Grappling with Crisis Legacies: IMF Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR)

Global Financial Stability Report, September 13, 2011

Source details

Canonical URL

Grappling with Crisis Legacies: IMF Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR)

Other formats

• Markdown version
• Structured JSON version
• Bundle manifest

Bibliographic details

• Published: September 13, 2011
• Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Overall assessment

• The September 2011 issue cautions that the risks to global financial stability have increased substantially in recent months.
• Heavy public debt burdens and weak growth prospects in many advanced economies combined with a series of shocks to the global financial system.
• The crisis has moved into its fifth year and "entered a new phase in which political differences within and across economies are impeding progress to address the legacies of the crisis."
• Emerging markets, despite brighter growth prospects, face the risk of sharp reversals and must guard against the buildup of financial vulnerabilities.
• The Global Financial Stability Report provides semiannual assessments of global financial markets and addresses emerging market financing in a global context.

Asset allocation and investor behavior

• The Report examines how the ongoing low interest rate environment and high uncertainty are driving the asset allocations of long-term, real-money institutional investors.
• Key finding: such investors have moved toward safety and liquidity.

Crisis indicators, macroprudential tools, and policy guidance

• The Report looks at variables that can act as advance indicators of financial crisis.
• It examines how the use of countercyclical capital buffers can help to dampen destabilizing cycles.
• Chapter themes (summaries of analytical focus):
  • Overcoming Political Risks and Crisis Legacies: Global stability assessment, sovereign vulnerabilities and contagion risks, search for yield and credit excesses, and policy priorities.
  • Long-Term Investors and Their Asset Allocation: Longer-term trends in global asset allocation, determinants of private asset allocation, and policy implications.
  • Toward Operationalizing Macroprudential Policies: When to act? From sources of risk to systemic risk indicators; quest for leading indicators of financial sector distress; macroprudential indicators and policies; conclusions and practical guidelines.

Analytical contributions and methods

• The Report uses structural macro-financial models to derive helpful hints for moving from sources of risk to systemic risk indicators.
• It searches for leading indicators of financial sector distress and proposes ways to stitch macroprudential indicators and policies together.
• Empirical and modeling annexes provide detailed analyses, including predicting the probability of banking crises and finding robust near-coincident indicators.

Policy implications highlighted

• Strengthen monitoring of sovereign vulnerabilities and spillover channels between sovereigns and banking/insurance sectors.
• Monitor long-term investor allocations for shifts toward safety and liquidity that can amplify market stresses.
• Deploy countercyclical capital buffers and other macroprudential instruments to dampen destabilizing credit cycles and contain property booms where relevant.
• Use a combination of leading and near-coincident indicators to time macroprudential actions more effectively.

Grappling with Crisis Legacies, September 2011 — IMF Global Financial Stability Report

