IMF Staff Completes 2022 Article IV Mission to Côte d’Ivoire

IMF News, April 15, 2022

Source details

Mission led by Mr. Luca Antonio Ricci; Article IV consultation discussions held during April 5 ‒15, 2022.
End-of-Mission press release conveying preliminary findings; views are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the IMF’s Executive Board.
IMF team met with Prime Minister Patrick Achi and a broad set of ministers, BCEAO National Director Chalouho Coulibaly, other senior government and BCEAO officials, and representatives of the business and donor communities.

COVID-related fatalities described as "low by international standards."
Vaccination status: "about half of the target population having received a first dose so far."
Growth:
- 2020: slowed to 2 percent.
- 2021: estimated recovery to 7 percent, driven by a rebound in consumption and investment.
- 2022 IMF staff forecast: growth to slow to 6 percent due to subdued global demand, deterioration of the terms of trade, and increased uncertainty.
Inflation:
- Reached 5.6 percent in December 2021, mainly reflecting a surge in global prices.
- Declined to 4.5 percent in March (2022).
Fiscal balance:
- Overall fiscal deficit reached 5.1 percent of GDP in 2021—½ percent of GDP lower than anticipated in the budget—mainly owing to gains from strengthened tax administration and ongoing digitalization efforts, which offset higher security spending.

Main downside external risks identified:
- Global repercussions of the war in Ukraine.
- Tighter monetary policy in advanced countries and associated increase in borrowing cost.
- Continued instability in some neighboring countries.
Upside risks noted:
- Recent substantial oil and gas discovery.
- Resolute implementation of reforms under the 2021-25 National Development Plan (NDP).
Authorities' temporary measures in response to the war in Ukraine:
- Price ceilings on several food items.
- Subsidies on petroleum products.
- Permit requirements for exporting some staple foods.
Staff advice on these measures:
- Evaluate impacts closely.
- Ensure measures do not generate market distortions, remain temporary, are well-targeted toward the most vulnerable, and are kept in line with medium-term fiscal sustainability targets.

Staff emphasised preserving macroeconomic and debt sustainability by adequately anchoring expectations.
Fiscal target:
- Staff envisages that, to the extent the external situation improves, reaching the WAEMU convergence criterion of a 3 percent fiscal deficit target by 2024 remains feasible.
Recommendation to rebuild buffers over time.

Agreement between Ivorian authorities and IMF staff on the need to continue strengthening domestic revenue mobilization to finance critical spending and enhance macroeconomic resilience.
Observation: Despite recent efforts, tax revenues remain "relatively low by international standards."
Staff pointed to the need to mobilize additional domestic resources for:
- Priority spending to promote social convergence.
- Critical public infrastructure and services.
Fiscal performance contribution: gains from strengthened tax administration and ongoing digitalization efforts helped reduce the 2021 deficit by ½ percent of GDP versus budget.

IMF staff welcomed the 2021-25 National Development Plan (NDP) approved in December 2021; NDP aims to accelerate economic and social transformation by emphasizing:
- Enhancing the role of the private sector.
- Industrialization.
- Human capital.
- Productivity.
- Governance.
Policy recommendations to support NDP objectives:
- Continue improving the business environment and infrastructure.
- Safeguard property rights.
- Promote access to credit.
- Boost export diversification.
- Continue developing sustainable policies for adaptation to climate change and mitigation of associated risks.
Public services and social convergence:
- Continue enhancing provision of public services and deepening social convergence for more inclusive and sustainable growth.
- Noted achievements under the 2019-20 government social program PSGouv, including expanding access to electricity, clean water, and education nationwide.
- Need to continue efforts to enhance spending efficiency and access to more efficient public services.
- Ongoing efforts welcomed: enhance access to healthcare, broaden training of healthcare practitioners, and strengthen vocational training programs.

IMF team expressed gratitude to the authorities and other stakeholders for open and constructive discussions.

Source: Press Release No. 22/120, IMF Staff Completes 2022 Article IV Mission to Côte d’Ivoire, April 15, 2022.