lower public debt and deficits.
- Maintain higher international reserves.
Strengthen social safety nets and leverage insurance schemes to finance recovery from catastrophic events.
Implement policies to build climate resilience over time, including scaling up climate-resilient infrastructure investments.
International support is critical because adaptation financing needs exceed what fragile and conflict-affected countries can afford on their own:
- Sizable and sustained concessional financing and capacity development from international development partners are urgent to avoid worsening hunger, conflict, forced displacement, and migration.
IMF role: provide tailored policy advice, financial assistance, capacity development, and synergies with other partners; deliver financial support through standard facilities, emergency financing, and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility.

Strategic implication

Without substantial and coordinated international action, climate change risks deepening fragility in affected African states—aggravating conflict, hunger, displacement, and long-term economic divergence.

Source: “Africa’s Fragile States Are Greatest Climate Change Casualties,” IMF blog, August 30, 2023 — https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/08/30/africas-fragile-states-are-greatest-climate-change-casualties