Graduating into Uncertainty

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Article by Harry Jacques published in September 2026 in F&D Magazine.
Theme: A record youth cohort entering developing-economy job markets amid rapid technological change and heightened economic uncertainty.
Central anecdote: Saharat Chuaikaew, a 21-year-old KMUTT engineering student in Thailand, juggling an internship, studies, and volunteer IT work while worrying that AI reduces demand for entry-level technical roles.

Global projection: "About 1.2 billion people will join the labor market in developing economies over the next decade."
Historical context: A half-century ago there were "about 500 million young adults set to enter the workforce across the world’s emerging market and developing economies."
Macroeconomic backdrop:
- Global growth described as "roughly a third lower" than around the turn of the century.
- Succession of shocks cited: pandemic-era inflation, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, recent volatility in energy markets—contributing to squeezed spending and higher living costs.
Regional vulnerabilities:
- Example: "About 60 percent of Thailand’s oil imports... come from the Persian Gulf."
- Social and political pressures: protests and unrest tied to fuel prices and purchasing power in Indonesia and Sri Lanka; in India a remark by the chief justice helping to precipitate a protest movement and the education minister’s resignation.

Concern: AI can substitute for complex tasks previously assigned to junior or entry-level technical staff, reducing demand for some entry-level roles.
Dual potential of AI:
- Positive: "AI has the potential to deliver gains in growth and productivity."
- Negative: If adoption outpaces skills development, AI "could also intensify labor market pressures for young workers."
Labor-market mismatch: Even when jobs exist, there is "a persistent mismatch between available and graduate skills."
Institutional responses: KMUTT acquired licenses for 1,000 students to be trained in how to use AI to further their careers.

Thailand:
- Student example: Saharat Chuaikaew balancing university, internship at an energy drink factory, and volunteer IT work.
- Unemployment statistics: For ages 15–24, "3.9 percent" unemployed last year; for the same age group with postsecondary education, unemployment was "13.2 percent."
- Investment: For Q1 of this year Thailand’s investment board recorded applications worth "873,741 million Thai baht ($27.3 billion)" across 48 digital projects, mostly in data centers and cloud services.
Southeast Asia and South Asia patterns:
- IMF research: "Youth unemployment is elevated across Asia but is often highest among those with the most advanced education."
- South Asia examples: joblessness among the most educated young people "ranging from about 36 percent in Bangladesh to 43 percent in Sri Lanka."
- ILO study (July): generative AI "could affect the work of nearly 80 million people across Southeast Asia," though the ILO "sees little evidence yet of widespread job losses."

Rethink education and reskilling broadly:
- Make universities and technical programs "more responsive to employer demand."
- Equip graduates "with skills that firms actually need."
Broaden career openness:
- Encourage graduates to consider public sector and alternative employment routes, as suggested by family and institutional advisors in the article.
Institutional training interventions:
- Example action: university-provided AI training licenses for students (KMUTT: 1,000 students).

"1.2 billion" people entering developing-economy labor markets over the next decade.
"500 million" young adults entering the workforce a half-century ago.
Global growth "roughly a third lower" than around the turn of the century.
"About 60 percent" of Thailand’s oil imports come from the Persian Gulf.
Thailand youth unemployment: "3.9 percent" for ages 15–24; "13.2 percent" for ages 15–24 with postsecondary education.
South Asia educated youth joblessness: "about 36 percent in Bangladesh to 43 percent in Sri Lanka."
Thailand Q1 digital project applications: "873,741 million Thai baht ($27.3 billion)" across 48 projects.
ILO July finding: generative AI could affect "nearly 80 million people across Southeast Asia."

Source: Graduating into Uncertainty, Harry Jacques, F&D Magazine, September 2026.

Graduating Into Uncertainty
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