IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Belize

IMF News, September 15, 2025

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The Executive Board completed the Article IV consultation on September 10, 2025; authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report.
Directors welcomed the strong recovery following the Covid 19 pandemic and improvements in social outcomes and financial stability.
Directors stressed the need to reduce public debt, accelerate reforms to unlock potential growth, and build resilience to natural disasters.
Directors recommended continued tailored policy advice and technical assistance to support implementation in Belize.

Real GDP expanded by 30.6 percent between 2021 and 2023 and grew by 8.1 percent in 2024.
Inflation slowed to 1.0 percent in May 2025 from 4.0 percent in May 2024.
Primary balance improved to 1.7 percent of GDP in FY2024.
Public debt fell to 61.1 percent of GDP in 2024, after peaking at 103.3 percent of GDP in 2020; debt reduction was supported by a debt-for-marine protection swap and a negotiated discount on the debt with Petrocaribe.
Key drivers of 2024 growth: tourism, trade, and transport.

Real GDP growth:
- Expected to decelerate to 1.5 percent in 2025.
- Projected to converge to potential of about 2 percent over the medium term, absent expanded hotel and flight capacity.
Inflation:
- Expected to converge to 1.3 percent over the medium term as external pressures ease.
Current account:
- Expected to narrow to about 1.2 percent of GDP over the medium term from 1.5 percent in 2024.
International reserves:
- Projected to rise to about 4 months of imports (from 3.5 in 2024) but remain below the ARA metric by 2030.
Risks:
- Tilted to the downside; stem from higher global policy uncertainty, increased trade barriers, higher-for-longer global interest rates, and increased or sustained climate-related disasters.
- Upside from successful implementation of several large infrastructure projects.

Fiscal metrics (selected):
- Revenue and grants: 24.0 (FY2024), projected 24.7 (2025) and 25.0 (2026).
- Current non-interest expenditure: 16.2 (FY2024), projected 16.6 (2025) and 17.1 (2026).
- Capital expenditure and net lending: 6.1 (FY2024), projected 7.4 (2025) and 7.6 (2026).
- Primary balance: 0.6 (FY2024).
- Overall balance: -1.2 (FY2024), projected -1.5 (2025) and -1.8 (2026).
Public debt (percent of calendar year GDP):
- 2021: 82.5
- 2022: 66.8
- 2023: 67.2
- 2024: 61.1
- 2025: 60.4
- 2026: 59.3
- 2030: 58.0
Directors endorsed lowering public debt to below 50 percent of GDP and noted that the public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to fall more slowly, requiring additional fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing structural reforms to reduce debt to 50 percent of GDP by 2030.

Directors welcomed the decline in systemic risks and encouraged continued vigilance to maintain financial stability.
Recommendations:
- Expedite operationalization of the Deposit Insurance Act to enhance the financial safety net.
- Continue efforts to reduce the central bank’s holdings of government securities.
- Improve private sector access to financing to boost investment.
- Continue to address remaining gaps in the AML/CFT framework.

Fiscal policy:
- Enhanced revenue mobilization and reprioritization of current expenditure, including through pension reform.
- Create fiscal space for priority spending on targeted social programs, crime prevention, and infrastructure.
- Establish a medium term fiscal framework with clear targets and measures to underpin an effective Fiscal Responsibility Law.
Structural reforms to accelerate growth:
- Address structural barriers and capacity constraints in the tourism sector.
- Increase female labor force participation.
- Improve the business climate and competitiveness.
Resilience:
- Build buffers against future shocks and enhance resilience to natural disasters.
Monetary/external policy:
- Continue reserves accumulation to strengthen credibility of the currency peg.

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Belize — September 15, 2025