Content in this bundle

• Figure 1.10. Changes in the Sovereign Investor Base
  • Figure 1.10. Changes in the Sovereign Investor Base (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.10. Changes in the Sovereign Investor Base (CSV)
• Figure 1.12. Financing Sensitivity to an Interet Rate Shock
  • Figure 1.12. Financing Sensitivity to an Interet Rate Shock (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.12. Financing Sensitivity to an Interet Rate Shock (CSV)
• Figure 1.13. Size of Euro Area Government Bond Market
  • Figure 1.13. Size of Euro Area Government Bond Market (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.13. Size of Euro Area Government Bond Market (CSV)
• Figure1 14
  • Figure1 14 (Markdown version)
  • Figure1 14 (CSV)
• Figure 1.16. Bank Debt Issuance as a Percent of Maturing Debt, 2011
  • Figure 1.16. Bank Debt Issuance as a Percent of Maturing Debt, 2011 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.16. Bank Debt Issuance as a Percent of Maturing Debt, 2011 (CSV)
• Figure1 17
  • Figure1 17 (Markdown version)
  • Figure1 17 (CSV)
• Figure 1.18. Spillovers from High-Spread Euro Area Sovereigns to Country Banking Systems
  • Figure 1.18. Spillovers from High-Spread Euro Area Sovereigns to Country Banking Systems (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.18. Spillovers from High-Spread Euro Area Sovereigns to Country Banking Systems (CSV)
• Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map
  • Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map (CSV)
• Figure 1.20. European Insurers: Mark-to-Market Impact due to Sovereign Stress
  • Figure 1.20. European Insurers: Mark-to-Market Impact due to Sovereign Stress (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.20. European Insurers: Mark-to-Market Impact due to Sovereign Stress (CSV)
• figure1_23
  • figure1_23 (Markdown version)
  • figure1_23 (CSV)
• Figure 1.24. Contributions to Change in Bank Balance Sheets since End-2009
  • Figure 1.24. Contributions to Change in Bank Balance Sheets since End-2009 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.24. Contributions to Change in Bank Balance Sheets since End-2009 (CSV)
• Figure1 25
  • Figure1 25 (Markdown version)
  • Figure1 25 (CSV)
• Figure 1.26. Sovereign Credit Default Swaps: Gross Outstandind Amount
  • Figure 1.26. Sovereign Credit Default Swaps: Gross Outstandind Amount (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.26. Sovereign Credit Default Swaps: Gross Outstandind Amount (CSV)
• Figure 1.29. U.S. Household Balance Sheets
  • Figure 1.29. U.S. Household Balance Sheets (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.29. U.S. Household Balance Sheets (CSV)
• Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map: Assessment of Risks and Conditions
  • Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map: Assessment of Risks and Conditions (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map: Assessment of Risks and Conditions (CSV)
• Figure 1.30. Bank Lending Conditions for Nonfinancial Corporates
  • Figure 1.30. Bank Lending Conditions for Nonfinancial Corporates (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.30. Bank Lending Conditions for Nonfinancial Corporates (CSV)
• Figure 1.31. U.S. BBB Corporate Credit Spreads versus Real Federal Funds Rate
  • Figure 1.31. U.S. BBB Corporate Credit Spreads versus Real Federal Funds Rate (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.31. U.S. BBB Corporate Credit Spreads versus Real Federal Funds Rate (CSV)
• Figure1 32
  • Figure1 32 (Markdown version)
  • Figure1 32 (CSV)
• Figure 1.33. Global Securitization and Structured Products Issuance
  • Figure 1.33. Global Securitization and Structured Products Issuance (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.33. Global Securitization and Structured Products Issuance (CSV)
• Figure 1.35. U.S. Nonfinancial Corporate Financing
  • Figure 1.35. U.S. Nonfinancial Corporate Financing (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.35. U.S. Nonfinancial Corporate Financing (CSV)
• Figure 1.36. High-Yield Gross Issuance and Leveraged Loan Covenants
  • Figure 1.36. High-Yield Gross Issuance and Leveraged Loan Covenants (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.36. High-Yield Gross Issuance and Leveraged Loan Covenants (CSV)
• Figure 1.37. Emerging Markets: Capital Flows, Credit, and Equity Prices
  • Figure 1.37. Emerging Markets: Capital Flows, Credit, and Equity Prices (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.37. Emerging Markets: Capital Flows, Credit, and Equity Prices (CSV)
