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IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Samoa
September 16, 2026
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IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS
PRESS OFFICER: Celina Hirt
Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org
Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2026 Article IV Consultation with Samoa.[1] The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.[2]
Strong policy buffers and prudent macroeconomic management have helped preserve stability despite a challenging external environment. Low public debt, ample international reserves, and sound policies have supported resilience to higher global energy prices, climate-related shocks, infrastructure gaps, a narrow production base, and outward migration. Following a strong post-pandemic recovery, growth has slowed sharply, reflecting weaker domestic demand, subdued agricultural and commercial activity, and higher fuel and shipping costs. Inflation remained contained for much of the year, although rising global fuel prices have recently increased price pressures. Strong tourism and remittance inflows have continued to support the external position, while fiscal policy remained expansionary despite fiscal surpluses. Nevertheless, Samoa remains vulnerable to external shocks, high exposure to natural disasters, limited economic diversification, and persistent structural constraints.
Looking ahead, growth is expected to recover gradually, supported by an expansionary fiscal stance, although the near-term outlook remains challenging. Elevated oil prices and global uncertainty are expected to weigh on private consumption and investment. Inflation is projected to rise as higher fuel and food costs pass through to domestic prices, while the external position is expected to weaken as import costs increase, although reserves should remain ample. Over the medium term, growth is projected to remain moderate, constrained by weak productivity, infrastructure gaps, a narrow production base, and labor shortages from continued outward migration. Risks remain tilted to the downside, including escalating geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, rising trade protectionism, weaker tourism demand, more frequent climate-related shocks, persistent inflation, and continued migration.
Executive Board Assessment[3]
Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They commended the authorities’ prudent macroeconomic policies, which have supported Samoa’s resilience in the face of a difficult external environment. Noting, however, a challenging near‑term outlook and downside risks—including from commodity price volatility, climate shocks, capacity constraints, and outward migration—Directors stressed the importance of preserving macroeconomic stability and advancing structural reforms to foster more diversified and resilient growth.
Directors supported using available fiscal space to cushion the effects of the energy price shock, while safeguarding medium‑term fiscal sustainability. They concurred that assistance should be transparent, temporary and targeted to vulnerable households and productive investment, with spending carefully paced in line with implementation capacity. Directors stressed the importance of strengthening project appraisal, execution, and oversight to ensure that higher spending translates into durable economic benefits. They encouraged continued improvements in the fiscal framework, public financial management, and investment planning and execution to strengthen public spending efficiency and budget credibility.
Directors encouraged the Central Bank of Samoa to maintain an appropriately tight monetary stance and to stand ready to respond to inflationary pressures. They emphasized the need to step up the absorption of excess liquidity and strengthen policy transmission. Directors welcomed ongoing efforts to strengthen liquidity management and to modernize the monetary policy operational framework. They underscored that safeguarding the independence of the Central Bank of Samoa is critical, and encouraged continued efforts to ensure that amendments to the Central Bank of Samoa Act reinforce independence, governance, and accountability.
Directors recommended continued strengthening of financial sector oversight, including close monitoring of rapid lending by public financial institutions and emerging asset‑quality risks. They also highlighted the importance of enhancing financial integrity and safeguarding correspondent banking relationships. In this regard, Directors welcomed Samoa’s removal from the EU’s list of non‑cooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes and encouraged further strengthening AML/CFT frameworks.
Directors emphasized that sustained progress in addressing Samoa’s structural constraints remains essential to lift medium‑term growth. They encouraged reforms to improve the business environment and access to finance, strengthen human capital, ease labor and infrastructure bottlenecks, and support economic diversification. Directors also welcomed the authorities’ efforts to enhance climate resilience. Strengthening data quality would also be important.
It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Samoa will be held on the standard 12‑month cycle.
