IMF Executive Board Completes the Ninth and Tenth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Guinea-Bissau

IMF News, March 20, 2026

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Canonical URL: IMF Executive Board Completes the Ninth and Tenth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Guinea-Bissau

The Executive Board completed the ninth and tenth reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for Guinea-Bissau.
The completion enables an immediate disbursement of SDR 2.37 million (about US$3.2 million).
Total disbursements under the arrangement now amount to SDR 37.41 million (about US$50.8 million).
The Executive Board approved the authorities’ request to extend the program through December 29, 2026, with a rephasing of access to support implementation of the 2026 budget and to help anchor economic policies.

Program performance since the Eighth Review (June 2025) was weaker than expected:
- Three out of ten end-June 2025 Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPCs) were missed.
- Five out of ten end‑December 2025 QPCs were missed.
- Of 15 Structural Benchmarks set for June–December 2025, five were met and ten were implemented with delays.
- All three Continuous Structural Benchmarks were missed.
In completing the reviews, the Executive Board:
- Granted waivers for the nonobservance of Quantitative Performance Criteria.
- Approved the authorities’ requests for modifications of Performance Criteria and Indicative Targets.
- Completed the financing assurances review.

Economic growth in 2025 is estimated at 5.5 percent, driven by strong cashew production and favorable terms‑of‑trade developments.
Average inflation eased to 0.9 percent in 2025.
The current account deficit is estimated to have narrowed to 6.2 percent of GDP in 2025.
The fiscal deficit was larger than expected in 2025 due to weaker revenue performance, higher interest payments, and lower‑than‑anticipated budget support.
Public debt declined to an estimated 75.3 percent of GDP in 2025; sustaining a downward trajectory will require sustained fiscal consolidation and prudent borrowing policies.

The 2026 budget accelerates fiscal consolidation with the objective of:
- Maintaining a surplus on the primary balance.
- Reducing the overall deficit to 4.0 percent of GDP.
Fiscal measures include:
- Close control of the wage bill.
- Revenue-side measures: updated customs valuations, a more rigorous pursuit of arrears, and a stronger focus on large taxpayers.
Emphasis on avoiding future fiscal slippages and any recurrence of underreported expenditure and arrears.

Financial sector actions:
- Divestment from the undercapitalized bank has been completed.
- The bank’s recapitalization is underway: the first capital injection has been completed and an additional capital injection is expected shortly.
- Authorities are urged to complete the restructuring process timely, including the additional capital injection necessary to bring the capital adequacy ratio in line with regulatory requirements.
Energy sector reforms:
- Recent reforms in the public electricity generator have stemmed losses, ensured cost recovery, and increased consumer and industrial connectivity.
- Authorities are exploring options to boost capacity through the regional market or additional private suppliers.
- Energy sector reforms are deemed essential to both reduce fiscal risks and boost growth potential.

Progress is noted in governance reforms with increased transparency in public tender information and beneficial ownership data.
Further efforts are needed to boost accountability, transparency, and to improve the business climate.
The IMF highlights significant downside risks to the outlook and stresses that strong program ownership and engagement with the Fund remain paramount.

Output
- Real GDP Growth (%): 2025 Prel. 5.5; SR 9th/10th Proj. 5.0; New Proj. 4.9
Prices
- CPI inflation (annual average, %): 2025 Prel. 0.9; 2026 2.0; 2027 2.5; additional entry 2.1
Central government finances
- Revenue (% GDP): 2025 13.2; 2026 13.7; 2027 14.7
- Expenditure (% GDP): 2025 19.9; 2026 17.7; 2027 18.2
- Overall balance (% GDP): 2025 -6.7; 2026 -4.0; 2027 -3.5
- Public debt (% GDP): 2025 75.3; 2026 73.6; 2027 71.8
Money and credit
- Broad money (% change): 2025 4.3; 2026 6.4; 2027 4.6; additional entries 7.9; 6.5
- Credit to the economy (% change): 2025 15.5; 2026 16.6; 2027 16.1; additional entries 16.3; 15.2
Balance of payments
- Current account (% GDP): 2025 -6.2; 2026 -5.8; 2027 -6.3; additional entries -4.7; -5.1
- Trade balance (% GDP): 2025 -13.4; 2026 -12.4; 2027 -13.0; additional entries -11.7; -12.1
- Petroleum import (% GDP): 2025 -3.6; 2026 -3.2; 2027 -3.8; additional entries -3.0; -3.4
- Final three entries: 1.9; -0.1; -0.3; 0.5; 0.1

IMF Communications Department, March 20, 2026 — Press Release No. 26/084