IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Singapore
IMF News, July 16, 2025
Source details
- Canonical URL
- IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Singapore
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Published: July 16, 2025
Recent economic developments
- Growth increased to 4.4 percent in 2024, up from 1.8 percent in 2023, supported by strong private consumption and an upturn in the global technology cycle.
- GDP contracted by 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally-adjusted basis in 2025Q1, driven by a slowdown in externally-oriented sectors such as manufacturing and wholesale trade.
- Disinflation continued, with inflation falling below 2 percent at end-2024 and further in early 2025.
- Two-year ahead inflation expectations based on consensus forecasts remain anchored just under 2 percent.
- Labor market: advance estimate unemployment rate increased from 1.9 percent in December 2024 to 2.1 percent in March 2025.
- Current account balance recorded a surplus of 17.5 percent of GDP in 2024, decreasing from 17.7 percent of GDP in 2023, led by a decline in the goods surplus.
- Banking system: capital adequacy ratio at 18.9 percent in 2025Q1; banks remain profitable with strong liquidity coverage and net stable funding ratios for Domestic Systemically Important Banks.
- Investment funds (one-fourth of total assets of non-bank financial institutions) met investor redemption requests in an orderly manner during high market volatility in August 2024 and April 2025.
Executive Board assessment and risks
- Directors commended the resilience of Singapore’s economy and the authorities’ strong policy framework.
- Near-term outlook: growth projected to slow sharply amid ongoing trade tensions, while inflation is expected to stay muted.
- Downside risks to growth are tilted from potentially escalating trade tensions and tightening global financial conditions.
- Policy guidance:
- Monetary policy: further easing of monetary policy is warranted in the near term given disinflationary pressures and slowing growth; policy should remain vigilant and data dependent due to large uncertainty and two-sided inflation risks.
- Fiscal policy: the expansionary stance in the FY2025 budget appropriately supports activity; Singapore has substantial fiscal space to deploy temporary and targeted support if downside risks materialize.
- Medium-term fiscal strategy: accommodate rising medium term spending needs by reducing the fiscal surplus within the balanced budget rule, gradually phasing out untargeted transfers, and increasing infrastructure spending.
- External position: staff assesses Singapore’s external position remained substantially stronger in 2024 than warranted by medium term fundamentals and desirable policies; many Directors cautioned about uncertainty given Singapore’s unique characteristics and urged care in communication.
- Financial stability: current tight macroprudential policy should continue to prevent housing-related systemic risks; vigilance required on cross-border and foreign exchange exposures, a small number of highly leveraged corporates and households, exposures to commercial real estate, and non-bank financial institution–bank connections.
- Structural and social policies: welcomed authorities’ steps to promote a stronger and more inclusive economy, including a temporary financial support scheme for involuntarily unemployed workers, reskilling efforts, helping firms adopt AI technologies, and investments in climate resilient infrastructure.
- AML/CFT: continued efforts to strengthen the AML/CFT framework remain important.
Key projections and selected indicators (from Table 1)
- Real GDP growth:
- 2019: 1.3
- 2020: -3.8
- 2021: 9.8
- 2022: 4.1
- 2023: 1.8
- 2024: 4.4
- 2025: 1.7 (projection)
- 2026: (projection column present)
- Total domestic demand growth:
- 2019: 1.9
- 2020: -9.3
- 2021: 11.9
- 2022: 5.3
- 2023: -2.2
- 2024: 7.2
- 2025: 2.9
- 2026: 2.6
- Population (2024): 6.0 million
- Nominal GDP (2024): US$547.5 billion
- GDP per capita (2024): US$90,689
- Current account balance (US$ billions):
- 2019: 57.9
- 2020: 61.1
- 2021: 86.4
- 2022: 93.8
- 2023: 89.4
- 2024: 96.0
- 2025: 98.5 (projection)
- Current account balance (in percent of GDP, selected years):
- 2019: 15.4
- 2020: 19.8
- 2021: 18.4
- 2022: (shown)
- Gross official reserves (US$ billions):
- 2019: 279.5
- 2020: 362.3
- 2021: 417.9
- 2022: 289.5
- 2023: 351.0
- 2024: 371.4
- 2025: 420.4 (projection)
- 2026: 462.1 (projection)
- Gross national saving (percent of GDP):
- 2019: 39.9
- 2020: 40.3
- 2021: 43.8
- 2022: 40.6
- 2023: 38.9
- 2024: 39.7
- 2025: 39.2 (projection)
- 2026: 39.0 (projection)
- Gross domestic investment (percent of GDP):
- 2019: 24.5
- 2020: 22.8
- 2021: 24.0
- 2022: 22.2
- 2023: 21.2
- 2024: 22.1
- Central government finances (percent of GDP), selected items:
- Revenue (2024): 18.8
- Revenue (2025 projection): 19.6
- Revenue (2026 projection): 19.9
- Expenditure (2024): 16.2
- Expenditure (2025 projection): 17.1
- Net lending/borrowing and primary balance series presented in table.
- Public Debt to GDP (percent):
- 2019: 124.9
- 2020: 146.3
- 2021: 132.6
- 2022: 153.9
- 2023: 170.8
- 2024: 173.1
- 2025 (projection): 174.9
- 2026 (projection): 176.0
- Banking sector indicators:
- Capital adequacy ratio (2025Q1): 18.9 percent
- Liquidity coverage ratio and net stable funding ratio of Domestic Systemically Important Banks: comfortably meeting the minimum requirements (exact figures in source table context).
- Main goods exports (2024, percent of total non-oil goods exports):
- machinery & transport equip: 65.0 percent
- chemical products: 12.4 percent
- misc. manuf. articles: 10.3 percent
- Top three destinations for goods exports (2024, percent of gross goods exports):
- The Chinese mainland: 14.0 percent
- Hong Kong SAR: 11.0 percent
- Malaysia: 10.4 percent
Policy recommendations and authorities’ actions highlighted by Directors
- Monetary policy:
- Further easing warranted in the near term given disinflationary pressures and slowing growth.
- Maintain vigilance and data-dependence due to large uncertainty and two-sided inflation risks.
- Fiscal policy:
- Expansionary FY2025 budget appropriately supports activity.
- Retain capacity to deploy temporary and targeted fiscal support if downside risks materialize.
- Accommodate rising medium term spending needs by reducing the fiscal surplus within the balanced budget rule, phasing out untargeted transfers, and increasing infrastructure spending.
- Macroprudential and financial sector policies:
- Continue tight macroprudential policy to avoid housing-related systemic risks.
- Remain vigilant on cross-border and foreign exchange exposures, highly leveraged corporates and households, commercial real estate exposures, and non-bank financial institution–bank links.
- Step up stress testing and contingency planning.
- Continue efforts to strengthen the AML/CFT framework.
- Structural and social policies:
- Continue efforts to raise public investment and strengthen social safety nets.
- Continue temporary financial support for involuntarily unemployed workers, reskilling programs, and support for firms adopting AI technologies.
- Invest in climate resilient infrastructure.
IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Singapore (Press Release No. 25/250), July 16, 2025.