IMF Staff Concludes Staff Visit to Syria

IMF News, August 4, 2026

Source details

IMF staff team visited Damascus from July 19–23, 2026, led by Ron van Rooden.
Purpose: assess Syria’s economic conditions, discuss reform progress and policy priorities, and agree on further technical assistance as part of the IMF’s intensified engagement with Syria.
Concluding note: "This mission will not result in a Board discussion." End-of-Mission press release conveys preliminary findings of IMF staff and does not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board.

Syria’s recovery is strengthening, with "double-digit growth expected in 2026 and continued strong growth in 2027."
Drivers of growth cited:
- improving agriculture,
- hydrocarbon production,
- electricity provision,
- trade and services,
- refugee returns,
- an increasing number of visitors,
- government spending.
Historical/contextual points:
- In 2025 the economy "started to recover" with improved consumer and investor sentiment following the regime change and "the return of about 1.5 million refugees."
- Recovery in 2025 helped offset adverse effects of a major drought that affected agriculture.
Caveats:
- Growth is uneven across regions.
- Poverty "remains widespread" despite some reductions.

Inflation trajectory:
- "Inflation, which had slowed markedly in 2025 to low double digits, has picked up considerably so far in 2026."
- Inflation "is expected to slow in 2027, provided import price pressures ease and sound fiscal and monetary policies are pursued."
Factors contributing to higher inflation in 2026:
- higher import prices, notably for fuel and food, due to the regional conflict;
- strong domestic demand, including public sector wage increases (noted as "albeit from very low levels");
- higher utility prices to achieve cost recovery and reduce quasi-fiscal costs;
- rising housing cost.

Fiscal developments:
- "The central government budget ended 2025 with a small surplus" achieved by containing spending and focusing on essential needs.
- Revenues projected to increase substantially in 2026, with "a significant increase in tax and customs revenues already realized in the first half of the year."
- Additional 2026 revenue sources: rising hydro-carbon revenues and some one-off revenues, including from telecom license and fuel transit fees.
- Expected financing and revenues will "allow the execution of most budgeted expenditures," though resource constraints will likely require capital spending to be contained.
Policy guidance for 2027:
- Maintain sound fiscal policies.
- Base the 2027 central government budget on conservative revenue and financing assumptions.
- Contain current spending.
Public financial management priorities:
- Continue strengthening public financial management, building on progress in budget preparation and execution.
- Contain and enhance oversight and controls over off-budget operations, quasi-fiscal activities, and contingent liabilities, including from government guarantees.
- Improve revenue mobilization through tax reform and strengthening tax and customs administration; "tax exemptions should be limited."
- Improve spending prioritization to create fiscal space for development spending and to enhance the social safety net.

"Given Syria’s large humanitarian and development needs, strong and timely international financial support is still needed."
Sustainable reintegration of returning refugees and internally displaced people requires support beyond humanitarian assistance, focusing on:
- creating productive employment opportunities,
- enhancing public service delivery,
- restoring housing and infrastructure.
Mobilizing financing for development will depend on progress toward addressing Syria’s legacy debt in a comprehensive manner and developing a domestic securities market.

Central Bank and monetary framework:
- "The Central Bank of Syria has successfully managed the introduction of the new currency."
- Monetary policy remains "severely constrained by a highly dysfunctional banking system and a lack of monetary policy instruments."
- Immediate priorities include:
- development and adoption of new central bank and banking laws—providing the central bank with a mandate to ensure price stability and strong bank supervision and resolution powers;
- conducting a thorough assessment of banks’ financial health in line with international best practice.
Banking sector rehabilitation:
- Urgent need to accelerate efforts to rehabilitate the banking system so it can fulfill roles in financial intermediation and facilitating payments domestically and internationally, and enable effective monetary policy transmission.
AML/CFT and international integration:
- Enhance the AML/CFT framework, including to achieve Syria’s removal from FATF’s grey list, to promote re-integration into the international financial system and facilitate investment and financial flows.

Progress and gaps:
- Progress has been made in preparing a debt sustainability analysis, notably with "the compilation of comprehensive debt data."
- Gaps in availability and quality of essential economic data remain, hampering more detailed assessment of economic developments.
Technical assistance priorities for statistics:
- Improve statistics covering national accounts, price, balance of payments, government finance, and monetary and financial statistics.
- Progress in data availability and quality will facilitate the resumption of Article IV consultations with Syria, as requested by the authorities.

The staff team met with Minister of Finance Mohamad Yisr Barnieh, Governor of the Central Bank of Syria Safwat Raslan, and other senior officials.
The staff team expressed gratitude for the authorities' transparent and constructive discussions and their hospitality during the mission.

IMF Press Release No. 26/272, August 4, 2026.