Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

By Laura Jaramillo, Aliona Cebotari, Yoro Diallo, Rhea Gupta, Yugo Koshima, Chandana Kularatne, Jeong Dae Lee, Sidra Rehman, Kalin I Tintchev, Fang Yang

August 30, 2023

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Laura Jaramillo, Aliona Cebotari, Yoro Diallo, Rhea Gupta, Yugo Koshima, Chandana Kularatne, Jeong Dae Lee, Sidra Rehman, Kalin I Tintchev, and Fang Yang. Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2023) accessed October 6, 2024

Summary

Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) already face higher temperatures than other countries and will be more exposed to extreme heat and weather events going forward. Using innovative approaches, the paper finds that in FCS, climate vulnerability and underlying fragilities—namely conflict, heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture, and weak capacity—exacerbate each other, amplifying the negative impact on people and economies. FCS suffer more severe and persistent GDP losses than other countries due to climate shocks because their underlying fragilities amplify the impact of shocks, in particular in agriculture. At the same time, climate shocks worsen underlying fragilities, namely conflict. Macro-critical adaptation policies are needed to facilitate the immediate response to climate shocks and to build climate resilience over time. Sizeable and sustained international support—especially grants, concessional financing and capacity development—is urgent to avoid worse outcomes, including forced displacement and migration. The IMF is stepping up support to FCS in dealing with climate challenges through carefully tailored policy advice, financing, and capacity development.

Subject: Climate change, Climate finance, Climate policy, Economic sectors, Environment, Financial crises, Natural disasters, Population and demographics

Keywords: Adaptation, Climate adaptation policy, Climate change, Climate finance, Climate policy, Climate resilience overtime, Climate vulnerability, Conflict, Financing climate adaptation, Food security, Fragile and Conflict-Affected States, Global, IMF staff climate note, Natural disasters, Resilience

Publication Details

Pages:

51
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Staff Climate Note No 2023/001
Stock No:

CLNEA2023001
ISBN:

9798400252082
ISSN:

2789-0600

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