IMF Executive Board Completes the Third Review of the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Guinea-Bissau and Approves US$8.2 Million Disbursement
IMF News, November 30, 2023
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- Published: November 30, 2023
Executive Board decision and financing actions
- The Executive Board decision allows for an immediate disbursement of about US$8.23 million (SDR6.16 million) to help meet the country’s financing needs.
- The Executive Board approved an augmentation of access under the Extended Credit Facility arrangement from about US$37.96 (SDR28.4 million) to US$53.14 million (SDR39.76 million or 140 percent of quota).
- With the third review disbursement, the total amount disbursed under the arrangement is SDR13.27 million (about US$ 17.7 million).
- The three-year arrangement was approved on January 30, 2023.
Performance under the ECF-supported program and waivers
- Performance under the ECF supported program was weaker than expected for the third review, against a challenging external and domestic context.
- The Executive Board granted a waiver for nonobservance of performance criteria on:
- the floor on domestic tax revenue,
- the ceiling on wages,
- the floor on the domestic primary fiscal balance,
- and the nonobservance of the continuous performance criterion on ceiling on new external arrears.
- The Executive Board approved the request to modify the end-December 2023 performance criterion on the domestic primary balance.
- The financing assurances review was completed.
Economic context and projections (2023)
- Growth:
- The economy continues to recover in 2023 and growth is projected at 4.2 percent, the same level as in 2022.
- Inflation:
- Inflation is expected to reach 8 percent in 2023, because of soaring food prices.
- Fiscal balance:
- The overall fiscal deficit is projected at 5.6 percent of GDP in 2023, partly reflecting the spending overruns during the legislative elections period.
- Public debt:
- Public debt is projected to decline and reach 76.5 percent of GDP in 2023 because of a lower fiscal deficit, an appreciation of the domestic currency and higher nominal GDP.
- Drivers of financing need:
- Significant deterioration of Guinea-Bissau terms of trade and a tightening of regional financing conditions.
- Country actions:
- The authorities remain committed to strong policies and are taking measures to ensure that end-December 2023 targets are met.
Policy priorities, reforms, and corrective measures
- Fiscal consolidation and revenue:
- Improving domestic revenue mobilization and containing wage and non-wage current expenditures will be key to support fiscal consolidation and put public debt on a firm downward trajectory.
- The authorities have adopted corrective actions and a draft 2024 budget in line with program parameters.
- They are strictly rationalizing non-priority expenditure, mobilizing additional revenue, and tightly controlling the wage bill.
- Structural reforms and risk mitigation:
- The new government is leading structural reforms to mitigate fiscal risks in the energy and financial sectors, as well as in governance and the rule of law.
- Implementation of policies to foster agricultural and economic diversification is important.
- Governance, transparency, and oversight:
- Progress continues in strengthening external audits, public procurement, and AML/CFT effectiveness.
- The Audit Court has published the audit report of the High Commissioner for COVID-19.
- The authorities continue to publish the beneficial ownership information of all public contracts.
- A series of legislative reforms are underway to modernize the asset declaration regime and improve the anti-corruption and AML/CFT framework.
- External support:
- The augmentation of access under the ECF, together with increased support from development partners, will help cover the balance of payments needs.
Statement by Mr. Li, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair
- Mr. Li noted:
- “Guinea-Bissau’s successful completion of the last legislative election and the timely formation of the new government is commendable.”
- The country is facing acute economic shocks from disappointing cashew exports, soaring food inflation, and a tightening of regional financing conditions.
- “Sustained implementation of the reform agenda under the ECF arrangement will be crucial, and the authorities’ firm commitment to the program objectives is welcome.”
- He emphasized that continued efforts in rationalizing non-priority expenditure, mobilizing additional revenue, tightly controlling the wage bill, and sustained fiscal consolidation are needed to ensure debt sustainability.
- He highlighted the importance of reforms in energy and financial sectors, governance and the rule of law, and policies to foster agricultural and economic diversification.
Press Release No. 23/412, November 29, 2023