How Will the World Be Different After COVID-19
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- How Will the World Be Different After COVID-19
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: DANIEL SUSSKIND, James Manyika, Jean Saldanha, Sharan Burrow, Sergio Rebelo, Ian Bremmer
- Published: June 1, 2020
Overview
- Six contributors (Daniel Susskind, James Manyika, Jean Saldanha, Sharan Burrow, Sergio Rebelo, Ian Bremmer) reflect on how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the world.
- Common threads: acceleration of preexisting trends, exposure of structural inequalities, the need for collective action, and potential lasting shifts in institutions, labor markets, and geopolitics.
- Publication: F&D Magazine, June 2020.
Daniel Susskind — Revelation of existing faults
- Findings:
- The crisis exposes long-standing injustices and weaknesses: economic inequalities, low wages for “key workers,” misinformation, and lack of coordinated international response.
- Striking variations in COVID-19 infections and outcomes reflect existing economic inequalities.
- Implication:
- The world will look significantly different only if recovery choices address and resolve these structural problems.
James Manyika — Acceleration of digital and structural trends
- Findings:
- The digital economy is accelerating: remote working and learning, telemedicine, delivery services, and cross-border data flows.
- Structural changes likely include regionalization of supply chains.
- The future of work has arrived faster, amplifying challenges: income polarization, worker vulnerability, more gig work, and occupational transitions.
- Responsibility has shifted from institutions to individuals over the past two decades; health systems and social safety nets are being tested.
- Policy implications:
- Reconsideration of efficiency versus resilience, industrial policy, and the role of government and institutions.
- Potential long-term shift toward stronger institutions, safety nets, and a more inclusive social contract.
- Warning:
- Choices made during crises can shape the world for decades.
Jean Saldanha — Need for a new multilateralism and reform
- Findings:
- COVID-19 tests limits of global cooperation; support for developing economies remains inadequate.
- Developing economies faced record capital outflows and tightening financial conditions, and are under pressure on limited fiscal capacity.
- Policy recommendations:
- A fitting UN-led reform agenda must include the IMF to address structural problems driving debt vulnerability.
- Shift development finance away from market-friendly reforms and abandon the dogma of austerity.
- Rich countries must meet their official development assistance commitments.
- Correct power imbalances in global institutions to recognize needs and rights of the two-thirds of the world’s population in the Global South.
- New multilateralism must center human rights, gender equality, and climate.
- Risk:
- Failure to respond decisively now could fatally derail the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement.
Sharan Burrow — Inclusive, resilient, sustainable recovery; new social contract
- Findings:
- Inequality between and within countries has grown; many countries lacked universal social protection, robust public health systems, or plans to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
- Working poverty and a race to the bottom have weakened the global workforce.
- Policy recommendations:
- Aim for full employment and a new social contract.
- Public investment in the care economy, education, and low-carbon infrastructure as stimulus to reduce inequality.
- Wage policy, collective bargaining, and labor market regulation to revive demand and income.
- Debt relief processes focused on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and enduring economic growth.
- Warning:
- Shortsighted fiscal consolidation would leave countries less able to deal with future crises.
Sergio Rebelo — Permanent economic changes and lessons
- Findings:
- Virus screening may become routine, akin to post-9/11 security measures.
- Investment in detection infrastructure is important, especially if immunity to COVID-19 proves temporary.
- Many economies used versions of Germany’s Kurzarbeit (short work); such policies preserve firm-worker matches and aid quicker recovery.
- Remote work adoption showed comparable productivity in some cases; remote work is likely to become more common.
- Digital transformation accelerated: e-commerce, telemedicine, videoconferencing, online teaching, and fintech expanded.
- Reshoring of production likely, but automation will limit job creation.
- Governments will be bigger after acting as insurer and investor of last resort; public debt will balloon, creating financial challenges.
- Policy implications:
- Improve and possibly institutionalize short-work subsidies and screening infrastructure.
- Emphasize international cooperation on global problems.
Ian Bremmer — Geopolitical shifts: deglobalization, nationalism, China’s rise
- Findings:
- COVID-19 accelerates preexisting geopolitical trends and will shape the next world order.
- Trend 1: Deglobalization — logistic difficulties point toward a shift away from global just-in-time supply chains and toward localized/regional supply chains.
- Trend 2: Nationalism and “my nation first” politics will grow as economic difficulties mount.
- Trend 3: China’s geopolitical rise may be accelerated if its crisis diplomacy is perceived as effective; distrust persists due to initial cover-up and opaque data.
- Risk:
- Growing U.S.–China tensions could lead to a new cold war between the United States and China.
- Observation:
- Some structural realities persist despite change.
Source: "How Will the World Be Different After COVID-19" — F&D Magazine, June 2020.
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