IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Kazakhstan

IMF News, June 16, 2026

Source details

Mission led by Amina Lahreche visited Kazakhstan during June 3-12, 2026.
Statement issued June 15, 2026. Views expressed are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board.
Key headline: Economic growth remains robust, supported by high global oil prices, dynamic domestic demand, and investment inflows; banks are well capitalized and liquid; still-elevated inflation despite a recent decline and risks of disruption to oil exports weigh on the outlook.

Real GDP expanded by 3.7 percent in the first five months of 2026, down from 6.5 percent at end-2025.
IMF team projects growth at about 4.6 percent in 2026.
Drivers:
- Robust performance in services, transport, construction, and manufacturing offset lower oil production in early 2026.
- Elevated oil prices counterbalance stabilization of oil output, slowdown of household credit growth, and ongoing fiscal consolidation.

Inflation timeline and levels:
- 12.9 percent in September 2025.
- 10.4 percent in May 2026.
- Inflation is projected to remain around 10 percent this year.
Policy developments and recommendations:
- National Bank of Kazakhstan reduced the policy rate by 100 basis points in June 2026 after tightening liquidity.
- Monetary stance should remain tight until inflation is firmly on track toward the 5 percent target.
- Planned measures to reduce excess liquidity include higher reserve requirements and increased issuance of NBK notes.
- Quasi-fiscal spending discipline should avoid procyclicality; NBK should stand ready to tighten monetary policy if inflation does not continue on a firmly downward trajectory.
Risks to inflation:
- External price pressures.
- Acceleration of quasi-fiscal activities and capital spending in the second half of the year.
- Continued utility price adjustments.
- Weakly anchored expectations.

Fiscal outlook:
- Fiscal and external positions are projected to strengthen on the back of elevated oil prices and tax reforms.
- Non-oil fiscal deficit is projected to decline further in 2026 with implementation of the new tax codes and conservative spending.
- Recommended measures: broaden the tax base, strengthen revenue administration through digitalization, reduce exemptions.
- Emphasis on fiscal discipline and enhanced spending efficiency to support the Government’s Joint Action Program to lower inflation.
External sector:
- Current account expected to shift from a deficit of 4.1 percent of GDP in 2025 to a marginal surplus in 2026.
- International reserves cover about 10 months of imports.

Banking sector status:
- Banks are well capitalized, liquid and profitable overall.
- Non-performing loans are low and well provisioned.
Macroprudential actions and reforms:
- Tighter prudential measures, including activation of sectoral countercyclical capital buffer with respect to credit to individuals, have helped moderate consumer lending.
- New Banking Law updated the resolution framework for banks.
- Continued monitoring of vulnerabilities and ongoing tight macroprudential stance are important to contain financial stability risks.

Downside risks:
- Potential disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline could pose downside risks to growth.
- Global uncertainty and tighter financial conditions could weigh on investment inflows.
- Stronger domestic demand or higher import prices could reignite inflation and further de-anchor expectations.
Upside scenarios:
- Sustained high oil prices, if prudently managed, together with effective implementation of the Joint Action Program and well-sequenced utility tariff reforms, could strengthen fiscal and external buffers and help anchor inflation.

Macro policy mix:
- Maintain fiscal discipline and quasi-fiscal spending discipline to avoid procyclicality.
- Keep monetary policy focused on bringing inflation to the 5 percent target through a tight stance until inflation is firmly on track.
Fiscal reforms and efficiency:
- Broaden the tax base, strengthen revenue administration through digitalization, and reduce exemptions to support fiscal consolidation.
- Enhance public spending efficiency, including through the use of Digital Tenge, which enables real-time tracking and targeted use of budgetary and National Fund resources.
Structural reforms to raise potential growth:
- Reduce the state footprint.
- Boost private investment.
- Deepen capital markets.
- Upgrade human, physical, and digital infrastructure.

IMF staff statement, June 15, 2026.