IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Poland
IMF News, February 3, 2026
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Bibliographic details
- Published: February 3, 2026
Key messages and context
- Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.
- Authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report.
- Date of press release: February 3, 2026.
- Near-term growth supported by private consumption (strong rebound in real wages), fiscal stimulus, significant EU disbursements, and recent monetary easing.
- Major near-term risks: fiscal vulnerabilities, declining price competitiveness, global trade developments, and regional security concerns.
Near-term outlook and projections
- Growth projections: 3.3 percent in 2025 and 3.5 percent in 2026.
- Over time: growth expected to moderate as EU-financed investment wanes and fiscal consolidation continues.
- Output gap: largely closed; expected to close in 2026.
- Current account: deficit of 1 percent of GDP in 2025.
- Staff assesses the external position in 2025 to be broadly in line with the levels implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.
Inflation and monetary policy
- Disinflation is on track; headline and core inflation returned to the target, driven by goods.
- Services inflation has remained elevated.
- Inflation expectations remain well-anchored in consumer and producer surveys.
- National Bank of Poland policy rate reductions: cumulative easing of 175 bps to 4 percent in 2025.
- Monetary policy guidance: staff advocates a cautious, wait-and-see approach; further easing advisable only if activity and core inflation fall toward undershooting the lower end of the target range.
- Recommendation on communication: emphasize decision-making process rather than specific rate predictions.
Fiscal situation and public debt
- Fiscal imbalances have widened considerably; widening since 2021 solely reflects a substantial increase in expenditures.
- 2025 fiscal metrics: fiscal deficit projected at 7 percent of GDP; public debt projected at 59 percent of GDP.
- Poland has the second largest fiscal deficit in Europe in 2025 even though the output gap is largely closed.
- Under current policies, public debt projected to reach 78 percent of GDP by 2031, exceeding the EU benchmark of 60 percent of GDP.
- Staff recommends a cumulative fiscal adjustment of 4 percent of GDP to stabilize public debt.
- Fiscal adjustment composition should reflect social preferences: either raise more revenue to sustain expanded services or return to a leaner public sector with more efficient and targeted spending.
- Governance recommendation: establish a well-resourced and independent fiscal council to strengthen fiscal governance.
Financial sector and credit conditions
- Banking sector: stable, well-capitalized, liquid, and profitable; non-performing loans are declining.
- Credit recovery supported by gradual monetary easing.
- Structural frictions constraining credit: legal risks and distortionary taxation.
- Policy recommendations:
- Eliminate the bank asset tax in a fiscally neutral manner (staff welcomes recent reduction and encourages going further).
- Redesign the Long-Term Funding Ratio to avoid unintended consequences that would raise the cost of credit and undermine credit creation.
- Address legal risks around mortgage contracts through proportionate penalties and standardized templates to reduce uncertainty and improve access to credit.
Structural reforms and medium-term priorities
- Productivity: labor productivity growth remains strong, but innovation lags.
- Demographics: mounting demographic pressures.
- Recommended measures:
- Enhance labor mobility, digital skills, and participation.
- Gradual increases in the retirement age.
- Better integration of migrant workers.
- Capital market reforms to improve household returns and expand firm financing.
- Ensure OKI and Innovate Poland initiatives avoid excessive home bias and promote broad participation.
- Deeper EU integration—especially in energy and capital markets—to support productivity and resilience.
- Continue decarbonization efforts to meet climate targets and preserve competitiveness.
Selected economic indicators (highlights from Table 1)
- GDP (change in percent): 2021: 6.9; 2022: 5.3; 2023: 0.2; 2024: 3.0; 2025: 3.3; 2026: 3.5; 2027: 2.7; 2028: 2.6; 2029: 2.5.
- Output gap (percent of potential GDP): 2021: 1.0; 2022: 2.3; 2023: -0.8; 2024: -0.7; 2025: -0.3; 2026: 0.1; 2027: 0.0.
- Headline CPI inflation (average): 2021: 5.1; 2022: 14.4; 2023: 11.4; 2024: 3.6; 2025: 3.8.
- Headline CPI inflation (end of period): 2021: 8.6; 2022: 16.6; 2023: 6.2; 2024: 4.7.
- CPI inflation excluding food and energy (percent): 2021: 4.1; 2022: 9.1; 2023: 10.1; 2024: 4.3; 2025: 3.1; 2026: 2.9.
- Unemployment rate (average, according to LFS): 2021: 3.4; 2022: 2.8.
- General government net lending/borrowing (percent of GDP): 2021: -1.7; 2022: -3.4; 2023: -5.2; 2024: -6.5; 2025: -7.0; 2026: -6.2; 2027: -5.8; 2028: -5.4; 2029: -5.0; 2030: -4.8.
- General government cyclically-adjusted balance (percent of GDP): 2021: -2.0; 2022: -4.6; 2023: -6.1; 2024: -6.9; 2025: -5.9.
- General government debt (percent of GDP): 2021: 53.0; 2022: 48.8; 2023: 49.5; 2024: 55.1; 2025: 59.3; 2026: 65.5; 2027: 68.7; 2028: 71.6; 2029: 73.9; 2030: 75.9; 2031: 77.7.
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2021: -1.3; 2022: -2.3; 2023: 1.5; 2024: 0.3; 2025: -1.0; 2026: -1.1; 2027: -1.4; 2028: -1.6.
- Total external debt (percent of GDP): 2021: 53.2; 2022: 53.9; 2023: 53.1; 2024: 50.3; 2025: 48.0; 2026: 49.0; 2027: 49.8; 2028: 50.2; 2029: 50.5; 2030: 50.7.
- Nominal GDP (billion zloty, memorandum): 2021: 2661.5; 2022: 3100.8; 2023: 3415.3; 2024: 3653.4; 2025: 3892.7; 2026: 4145.1; 2027: 4371.6; 2028: 4603.5; 2029: 4840.7; 2030: 5082.6; 2031: 5336.2.
Source: IMF Executive Board press release — IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Poland (February 3, 2026).