Portugal: Selected Issues

IMF Staff Country Reports, September 22, 2016

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Portugal: Selected Issues

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Bibliographic details

• Published: September 22, 2016
• Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475538397.002

Main findings: demographic projections and fiscal impact

• Time horizon analyzed: 2015–2100.
• Under the baseline projections of the United Nations, Portugal’s population is expected to shrink by about 30 percent during 2015–2100.
• The old-age dependency ratio is expected to more than double over 2015–2100.
• Drivers of demographic change identified: low fertility, higher longevity, and migration outflows.
• Age-related public spending would increase by about 6 percentage points of GDP under the baseline over the period 2015–50.
• Conclusion on fiscal sustainability: the public debt path would become unsustainable in the absence of offsetting policies.

Scope and focus

• Geographical focus: Portugal and the euro area (comparative context).
• Policy-relevant areas covered: Aging, Banking, Expenditure, Health care spending, Migration, Pension spending, Population and demographics.
• Analytical approach: fiscal impact estimation of demographic changes.

Policy implications and priorities (as stated)

• Without offsetting policies, demographic-driven increases in age-related spending will push the public debt path toward unsustainability.
• Implicit policy priority: design and implement offsetting policies to contain the fiscal impact of population aging (paper emphasizes need for such policies).

Key statistics and timeframe (preserved exactly)

• Projection period: 2015–2100.
• Population change: shrink by about 30 percent (2015–2100).
• Old-age dependency ratio: expected to more than double (2015–2100).
• Increase in age-related public spending: about 6 percentage points of GDP (2015–50).

International Monetary Fund. Portugal: Selected Issues, September 22, 2016.

Content in this bundle

• Portugal: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report 16/301; August 25, 2016
  • Portugal: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report 16/301; August 25, 2016 (Markdown version)
  • Portugal: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report 16/301; August 25, 2016 (PDF)