IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Türkiye
IMF News, February 13, 2026
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- Published: February 13, 2026
Overview
- The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Türkiye. (Press Release No. 26/047; February 13, 2026.)
- Since the 2024 Article IV, Türkiye’s disinflation program has shown successes: inflation fell from 49.4 percent (y/y) in September 2024 to 30.9 percent in December 2025 on the back of strong fiscal consolidation, prudent income policies, and a tight monetary policy stance.
- GDP growth forecast at 4.1 percent in 2025; lira demand has strengthened, bolstering international reserves; current account deficit remains adequately financed.
Macroeconomic outlook and key projections
- Short-term outlook:
- End-2026 inflation expected at 23 percent (y/y) as domestic demand remains strong.
- Growth expected at 4.2 percent for 2026, boosted by further policy rate cuts and rising confidence.
- Reserves expected to stay at around 80 percent of the IMF’s adequacy metric, supported by depositor confidence and strong gold prices.
- Longer-term projections (selected years from table):
- Real GDP growth rate: 2025: 4.1; 2026: 4.2; 2027: 4.0.
- GDP deflator growth rate: 2025: 34.0; 2026: 22.2; 2027: 19.5; 2028: 17.7; 2029: 14.7; 2030: 13.7; 2031: 14.1.
- Inflation (period-average): 2025: 34.9; 2026: 25.9; 2027: 20.9; 2028: 17.0; 2029: 15.0.
- Inflation (end-year): 2025: 30.9; 2026: 23.0; 2027: 19.0.
- Unemployment rate: 2025: 8.3; 2026: 9.1.
- Real sector contributions (selected): Private consumption contributions include 2021: 8.9; 2022: 9.5; 2023: 6.8; 2024: 2.9; 2025: 2.6; 2026: 3.5.
- Output gap (most recent entries): 1.5; -0.2.
- External sector (selected):
- Current account balance entries in table: -5.0; -1.4; -1.5.
- Gross external debt: 2024: 38.1; 2025: 34.5; 2026: 35.6; 2027: 36.2; 2028: 35.2; 2029: 34.4; 2030: 33.9; 2031: 33.3.
- Gross financing requirement: 20.5; 22.5; 17.3; 16.5; 18.2; 18.3; 17.9; 17.6.
- Monetary conditions (selected):
- Real average cost of CBRT funding to banks entries: -1.9; -59.4; -35.4; -9.5; ...
- Growth of broad money (M2): 53.0; 59.2; 70.1; 36.9; 40.0.
- Growth of credit to private sector: 37.0; 54.7; 54.0; 37.5.
Executive Board assessment — summary of Directors’ views
- Commendations and general view:
- Directors commended the authorities for the important successes of their disinflation policies, which reduced macroeconomic imbalances and improved confidence while preserving solid growth.
- Noting that inflation remains well above target and the economy is highly vulnerable to shocks, Directors stressed the need for a tighter macroeconomic policy mix combined with ambitious structural reforms to entrench disinflation, further strengthen external buffers, and support inclusive medium-term growth.
- Fiscal policy:
- Directors commended the authorities for their strong fiscal effort in 2025.
- Continued tightening, bringing the budget deficit temporarily below the 3 percent medium-term target, is needed to support disinflation.
- Emphasis on measures to broaden the tax base and improve compliance, and further efforts to streamline expenditures through phasing out energy subsidies.
- Need for carefully sequenced and well communicated measures to minimize second-round inflationary impacts while mitigating the impact on vulnerable households.
- As fiscal space expands, additional resources could be redirected to social priorities.
- Support for full alignment of wage policies with inflation targets, as well as stronger oversight of PPPs and SOEs.
- Monetary policy:
- Directors generally called for tighter monetary policy to achieve decisive disinflation, while emphasizing the need for policy rate adjustments to remain data dependent and mindful of their macro-financial implications.
- To bolster policy credibility and strengthen transmission, Directors emphasized a simplified monetary policy framework firmly centered on the policy rate, with enhanced central bank independence and communication.
- Recommendation to limit FX interventions to smoothing volatility, while gradually allowing greater exchange rate flexibility as inflation expectations become better anchored and reserve buffers recover.
- Financial sector:
- Directors noted the financial sector remains robust, supported by the authorities’ swift and effective response to market stress.
- Continued vigilance is warranted, particularly for still high FX liquidity risks.
- Support for ongoing efforts to strengthen the supervisory and resolution frameworks along with enhanced oversight, including of crypto assets.
- Structural reforms:
- Directors urged structural reforms to foster productivity, resilience, and medium-term growth.
- Top priorities include improvements in labor, education, and governance and legal frameworks, support for SMEs, and raising the share of renewables in the energy mix.
Risks and policy trade-offs
- Risks identified:
- External risks remain elevated due to persistent global trade uncertainty and regional conflicts.
- Adverse shocks (example provided): an increase of energy prices or a negative weather event could further extend the period of still-high inflation.
- The gradual approach to disinflation has weighed on the financial sector and slowed productivity growth.
- Policy trade-offs:
- Current policy mix balances disinflation with steady growth, but carries costs and risks; Directors recommend tighter macroeconomic policy mix plus structural reforms to entrench gains and reduce vulnerability.
Selected economic indicators (high-level snapshots)
- Population (2024): 85.7 million
- Per capita GDP (2024): US$15,882
- Quota: SDR 4,658.6 million
- Real GDP growth rate (selected): 2021: 11.8; 2022: 5.4; 2023: 5.0; 2024: 3.3; 2025: 4.1; 2026: 4.2; 2027: 4.0.
- Inflation (end-year) (selected): 2021: 36.1; 2022: 64.3; 2023: 64.8; 2024: 44.4; 2025: 30.9; 2026: 23.0; 2027: 19.0.
- General government gross debt (EU definition) (selected): 2021: 38.9; 2022: 29.4; 2023: 28.2; 2024: 23.6; 2025: 23.1; 2026: 24.7; 2027: 25.7.
- Current account balance (selected): -5.0; -1.4; -1.5.
- Gross external debt (selected): 51.7; 48.7; 42.7; 38.1; 34.5; 35.6; 36.2; 35.2; 34.4; 33.9; 33.3.
Press Release No. 26/047 — February 13, 2026. International Monetary Fund.