• Figure1 38
  • Figure1 38 (Markdown version)
  • Figure1 38 (CSV)
• Figure 1.39. Emerging Market Corporates versus U.S. High Yield: Yields, Leverage, Returns
  • Figure 1.39. Emerging Market Corporates versus U.S. High Yield: Yields, Leverage, Returns (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.39. Emerging Market Corporates versus U.S. High Yield: Yields, Leverage, Returns (CSV)
• figure1_4
  • figure1_4 (Markdown version)
  • figure1_4 (CSV)
• Figure 1.40. Emerging Market Corporate External Issuance
  • Figure 1.40. Emerging Market Corporate External Issuance (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.40. Emerging Market Corporate External Issuance (CSV)
• Figure 1.41. Emerging Markets External Corporate Issuance, by Sector
  • Figure 1.41. Emerging Markets External Corporate Issuance, by Sector (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.41. Emerging Markets External Corporate Issuance, by Sector (CSV)
• Figure 1.42. Emerging Markets Total Credit to Nonbanking Sector
  • Figure 1.42. Emerging Markets Total Credit to Nonbanking Sector (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.42. Emerging Markets Total Credit to Nonbanking Sector (CSV)
• Figure 1.43. Model Prediction for NPL Ratios in 2011 and 2012
  • Figure 1.43. Model Prediction for NPL Ratios in 2011 and 2012 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.43. Model Prediction for NPL Ratios in 2011 and 2012 (CSV)
• Figure 1.44. Impact of Capital Flows Declines
  • Figure 1.44. Impact of Capital Flows Declines (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.44. Impact of Capital Flows Declines (CSV)
• Figure 1.45. Impact of Terms of Trade Decline
  • Figure 1.45. Impact of Terms of Trade Decline (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.45. Impact of Terms of Trade Decline (CSV)
• Figure 1.46. Change in Capital Adequacy Ratios under Combined Macro Shocks
  • Figure 1.46. Change in Capital Adequacy Ratios under Combined Macro Shocks (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.46. Change in Capital Adequacy Ratios under Combined Macro Shocks (CSV)
• Figure 1.48. Impulse Response: Model Specification 1
  • Figure 1.48. Impulse Response: Model Specification 1 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.48. Impulse Response: Model Specification 1 (CSV)
• Figure 1.49. Impluse Responses: Model Specification 2
  • Figure 1.49. Impluse Responses: Model Specification 2 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.49. Impluse Responses: Model Specification 2 (CSV)
• figure1_5
  • figure1_5 (Markdown version)
  • figure1_5 (CSV)
• Figure 1.50. Macro Scenarios under Combined Shocks
  • Figure 1.50. Macro Scenarios under Combined Shocks (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.50. Macro Scenarios under Combined Shocks (CSV)
• Figure 1.6. Historical Volatility in One-Month Treasury Bills During Debt Ceiling Negotiations
  • Figure 1.6. Historical Volatility in One-Month Treasury Bills During Debt Ceiling Negotiations (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.6. Historical Volatility in One-Month Treasury Bills During Debt Ceiling Negotiations (CSV)
• Figure 1.7. Historical Advanced Economy Government Bond Yields around Sovereign Debt Downgrades
  • Figure 1.7. Historical Advanced Economy Government Bond Yields around Sovereign Debt Downgrades (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.7. Historical Advanced Economy Government Bond Yields around Sovereign Debt Downgrades (CSV)
• Table 1.1. Indebtedness and Leverage in Selected Advanced Economies
  • Table 1.1. Indebtedness and Leverage in Selected Advanced Economies (Markdown version)
  • Table 1.1. Indebtedness and Leverage in Selected Advanced Economies (CSV)
• Table 1.2. Sovereign Market and Vulnerability Indicators
  • Table 1.2. Sovereign Market and Vulnerability Indicators (Markdown version)
  • Table 1.2. Sovereign Market and Vulnerability Indicators (CSV)
• Table 1.3. Emerging Market Banks: Sensitivity to Macro and Funding Shocks
  • Table 1.3. Emerging Market Banks: Sensitivity to Macro and Funding Shocks (Markdown version)
  • Table 1.3. Emerging Market Banks: Sensitivity to Macro and Funding Shocks (CSV)
• Table 1.4. Macro and Financial Indicators for Selected Economies
  • Table 1.4. Macro and Financial Indicators for Selected Economies (Markdown version)
  • Table 1.4. Macro and Financial Indicators for Selected Economies (CSV)
• boxfigure2_3 — Dataset overview
  • boxfigure2_3 — Dataset overview (Markdown version)
  • boxfigure2_3 — Dataset overview (CSV)
