IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Samoa
IMF News, September 16, 2026
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- Published: September 16, 2026
Main findings and recent developments
- Strong policy buffers and prudent macroeconomic management have preserved stability despite a challenging external environment.
- Key resilience factors: Low public debt, ample international reserves, and sound policies.
- Headwinds: higher global energy prices, climate-related shocks, infrastructure gaps, a narrow production base, and outward migration.
- Post-pandemic trajectory: Following a strong post-pandemic recovery, growth has slowed sharply due to weaker domestic demand, subdued agricultural and commercial activity, and higher fuel and shipping costs.
- Inflation dynamics: Inflation remained contained for much of the year, although rising global fuel prices have recently increased price pressures.
- External position: Strong tourism and remittance inflows have continued to support the external position.
- Fiscal stance: Fiscal policy remained expansionary despite fiscal surpluses.
- Vulnerabilities: High exposure to natural disasters, limited economic diversification, and persistent structural constraints.
Outlook and risks
- Near-term outlook: Growth is expected to recover gradually, supported by an expansionary fiscal stance, although the near-term outlook remains challenging.
- Price and external pressures: Elevated oil prices and global uncertainty are expected to weigh on private consumption and investment; inflation is projected to rise as higher fuel and food costs pass through to domestic prices; the external position is expected to weaken as import costs increase, although reserves should remain ample.
- Medium-term constraints: Growth projected to remain moderate, constrained by weak productivity, infrastructure gaps, a narrow production base, and labor shortages from continued outward migration.
- Downside risks: escalating geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, rising trade protectionism, weaker tourism demand, more frequent climate-related shocks, persistent inflation, and continued migration.
Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations
- General assessment:
- Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal and commended the authorities’ prudent macroeconomic policies.
- Directors noted a challenging near‑term outlook and downside risks—commodity price volatility, climate shocks, capacity constraints, and outward migration.
- Emphasis on preserving macroeconomic stability and advancing structural reforms to foster diversified and resilient growth.
- Fiscal policy:
- Support for using available fiscal space to cushion the effects of the energy price shock, while safeguarding medium‑term fiscal sustainability.
- Assistance should be transparent, temporary and targeted to vulnerable households and productive investment.
- Spending should be carefully paced in line with implementation capacity.
- Strengthen project appraisal, execution, and oversight to ensure higher spending translates into durable economic benefits.
- Continue improvements in the fiscal framework, public financial management, and investment planning and execution to strengthen public spending efficiency and budget credibility.
- Monetary policy and reserves:
- Encourage the Central Bank of Samoa to maintain an appropriately tight monetary stance and to stand ready to respond to inflationary pressures.
- Need to step up absorption of excess liquidity and strengthen policy transmission.
- Welcome ongoing efforts to strengthen liquidity management and modernize the monetary policy operational framework.
- Safeguarding the independence of the Central Bank of Samoa is critical; encourage amendments to the Central Bank of Samoa Act to reinforce independence, governance, and accountability.
- Financial sector and integrity:
- Recommended continued strengthening of financial sector oversight, including close monitoring of rapid lending by public financial institutions and emerging asset‑quality risks.
- Highlighted the importance of enhancing financial integrity and safeguarding correspondent banking relationships.
- Welcomed Samoa’s removal from the EU’s list of non‑cooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes and encouraged further strengthening AML/CFT frameworks.
- Structural reforms:
- Sustained progress in addressing structural constraints essential to lift medium‑term growth.
- Encourage reforms to: improve the business environment and access to finance, strengthen human capital, ease labor and infrastructure bottlenecks, and support economic diversification.
- Welcome authorities’ efforts to enhance climate resilience.
- Strengthening data quality is important.
- Consultations:
- Next Article IV consultation with Samoa is expected to be held on the standard 12‑month cycle.