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Table 1. Samoa: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, FY2023/24–FY2030/31 1/ |
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| 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | 2028/29 | 2029/30 | 2030/31 | |
| Est. | Proj. | |||||||
| Output and Inflation | ||||||||
| Real GDP | 4.8 | 4.2 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Nominal GDP | 13.6 | 10.6 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Consumer price index (end of period) | 0.8 | 1.5 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Consumer price index (period average) | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Central Government Finances | ||||||||
| Revenue and grants | 35.6 | 31.1 | 27.0 | 31.2 | 30.7 | 29.6 | 29.6 | 29.6 |
| Of which: Tax revenue | 24.2 | 23.8 | 21.8 | 21.5 | 22.9 | 22.9 | 22.9 | 22.9 |
| Of which: Grants | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Expenditure | 26.3 | 26.4 | 26.3 | 32.3 | 32.1 | 31.6 | 31.0 | 30.5 |
| Of which: Expense | 24.6 | 23.2 | 22.8 | 27.8 | 27.6 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 26.0 |
| Of which: Net acquisition of non-financial assets | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Overall balance | 9.3 | 4.7 | 0.7 | -1.1 | -1.4 | -1.9 | -1.4 | -0.9 |
| Primary balance | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.1 | -0.8 | -1.1 | -1.6 | -1.1 | -0.6 |
| Primary balance excluding grants | 1.4 | -0.2 | -1.4 | -7.8 | -6.1 | -5.6 | -5.1 | -4.6 |
| Public debt | 25.3 | 21.2 | 18.1 | 18.2 | 18.8 | 19.7 | 20.2 | 20.2 |
| Money and Credit Aggregates | ||||||||
| Broad money (M2) | 7.7 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Private sector credit, financial sector | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Share of commercial banks in private sector credit (in percent) | 55.4 | 54.5 | 54.1 | 53.8 | 53.4 | 53.1 | 52.7 | 52.4 |
| Balance of Payments | ||||||||
| Current account balance | 4.4 | 5.7 | 4.0 | -2.9 | -2.2 | -2.4 | -2.4 | -2.3 |
| Merchandise exports, f.o.b. | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Merchandise imports, f.o.b. | 37.5 | 34.4 | 34.0 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 37.6 | 37.7 | 37.8 |
| Services (net) | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.8 | 14.1 | 14.9 | 15.0 | 15.1 | 15.4 |
| Of which: Tourism receipts | 19.1 | 18.0 | 17.7 | 18.2 | 18.5 | 18.9 | 19.3 | 19.7 |
| Income (net) | -1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -3.3 | -3.3 | -3.3 |
| Current transfers (net) | 23.9 | 21.1 | 20.2 | 20.3 | 20.2 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.0 |
| External Reserves and Debt | ||||||||
| Gross official reserves (million U.S. dollars) | 494.3 | 565.2 | 653.2 | 647.4 | 654.3 | 657.4 | 661.9 | 666.3 |
| (in months of next year's imports) | 10.7 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 8.8 |
| External debt (in percent of GDP) | 23.5 | 19.8 | 16.7 | 17.0 | 17.7 | 18.7 | 19.3 | 19.4 |
| Exchange Rates | ||||||||
| Market rate (tala/U.S. dollar, period average) | 2.76 | 2.78 | 2.75 | … | … | … | … | … |
| Real effective exchange rate | -1.4 | -1.4 | 1.2 | … | … | … | … | … |
| (12-month percent change) 2/ | ||||||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||
| Nominal GDP (million tala) | 3,240 | 3,585 | 3,711 | 3,970 | 4,194 | 4,426 | 4,670 | 4,929 |
| GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) | 5,581 | 6,075 | 6,330 | 6,614 | 6,892 | 7,236 | 7,545 | 7,866 |
| Sources: Data provided by the Samoan authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. | ||||||||
| 1/ Fiscal year begins in July and ends in June. | ||||||||
| 2/ Increase indicates appreciation. | ||||||||
[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
[2] Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on the www.imf.org/Samoa page.
[3] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chair of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.
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