• Figure 2.1. Asset Allocation of Institutional Investors
  • Figure 2.1. Asset Allocation of Institutional Investors (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.1. Asset Allocation of Institutional Investors (CSV)
• Figure 2.2. Assets of Institutional Investors by Country
  • Figure 2.2. Assets of Institutional Investors by Country (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.2. Assets of Institutional Investors by Country (CSV)
• Figure 2.3. Assets under Management by Type of Institutional Investors
  • Figure 2.3. Assets under Management by Type of Institutional Investors (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.3. Assets under Management by Type of Institutional Investors (CSV)
• Figure 2.4. Global Asset Allocation of Institutional Investors by Country
  • Figure 2.4. Global Asset Allocation of Institutional Investors by Country (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.4. Global Asset Allocation of Institutional Investors by Country (CSV)
• Figure 2.5. Assets under Management by Type of Institutional Investor and Selected Countries, 2009
  • Figure 2.5. Assets under Management by Type of Institutional Investor and Selected Countries, 2009 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.5. Assets under Management by Type of Institutional Investor and Selected Countries, 2009 (CSV)
• Figure 2.6. Foreign Exchange Reserves, Excluding Gold
  • Figure 2.6. Foreign Exchange Reserves, Excluding Gold (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.6. Foreign Exchange Reserves, Excluding Gold (CSV)
• figure2_9
  • figure2_9 (Markdown version)
  • figure2_9 (CSV)
• Figure3_3: Event Study Results: Aggregate Indicators Three Years before to Two Years after Crises
  • Figure3_3: Event Study Results: Aggregate Indicators Three Years before to Two Years after Crises (Markdown version)
  • Figure3_3: Event Study Results: Aggregate Indicators Three Years before to Two Years after Crises (CSV)
• Figure 1. Major Net Exporters and Importers of Capital in 2010
  • Figure 1. Major Net Exporters and Importers of Capital in 2010 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1. Major Net Exporters and Importers of Capital in 2010 (CSV)
• Figure 9. Twelve-Month Forward Price/Earnings Ratios
  • Figure 9. Twelve-Month Forward Price/Earnings Ratios (Markdown version)
  • Figure 9. Twelve-Month Forward Price/Earnings Ratios (CSV)
• Figure 7. United States: Corporate Bond Market
  • Figure 7. United States: Corporate Bond Market (Markdown version)
  • Figure 7. United States: Corporate Bond Market (CSV)
• Figure 8. Euro Area: Corporate Bond Market
  • Figure 8. Euro Area: Corporate Bond Market (Markdown version)
  • Figure 8. Euro Area: Corporate Bond Market (CSV)
• Figure 9. United States: Commercial Paper Market
  • Figure 9. United States: Commercial Paper Market (Markdown version)
  • Figure 9. United States: Commercial Paper Market (CSV)
• Table 1. Selected Indicators on the Size of the Capital Markets, 2010
  • Table 1. Selected Indicators on the Size of the Capital Markets, 2010 (Markdown version)
  • Table 1. Selected Indicators on the Size of the Capital Markets, 2010 (CSV)
• Table 10. Emerging Markets: Mutual Funds
  • Table 10. Emerging Markets: Mutual Funds (Markdown version)
  • Table 10. Emerging Markets: Mutual Funds (CSV)
• Table 2. MSCI Equity Market Indices
  • Table 2. MSCI Equity Market Indices (Markdown version)
  • Table 2. MSCI Equity Market Indices (CSV)
• Table 3. Emerging Market Bond Index: EMBI Global Yield Spreads
  • Table 3. Emerging Market Bond Index: EMBI Global Yield Spreads (Markdown version)
  • Table 3. Emerging Market Bond Index: EMBI Global Yield Spreads (CSV)
• Table 4. Emerging Market External Financing: Total Bonds, Equities, and Loans
  • Table 4. Emerging Market External Financing: Total Bonds, Equities, and Loans (Markdown version)
  • Table 4. Emerging Market External Financing: Total Bonds, Equities, and Loans (CSV)
• Table 5. Emerging Market External Financing: Bonds
  • Table 5. Emerging Market External Financing: Bonds (Markdown version)
  • Table 5. Emerging Market External Financing: Bonds (CSV)
• Table 6. Emerging Market External Financing: Equities
  • Table 6. Emerging Market External Financing: Equities (Markdown version)
  • Table 6. Emerging Market External Financing: Equities (CSV)
• Table 7. Emerging Market External Financing: Loans
  • Table 7. Emerging Market External Financing: Loans (Markdown version)
  • Table 7. Emerging Market External Financing: Loans (CSV)
• Table 8. Equity Valuation Measures: Dividend-Yield Ratios