Selected economic and financial indicators (highlights from Table 1)
- Output and inflation:
- Real GDP (growth): 4.8 (2023/24 Est.), 4.2 (2024/25), 0.4 (2025/26), 2.0 (2026/27), 2.5 (2027/28)
- Nominal GDP (growth): 13.6 (2023/24), 10.6 (2024/25), 3.5 (2025/26), 7.0 (2026/27), 5.6 (2027/28), 5.5 (2028/29)
- Consumer price index (end of period): 0.8 (2023/24), 1.5 (2024/25), 5.8 (2025/26), 3.0 (2026/27)
- Consumer price index (period average): 3.6 (2023/24), 1.8 (2024/25), 1.4 (2025/26), 4.5 (2026/27), 3.1 (2027/28)
- Central government finances (percent of GDP):
- Revenue and grants: 35.6 (2023/24), 31.1 (2024/25), 27.0 (2025/26), 31.2 (2026/27), 30.7 (2027/28), 29.6 (2028/29)
- Of which: Tax revenue: 24.2 (2023/24), 23.8 (2024/25), 21.8 (2025/26), 21.5 (2026/27), 22.9 (2027/28)
- Of which: Grants: 8.3 (2023/24), 5.2 (2024/25), 6.9 (2025/26), 5.0 (2026/27), 4.0 (2027/28)
- Expenditure: 26.3 (2023/24), 26.4 (2024/25), 32.3 (2025/26), 32.1 (2026/27), 31.6 (2027/28), 31.0 (2028/29), 30.5 (2029/30)
- Of which: Expense: 24.6 (2023/24), 23.2 (2024/25), 22.8 (2025/26), 27.8 (2026/27), 27.6 (2027/28), 27.1 (2028/29), 26.5 (2029/30), 26.0 (2030/31)
- Overall balance: 9.3 (2023/24), 4.7 (2024/25), 0.7 (2025/26), -1.1 (2026/27), -1.4 (2027/28), -1.9 (2028/29), -0.9 (2029/30)
- Primary balance: 9.7 (2023/24), 1.1 (2024/25), -0.8 (2025/26), -1.6 (2026/27), -0.6 (2027/28)
- Primary balance excluding grants: -0.2 (2023/24), -7.8 (2024/25), -6.1 (2025/26), -5.6 (2026/27), -5.1 (2027/28), -4.6 (2028/29)
- Public debt: 25.3 (2023/24), 21.2 (2024/25), 18.1 (2025/26), 18.2 (2026/27), 18.8 (2027/28), 19.7 (2028/29), 20.2 (2029/30)
- Money and credit aggregates:
- Broad money (M2): 7.7 (2023/24), 5.4 (2024/25), 6.2 (2025/26), 6.5 (2026/27)
- Share of commercial banks in private sector credit (in percent): 55.4 (2023/24), 54.5 (2024/25), 54.1 (2025/26), 53.8 (2026/27), 53.4 (2027/28), 53.1 (2028/29), 52.7 (2029/30), 52.4 (2030/31)
- Balance of payments:
- Current account balance: 4.4 (2023/24), 5.7 (2024/25), -2.9 (2025/26), -2.2 (2026/27), -2.4 (2027/28), -2.3 (2028/29)
- Merchandise exports, f.o.b.: 2.9 (2023/24), 3.3 (2024/25), 3.4 (2025/26)
- Merchandise imports, f.o.b.: 37.5 (2023/24), 34.4 (2024/25), 34.0 (2025/26), 37.6 (2026/27), 37.7 (2027/28), 37.8 (2028/29)
- Services (net): 16.1 (2023/24), 15.8 (2024/25), 14.1 (2025/26), 14.9 (2026/27), 15.0 (2027/28), 15.1 (2028/29), 15.4 (2029/30)
- Of which: Tourism receipts: 19.1 (2023/24), 18.0 (2024/25), 17.7 (2025/26), 18.5 (2026/27), 18.9 (2027/28), 19.3 (2028/29)
- Income (net): -1.3 (2023/24), 0.0 (2024/25), -3.0 (2025/26), -3.1 (2026/27), -3.3 (2027/28)
- Current transfers (net): 23.9 (2023/24), 21.1 (2024/25), 20.3 (2025/26), 20.1 (2026/27), 20.0 (2027/28)
- External reserves and debt:
- Gross official reserves (million U.S. dollars): 494.3 (2023/24), 565.2 (2024/25), 653.2 (2025/26), 647.4 (2026/27), 654.3 (2027/28), 657.4 (2028/29), 661.9 (2029/30), 666.3 (2030/31)
- Reserves (in months of next year's imports): 10.7 (2023/24), 11.6 (2024/25), 11.3 (2025/26), 10.8 (2026/27), 10.2 (2027/28), 8.8 (2028/29)
- External debt (in percent of GDP): 23.5 (2023/24), 19.8 (2024/25), 16.7 (2025/26), 17.0 (2026/27), 18.7 (2027/28), 19.4 (2028/29)
- Exchange rates:
- Market rate (tala/U.S. dollar, period average): 2.76 (2023/24), 2.78 (2024/25), 2.75 (2025/26), …
- Real effective exchange rate: 1.2 (12-month percent change) 2/
- Memorandum items:
- Nominal GDP (million tala): 3,240 (2023/24), 3,585 (2024/25), 3,711 (2025/26), 3,970 (2026/27), 4,194 (2027/28), 4,426 (2028/29), 4,670 (2029/30), 4,929 (2030/31)
- GDP per capita (U.S. dollars): 5,581 (2023/24), 6,075 (2024/25), 6,330 (2025/26), 6,614 (2026/27), 6,892 (2027/28), 7,236 (2028/29), 7,545 (2029/30), 7,866 (2030/31)
Source: IMF Communications Department, September 16, 2026.