Aging Is the Real Population Bomb
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- Authors: DAVID E BLOOM, LEO ZUCKER
- Published: November 14, 2022
Key findings on demographic trends
- Total world population passed the 8 billion milestone on November 15, 2022.
- Progression from 7 to 8 billion people took 12 years.
- World’s rate of population growth has slowed appreciably in recent decades and is projected to continue slowing.
- India is projected to surpass China in 2023 to become the most populous country; India’s average annual rate of population growth is projected at 0.7 percent during 2020–40, below the global average of 0.8 percent and just half its 2000–20 rate.
- UN projections signal an increase in the number of countries experiencing annual population decline, from 41 in 2022 to 88 in 2050 (with China included throughout).
- COVID-19 pandemic: an estimated 15 million direct and indirect COVID-19–related deaths and an almost two-year decline in life expectancy worldwide during the first two years of the pandemic (UNDESA 2022).
- Global life expectancy: 34 years in 1913; 72 years in 2022 and expected to continue increasing.
- Between 1970 and 2020, fertility dropped in every country in the world.
- When the UN and WHO were established, there were seven times more children under age 15 than people 65 and older; by 2050 these groups will be about the same size.
- Between 2000 and 2050, the global share of people 80 and older will rise to almost 5 percent.
- Population growth is disproportionately high among low-income countries and in Africa and disproportionately low among middle- and (especially) high-income countries and in Europe.
- Over 96 percent of the world’s people are still living in the countries of their birth.
Core conclusion and risks
- The most formidable demographic challenge is population aging (owing to declining fertility, increasing longevity, and the progression of large cohorts into older ages), not rapid population growth.
- Potential consequences of inaction:
- A dwindling workforce straining to support burgeoning numbers of retirees.
- An explosion of age-related morbidity and associated health care costs.
- Declining quality of life among older people for lack of human, financial, and institutional resources.
- Population aging also signals the prospect of widespread depopulation in some countries.
Demographic preparedness: objectives and behavioral changes
- Attainable goals:
- Improving reproductive health.
- Equipping people with human and physical capital.
- Ensuring well-functioning labor and capital markets.
- Establishing institutions and policies that limit environmental burdens.
- Promoting healthy aging.
- Physical activity recommendations (WHO):
- Adults ages 18–64: 150–300 minutes of moderate aerobic physical activity a week.
- Adults 65 and older: augment physical activity with balance and strength training three days a week.
- Adolescents: 60 minutes a day.
- Current shortfalls:
- One in four adults worldwide fails to meet adult physical activity standards (WHO 2020).
- More than 80 percent of adolescents fail to meet the WHO recommendation.
- Lifestyle interventions:
- Policies to support travel on foot or by bicycle.
- Alliances of schools, communities, workplaces, health systems, and governments to provide incentives and safe spaces for physical activity.
- Encouraging healthier diets low in sugar, sodium, saturated fat, and calories.
- Reducing tobacco use and unsafe alcohol consumption.
Investment and infrastructure priorities
- Age-friendly infrastructure:
- Residential and commercial construction emphasizing well-ventilated buildings that rely on clean fuels to mitigate indoor air pollution.
- Electrified mass transit and ease of access for mobility-constrained older people.
- Human capital investment:
- Training and skills programs to increase productivity and encourage participation of underrepresented groups (mothers and older people).
- Investments in primary and secondary education to shore up teaching of critical skills and cultivate innovators.
- Institutional and policy reforms:
- Promote access to quality family planning supplies and services.
- Allow more choice about the age of retirement.
- Incentivize individual saving for retirement.
- Promote economic sectors with opportunities for older workers.
- Develop and strengthen long-term-care systems.
- Promote disease prevention and early detection.
- Relax restrictions on immigration to correct mismatches between jobs and working-age populations.
- Migration and remittances:
- Increased migration could relieve demographic pressures and increase remittances.
- A recent World Bank report estimates that lowering remittance fees by 2 percent would result in an annual savings of $12 billion for migrants from lower-middle-income countries (Ratha et al., 2022).
- Liberalization of international migration policies could magnify “brain drains.”
Technology and innovation
- Promising technological avenues:
- Health technology: development of safe and effective vaccines; wearable health monitoring sensors.
- Assistive devices: robots.
- Information technology: interoperable electronic medical records and improved population-level data on aging.
- Incentivizing development and expansion of these technologies is a promising path for future gains.
Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic relevant to aging
- The pandemic underscored the need for enhanced preparedness and identified practical lessons:
- Identify gaps in the care of societies’ most vulnerable.
- Use technology to connect the homebound.
- Reevaluate work/home life balance for potential long-term health benefits.
- Renewed focus on the importance of mental health.
- The pandemic experience offers a pathway to reorient and reinvigorate approaches to healthy aging.
F&D Magazine. “Aging Is the Real Population Bomb.” DAVID E. BLOOM and LEO M. ZUCKER. June 2023. Published on July 11, 2023.
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