  • Table 8. Equity Valuation Measures: Dividend-Yield Ratios (Markdown version)
  • Table 8. Equity Valuation Measures: Dividend-Yield Ratios (CSV)
• sa_table9 — Table 9. Equity Valuation Measures: Price/Earnings Ratios
  • sa_table9 — Table 9. Equity Valuation Measures: Price/Earnings Ratios (Markdown version)
  • sa_table9 — Table 9. Equity Valuation Measures: Price/Earnings Ratios (CSV)
• تقرير الاستقرار المالي العالمي، سبتمبر 2011 -- موجز للصحافة للفصلين الثاني والثالث
  • تقرير الاستقرار المالي العالمي، سبتمبر 2011 -- موجز للصحافة للفصلين الثاني والثالث (Markdown version)
  • تقرير الاستقرار المالي العالمي، سبتمبر 2011 -- موجز للصحافة للفصلين الثاني والثالث (PDF)
• تقرير الاستقرار المالي العالمي: ملخص واف --عدد سبتمبر 2011
  • تقرير الاستقرار المالي العالمي: ملخص واف --عدد سبتمبر 2011 (Markdown version)
  • تقرير الاستقرار المالي العالمي: ملخص واف --عدد سبتمبر 2011 (PDF)
• 2011 年9 月期《全球金融稳定报告》第二, 三章新闻发布要点, 2011 年 9 月 13 日
  • 2011 年9 月期《全球金融稳定报告》第二, 三章新闻发布要点, 2011 年 9 月 13 日 (Markdown version)
  • 2011 年9 月期《全球金融稳定报告》第二, 三章新闻发布要点, 2011 年 9 月 13 日 (PDF)
• 2011 年9 月期《全球金融稳定报告》概要, 2011 年 9 月 21 日
  • 2011 年9 月期《全球金融稳定报告》概要, 2011 年 9 月 21 日 (Markdown version)
  • 2011 年9 月期《全球金融稳定报告》概要, 2011 年 9 月 21 日 (PDF)
• _pressfpdf
  • _pressfpdf (Markdown version)
  • _pressfpdf (PDF)
• Rapport sur la stabilité financière dans le monde : Résumé analytique– septembre 2011
  • Rapport sur la stabilité financière dans le monde : Résumé analytique– septembre 2011 (Markdown version)
  • Rapport sur la stabilité financière dans le monde : Résumé analytique– septembre 2011 (PDF)
• 国際金融安定性報告書
  • 国際金融安定性報告書 (Markdown version)
  • 国際金融安定性報告書 (PDF)
• 国際金融安定性報告書 2011 年9 月 -- 要旨
  • 国際金融安定性報告書 2011 年9 月 -- 要旨 (Markdown version)
  • 国際金融安定性報告書 2011 年9 月 -- 要旨 (PDF)
• Chapter 1 — Selected Boxes and Annex
  • Chapter 1 — Selected Boxes and Annex (Markdown version)
  • Chapter 1 — Selected Boxes and Annex (PDF)
• chapter 2 Long-Term InvesTors and TheIr asseT aLLocaTIon: Where are They noW?
  • chapter 2 Long-Term InvesTors and TheIr asseT aLLocaTIon: Where are They noW? (Markdown version)
  • chapter 2 Long-Term InvesTors and TheIr asseT aLLocaTIon: Where are They noW? (PDF)
• Ch3pdf
  • Ch3pdf (Markdown version)
  • Ch3pdf (PDF)
• Press Points for Chapter 2: Long-Term Investors and Their Asset Allocation: Where Are They Now?
  • Press Points for Chapter 2: Long-Term Investors and Their Asset Allocation: Where Are They Now? (Markdown version)
  • Press Points for Chapter 2: Long-Term Investors and Their Asset Allocation: Where Are They Now? (PDF)
• PRESS POINTS FOR CHAPTER 3: Towards Operationalizing Macroprudential Policies: When to Act?
  • PRESS POINTS FOR CHAPTER 3: Towards Operationalizing Macroprudential Policies: When to Act? (Markdown version)
  • PRESS POINTS FOR CHAPTER 3: Towards Operationalizing Macroprudential Policies: When to Act? (PDF)
• Global Financial Stability Report
  • Global Financial Stability Report (Markdown version)
  • Global Financial Stability Report (PDF)
• Global Financial Stability Report : Statistical appendix, september 2011
  • Global Financial Stability Report : Statistical appendix, september 2011 (Markdown version)
  • Global Financial Stability Report : Statistical appendix, september 2011 (PDF)
• Grappling with Crisis Legacies -- Global Financial Stability Report; September 2011
  • Grappling with Crisis Legacies -- Global Financial Stability Report; September 2011 (Markdown version)
  • Grappling with Crisis Legacies -- Global Financial Stability Report; September 2011 (PDF)
• Тезисы для прессы по главам 2 и 3
  • Тезисы для прессы по главам 2 и 3 (Markdown version)
  • Тезисы для прессы по главам 2 и 3 (PDF)
• Доклад по вопросам глобальной финансовой стабильности: Аналитическое резюме -- Сентябрь 2011 года
  • Доклад по вопросам глобальной финансовой стабильности: Аналитическое резюме -- Сентябрь 2011 года (Markdown version)
  • Доклад по вопросам глобальной финансовой стабильности: Аналитическое резюме -- Сентябрь 2011 года (PDF)
• Pressspdf
  • Pressspdf (Markdown version)
  • Pressspdf (PDF)
• Informe sobre la estabilidad financiera mundial: Resumen ejecutivo -- Septiembre de 2011
  • Informe sobre la estabilidad financiera mundial: Resumen ejecutivo -- Septiembre de 2011 (Markdown version)
  • Informe sobre la estabilidad financiera mundial: Resumen ejecutivo -- Septiembre de 2011 (PDF)

References

• Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.
• Modify your profile
• Ordering Information
• Disclaimer
• Video
• Video
• Video
• Figures
• Financial Soundness Indicators