IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Antigua and Barbuda

IMF News, May 7, 2026

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Real GDP grew by an estimated 3 percent in 2025, supported by a pick-up in construction despite slowing tourism activity.
Employment has gradually recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
Inflation moderated from over 6 percent (year-average) in 2024 to 1.4 percent in 2025.
Public debt as a share of GDP declined from 101 percent of GDP in 2020 to an estimated 68 percent in 2025.
Arrears to Paris Club creditors and domestic suppliers are significant and gross financing needs are elevated.
The fiscal position strengthened in 2024–25, reflecting improved tax collection and one-off factors.
The 2025 primary balance is estimated at nearly 5 percent of GDP, underpinned by:
- higher tax revenues,
- stronger inflows under the Citizenship-by-Investment Program (CIP),
- restraint in current spending,
- a modest increase in capital spending.
Following a sharp narrowing in 2024, the current account deficit in 2025 returned to trend and is estimated around 11½ percent of GDP.
The current account deficit was predominantly financed by foreign direct investment (FDI), and partly by CIP-related inflows.
The overall financial system remains stable and liquid.

Directors welcomed continued economic expansion, construction activity, resilient tourism, and moderation of inflation.
Directors warned of downside risks from:
- the war in the Middle East,
- commodity price volatility,
- a slowdown in major trading partners,
- domestic capacity constraints weighing on growth.
Upside potential could arise from:
- stronger tourism demand,
- improved connectivity,
- productivity-enhancing reforms.
Directors emphasized the importance of tailored and well-sequenced Fund capacity development given the country’s capacity constraints.

Directors noted the decline in public debt as a share of GDP but stressed that persistent arrears and elevated gross financing needs constrain access to longer‑term financing and undermine debt sustainability.
Recommended actions to restore debt sustainability and fiscal buffers:
- develop and implement a credible and comprehensive strategy for addressing all arrears,
- broaden financing options,
- make space for resilience-building investments,
- continue strengthening cash and debt management to prevent future arrears.
Revenue and expenditure measures encouraged:
- further revenue mobilization to rebuild fiscal buffers and meet fiscal objectives,
- broaden the tax base,
- curtail exemptions,
- restrain current expenditures,
- strengthen the targeting of social assistance.
Institutional and transparency measures:
- continue efforts to strengthen fiscal institutions,
- enhance fiscal oversight, transparency, and reporting of fiscal and public enterprise data.

Directors recognized regional and national efforts to strengthen financial sector oversight, resilience, and intermediation.
For credit unions, Directors encouraged:
- a shift to risk‑based supervision,
- efforts to bolster provisioning and capital positions.
Continued priorities:
- strengthen financial deepening,
- enhance AML/CFT and Citizenship by Investment (CIP) frameworks.
Connectivity and competitiveness recommendations:
- enhance connectivity to support trade, tourism, and competitiveness,
- streamline port and customs procedures,
- carefully prioritize and sequence infrastructure projects,
- address skills shortages.
Data improvements:
- underscored the need for improved data to support evidence-based policymaking.

Real GDP (percent change): 2024: 2.5; 2025: 3.0; 2026: 2.6; 2027: 2.4
Nominal GDP (percent change): 2024: 5.3; 2025: 5.1; 2026: 4.9; 2027: 4.5
Consumer prices (period average): 2024: 6.2; 2025: 1.4; 2026: 2.1
Primary balance (central government, percent of GDP): 2024: 4.0; 2025: 1.0
Overall balance (central government, percent of GDP): 2024: -0.6; 2025: -1.1; 2026: -1.0; 2027: -0.9
Total revenue and grants (percent of GDP): 2024: 21.9; 2025: 22.4; 2026: 21.6; 2027: 21.0
Of which: Tax revenue (percent of GDP): 2024: 16.8; 2025: 17.8; 2026: 17.3
Total expenditure (percent of GDP): 2024: 19.3; 2025: 22.3; 2026: 22.2; 2027: 21.8

Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2024: -7.5; 2025: -11.6; 2026: -11.8; 2027: -11.3
Trade balance (percent of GDP): 2024: -29.7; 2025: -31.8; 2026: -32.3
Nonfactor service balance (percent of GDP): 2024: 31.3; 2025: 27.9; 2026: 27.7
Of which: Gross tourism receipts (percent of GDP): 2024: 47.9; 2025: 45.0; 2026: 44.7

External public sector debt (percent of GDP): 2024: 31.7; 2025: 34.2; 2026: 36.1
Public debt stock (percent of GDP): 2020: 101 (not in table but referenced in text); table: 2024: 69.3; 2025: 68.3; 2026: 66.5; 2027: 65.2

Net imputed international reserves (US$ million): 2021: 324; 2022: 346; 2023: 319; 2024: 318; 2025: 352; 2026: 378
(Months of prospective imports): 2021: 2.7; 2022: 2.9

A steady economic expansion is projected to continue, but risks are tilted to the downside amid heightened global uncertainty.
Projected Real GDP growth rates (selected):
- 2025: 3.0
- 2026: 2.6
- 2027: 2.4
Projected current account balances (percent of GDP):
- 2025: -11.6
- 2026: -11.8
- 2027: -11.3

IMF Communications Department press release, May 7, 2026.