Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, April 2014 - Sustaining the Momentum: Vigilance and Reforms

Asia and Pacific, April 28, 2014

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Published: April 28, 2014
Series: Asia and Pacific

Overview

Publication title: Asia and Pacific: Sustaining the Momentum: Vigilance and Reforms
Date: April 2014
The five Regional Economic Outlooks are published biannually by the IMF and cover Asia and Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Western Hemisphere.
Purpose: discuss recent economic developments and prospects for the region as a whole and for specific countries; include key data for countries in the region; focus on policy developments affecting economic performance and key challenges for policymakers; analyze near-term outlook, key risks, and related policy challenges; explore current issues such as when and how to withdraw public interventions in financial systems while maintaining a fragile recovery.

Main Findings and Themes (from Contents)

I. Asia’s Momentum Is Set to Continue
- Introduction and Main Findings
- Recent Developments: Steady Growth Amid Financial Volatility
- Regional Outlook: Growth Should Remain Robust and Inflation Generally Low
- Theme 1: Preparing for the Risks Ahead
- Theme 2: Abenomics—Temporary Stimulus or a Break with the Past?
- Theme 3: How Will China’s Reforms Shape China and Asia?
- Theme 4: What Is Happening to Growth in ASEAN?
II. Corporate Leverage in Asia: A Fault Line?
- The Facts: How Leveraged Are Asian Firms?
- The Risks: What Are the Characteristics of Asia’s Highly Leveraged Firms?
- The Implications for Growth: Is Leverage a Constraint on Investment?
- The Bottom Line
III. Does Growing Regional Integration Make Asian Economies Move More in Sync?
- Is Activity Moving More in Sync in Asia?
- The Role of Trade Integration
- The Role of Financial Integration
- The Role of Synchronized Macroeconomic Policies
- The Role of Spillovers from China
- Implications for the Future
IV. Macroprudential Policy and Capital Flow Measures in Asia: Use and Effectiveness
- Asia’s Use of Macroprudential and Capital Flow Measures
- The Impact of Macroprudential and Capital Flow Management Policies in Asia
- The Use of Macroprudential Policies As the Tide Flows Out

Data, Empirical Work, and Analytical Tools (inventory from Contents)

Extensive set of Boxes (selected):
- 1.1 Are Capital Flows and Global Risk Aversion Driving Asset Prices in Asia?
- 1.2 Have Capital Inflows Boosted Credit in Asia?
- 1.5 Successful Abenomics: Good for Japan, Good for Asia
- 2.1 Rising Household Debt and House Prices in Asia: Are Household Balance Sheets at Risk?
- 3.1 Assessing the Drivers of Business Cycle Synchronization and Spillovers
- 4.1 The Macroprudential Toolkit
- 4.2 Foreign-Exchange-Related Macroprudential Policy in Korea
- 4.3 Countercyclical Capital Requirements Amid Capital Flows Volatility: Possible Benefits for Asia
- 4.4 Macroprudential Policies and House Prices in Hong Kong SAR and Singapore
Tables (selected):
- Asia: Real GDP
- 1.3 Productivity Growth and Production Structure: The Role of Trade Diversification and Services
- 1.4 Motives for Foreign Direct Investment in Asia
- 1.13 Indicator Model for Asia: Projected Versus Actual Real GDP Growth
- 2.2 Leverage Ratio Comparison
- 2.3 Nonfinancial Corporate-Credit-to-GDP Ratio
Figures and Charts (selected):
- Asia: Equity and Bond Funds—Quarterly Net Flows During 2010–14
- Selected Asia: Private Sector Credit Growth
- Asia: Headline Inflation
- Asia Financial Stability Heat Map
- 1.6 Asia: Changes in Real GDP at Market Prices
- 1.25 Impact of a Combined 1 Percent U.S. Growth and 100 Basis Points Interest Rate Shock on Asia
- 4.5 One-Quarter Impact of Macroprudential and Capital Flow Measures on Macro-Financial Variables
Annexes and Stress Tests:
- Stress Test: Debt of Firms with Interest Coverage Ratio Less than One
- Distribution of Debt by Leverage Ratio
- Interest Coverage Ratio by Leverage Ratio Bucket

Policy-relevant Analytical Focus (implied by Contents)

Monitoring and preparing for risks ahead amid steady growth and financial volatility.
Evaluating the durability and spillovers of Japan’s Abenomics for Japan and the broader region.
Assessing the shape and regional implications of China’s reform agenda.
Investigating the drivers of growth divergence and convergence in ASEAN economies.
Studying corporate leverage as a potential constraint on investment and a financial stability concern.
Examining whether deeper trade and financial integration increases business cycle synchronization and spillovers.
Reviewing the use and effectiveness of macroprudential policy tools and capital flow management measures in Asia, including their use during inflow and outflow episodes and their impact on housing markets, bank leverage, and macro-financial variables.
Considering countercyclical capital requirements as a policy tool amid capital flows volatility.

Geographic and Language Coverage Notes

Executive Summary and report materials available in multiple languages listed on the page: English, 中文, Indonesian, 日本語, 한국어, Thai, Vietnamese.
Specific country-focused analysis indicated, including Myanmar and Japan; broader regional and country data series and country listings are included throughout the report.

Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, April 2014 — Sustaining the Momentum: Vigilance and Reforms

Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, April 2014 - Sustaining the Momentum: Vigilance and Reforms

Source details

Other formats

Bibliographic details

Overview

Main Findings and Themes (from Contents)

Data, Empirical Work, and Analytical Tools (inventory from Contents)

Policy-relevant Analytical Focus (implied by Contents)

Geographic and Language Coverage Notes

Content in this bundle

References