Nature's Solution to Climate Change
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- Authors: RALPH CHAMI, THOMAS COSIMANO, CONNEL FULLENKAMP, SENA OZTOSUN
- Published: December 1, 2019
Overview
- Thesis: Increasing global whale populations is a low-tech, economical strategy that can significantly capture CO2 and limit global warming.
- Motivation: Many high-tech carbon-capture solutions are complex, untested, and expensive; restoring whale populations could be an effective alternative with an existing funding model analog (REDD).
Ecological mechanisms: whales, phytoplankton, and the "whale pump"
- Whales accumulate carbon in their bodies during long lives; when they die and sink, each great whale sequesters 33 tons of CO2 on average, removing that carbon from the atmosphere for centuries.
- Comparative capture: A tree absorbs only up to 48 pounds of CO2 a year.
- Phytoplankton role:
- Contribute at least 50 percent of all oxygen to the atmosphere.
- Capture about 37 billion metric tons of CO2, an estimated 40 percent of all CO2 produced.
- This phytoplankton capture is equivalent to the amount of CO2 captured by 1.70 trillion trees—four Amazon forests’ worth—or 70 times the amount absorbed by all the trees in the US Redwood National and State Parks each year.
- Whale-mediated fertilization:
- Whales’ waste contains iron and nitrogen (and other minerals) that phytoplankton need.
- Vertical movement ("whale pump") and migration ("whale conveyor belt") bring minerals to the ocean surface, significantly enhancing phytoplankton growth in areas frequented by whales.
- Nutrient limitation:
- Nitrogen and phosphorus limit phytoplankton in warmer oceans; iron tends to be limiting in colder regions such as the Southern Ocean.
- Increasing availability of these minerals can enable larger phytoplankton blooms and greater carbon uptake.
Carbon capture potential and key statistics
- Current and historical whale populations:
- Pre-whaling estimate: 4 to 5 million whales.
- Current estimate: slightly more than 1.3 million whales.
- Some species reduced to 3 percent of previous abundance (example: blue whales).
- Overall whale populations now to less than one fourth what they once were.
- Potential impact of whale recovery:
- If whales returned to 4 to 5 million, phytoplankton and carbon capture would increase significantly.
- A minimum 1 percent increase in phytoplankton productivity due to whales would capture hundreds of millions of tons of additional CO2 a year, equivalent to the sudden appearance of 2 billion mature trees.
- Restored whale populations capturing 1.7 billion tons of CO2 annually is a scenario used for valuation and costing.
- Whale lifespan and recovery timeframes:
- Average lifespan of a whale: more than 60 years.
- Estimated time to double current whale numbers without new steps: over 30 years.
- Returning to pre-whaling numbers: several generations.
Economic valuation of whales
- Method: Present value of carbon sequestered over a whale's lifetime (using scientific estimates, market price of carbon dioxide, and discounting) plus present value of other economic contributions (fishery enhancement, ecotourism).
- Valuation results:
- Conservative estimate: value of the average great whale is more than $2 million.
- Aggregate: easily over $1 trillion for the current stock of great whales.
- Per-capita cost estimate for subsidy scenario:
- If whales returned to pre-whaling numbers and captured 1.7 billion tons of CO2 annually, it would be worth about $13 per person a year to subsidize these whales’ CO2 sequestration efforts.
Policy and financing proposals
- Analogy and model: Adapt the United Nations REDD program approach (which addresses deforestation responsible for 17 percent of carbon emissions) to whale protection—creating financial mechanisms to promote whale population restoration.
- Possible instruments and measures:
- Incentives, subsidies, or compensation for those incurring costs from whale protection (countries, businesses, individuals).
- Compensate shipping companies for altered shipping routes to reduce collision risk.
- Design a financial facility for protecting whales and other natural assets; determine funding levels and allocation across countries, individuals, and businesses.
- Governance and oversight questions to resolve:
- How much to spend on protecting whales.
- How to allocate payments and compensation.
- Which institutions will oversee compensation, monitor compliance, and collect data.
Roles for international institutions
- Suggested division of responsibilities:
- International financial institutions, UN, and multilateral organizations: advise, monitor, and coordinate countries.
- Global Environment Facility: provide support to low-income and fragile states to meet mitigation measures.
- IMF: help governments integrate whales’ macroeconomic benefits and the costs of protection into macro-fiscal frameworks.
- World Bank: design and implement programs to compensate private sector actors for efforts to protect whales.
- Other UN and multilateral organizations: oversee compliance and collect monitoring data.
Recommendations and strategic implications
- Elevate whale protection to the top of the global climate agenda and integrate whale survival into the objectives of the 190 countries that in 2015 signed the Paris Agreement.
- Promote a new mindset that recognizes and values whales’ integral role in a sustainable ocean and planet—an "earth-tech" approach that supports nature-based solutions alongside technological ones.
- Prioritize rapid action to accelerate whale population recovery to avoid multi-decade delays in realizing carbon sequestration and broader ecosystem benefits.
Source: "Nature’s Solution to Climate Change," F&D Magazine, Ralph Chami, Thomas Cosimano, Connel Fullenkamp, Sena Oztosun, December 2019.
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