IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Moldova
IMF News, February 27, 2026
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- Published: February 27, 2026
Macroeconomic outlook and recovery
- Moldova’s recovery is underway with growth projected at 2.7 percent in 2025 and 2.3 percent in 2026, supported by a good harvest, strong domestic demand, and substantial EU financing.
- Household consumption and investment are benefiting from robust wage and credit growth; industrial production expanded strongly, partly driven by food processing.
- Weak exports are weighing on growth and widening the current account.
- Inflation is expected to return to the National Bank of Moldova’s target range of 5 +/- 1.5 percent in 2026; heightened uncertainty calls for a cautious, state‑contingent monetary strategy, with future rate changes conditional on the path of inflation and growth.
- The medium-term outlook: moderate growth as higher investment and productivity-enhancing reforms boost potential output while labor remains a drag.
- Key downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation include the war in Ukraine, other geopolitical developments, and delays or misallocation of EU Growth Plan implementation and related funding.
Fiscal policy and public finances
- The fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 4.8 percent of GDP in 2026 with a substantial scale-up of capital spending and some increase in current spending; adoption of planned tax reforms should help mitigate pressures.
- Executive Directors agreed that a temporarily higher fiscal deficit is appropriate to support the transition to investment‑led growth.
- Emphasis on enhancing capital spending execution, public financial management, and mobilizing revenue as concessional financing declines.
- Support for planned public wage reform, with costs to be covered by additional domestic revenues.
- Support for simplifying taxes and removing exemptions, particularly on VAT.
Monetary policy, reserves, and financial sector
- Directors recognized the National Bank of Moldova’s timely response to rising inflation after the energy shock in early 2025.
- Monetary policy should remain cautious and state‑contingent; reserve requirements on bank deposits, currently high, were recommended to be reduced after inflation risks subside.
- Encouragement to further strengthen central bank independence and governance to safeguard credibility.
- Maintaining exchange rate flexibility while preserving sufficient foreign exchange buffers is important to absorb shocks.
- Banking sector is sound, but strong credit growth and surging house prices call for close monitoring; strengthening borrower‑based measures would help contain risks.
- Financial sector reforms should address remaining gaps in supervision, crisis management, and AML/CFT frameworks, in line with FSAP recommendations.
Structural reforms, EU accession, and energy preparedness
- EU accession and the EU Growth Plan provide an important opportunity to tackle long‑standing challenges (high emigration, low competitiveness, limited institutional capacity), achieve higher growth, and improve living standards.
- Ambitious structural reforms are needed to address structural problems, boost productivity, and unlock growth: governance and anti‑corruption reforms, labor market participation measures, addressing skills mismatches, improving infrastructure and the investment environment.
- Efforts to enhance energy preparedness and security should continue given vulnerability to electricity supply shocks and price volatility.
- Timely and effective implementation of the EU Growth Plan and actions linked to EU accession are central to supporting reforms.
- Directors highlighted that continued IMF engagement would reinvigorate reform momentum and support EU accession; next Article IV consultation expected on the standard 12‑month cycle.
Executive Board assessment and recommendations (summarized)
- Support for temporarily higher fiscal deficit to fund investment, coupled with revenue mobilization and improved public financial management.
- Monetary policy to remain cautious and state‑contingent; reduce reserve requirements when inflation risks ease.
- Strengthen central bank independence and governance.
- Continue macroprudential measures and enhance supervision, crisis management, and AML/CFT frameworks.
- Advance governance, anti‑corruption, energy security, labor market, skills, infrastructure, and investment climate reforms.
- Ensure effective and timely implementation of EU Growth Plan funding and reforms.
Key indicators (selected figures preserved exactly as reported)
- Real growth rate: -4.6; 1.2; 0.1; 2.7; 2.3; 3.5; 3.7; 3.6
- Domestic Demand (percent change): -2.5; -3.6; 2.9; 6.3; 4.4; 4.6; 4.2; 4.1
- Consumption (percent change): -2.4; -1.3; 1.6; 3.2; 3.4; 3.3
- Gross fixed capital formation (percent change): -10.5; 0.0; 8.0; 20.2; 10.2; 9.1; 9.2; 7.5
- Net Exports of goods and services (percent change / levels): -5.2; 18.9; -21.0; -20.6; -9.8; -8.3; -8.6; -6.6; -6.7; -7.9
- Exports of goods and services (percent change): 29.7; 4.8; -5.4; 7.9; 7.4; 8.8; 8.5; 8.6
- Imports of goods and services (percent change): 18.2; -5.1; 5.2; 10.6; 7.8; 8.2; 7.7; 8.3
- Nominal GDP (billions of Moldovan lei): 274.5; 303.6; 323.8; 354.5; 379.9; 413.6; 451.0; 491.6; 535.5; 583.0
- Output Gap (percent of potential GDP): -0.2; -0.8; -2.1; -1.1; -1.0; -0.4
- Consumer price index (average): 28.7; 13.4; 4.7; 5.0
- Consumer price index (end of period): 30.2; 7.0; 6.8; 4.9
- Average monthly wage (Moldovan lei): 10,531; 12,355; 14,095; 15,575; 16,725; 18,150; 19,725; 21,425; 23,275
- Unemployment rate (annual average, percent): 3.1; 4.0; 3.8
- Foreign saving (percent of GDP): 17.2; 11.1; 16.6; 19.3; 19.6; 19.2; 18.6; 17.5; 16.5; 16.2
- National saving (percent of GDP): 10.1; 9.0; 5.3; 5.9; 7.1; 11.9; 12.6; 8.9; 5.7; 6.4
- Gross investment (percent of GDP): 27.3; 20.1; 21.1; 24.5; 25.4; 26.4; 27.5; 28.1; 28.5; 28.8
- Current expenditure (percent of GDP): 32.8; 34.9; 36.2; 36.8; 36.6; 35.6; 35.1; 34.8; 34.7
- Capital expenditure (percent of GDP): 3.9; 4.3
- Primary balance (percent of GDP): -2.3; -4.4; -2.9; -2.7; -3.2; -3.1; -2.0; -1.7
- Overall balance (percent of GDP): -3.9; -4.8; -4.2; -3.7; -3.5
- Stock of public and publicly guaranteed debt (percent of GDP): 36.3; 38.8; 36.5; 39.7; 41.2; 42.1; 42.7; 42.8; 42.9
- Broad money (M3, percent change): 18.4; 13.7; 12.1
- Reserve money (percent change): 30.3; 9.9; 0.3
- Credit to the economy (percent change): 2.8; 25.1; 26.6; 19.5
- Credit to the economy, percent of GDP: 25.5; 29.5; 32.9
- Current account balance (Millions of U.S. dollars): -2,500; -1,849; -3,013; -3,933; -4,260; -4,554; -4,811; -4,915; -5,067; -5,410
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): -17.2; -11.1; -16.6; -19.3; -19.6; -19.2; -18.6; -17.5; -16.5; -16.2
- Personal transfers and compensation of employees (net, Millions of U.S. dollars): 1,519; 1,562; 1,405; 1,345; 1,426; 1,512; 1,604; 1,693; 1,777; 1,866
- Gross official reserves (Millions of U.S. dollars): 4,474; 5,453; 5,484; 6,006; 6,222; 6,624; 6,924; 6,945; 6,895; 6,828
- Gross official reserves (months of imports): 5.5; 5.4; 5.1
- Exchange rate (Moldovan lei per USD, period average): 17.4
- Exchange rate (Moldovan lei per USD, end of period): 18.5; 16.8
- Real effective exchange rate (average, percent change): 7.2; 1.4
- External debt (percent of GDP): 66.4; 59.6; 57.5; 58.4; 62.2; 66.1; 68.9; 70.5; 69.1; 67.2
- Debt service (percent of exports of goods and services): 10.3; 12.3; 12.8; 12.2; 12.0; 10.5; 9.8
IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Moldova, Press Release No. 26/067 (February 27, 2026).
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