Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, April 2013 - Shifting Risks, New Foundations for Growth

Asia and Pacific, April 29, 2013

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Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, April 2013 - Shifting Risks, New Foundations for Growth

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Bibliographic details

• Published: April 29, 2013
• Series: Asia and Pacific

Executive Summary

• Growth in the Asia-Pacific region shows signs of improving as extreme risks emanating from advanced economies have receded and domestic demand remains resilient.
• Supporting factors: relatively easy financial conditions and robust labor markets.
• Projection: a small and gradual pick-up in growth to over 5¾ percent is projected in the course of 2013.
• Emerging internal risks: rising financial imbalances and asset prices in some economies are becoming clearer into focus.
• Policy priorities highlighted:
  • Monetary policymakers should stand ready to respond early and decisively to shifting risks.
  • Macroprudential measures will have a role to play.
  • Some fiscal consolidation in many Asian economies could rebuild space to respond to future shocks and preempt potential overheating pressures from capital inflows.
  • A growing need to make tax and spending policies more efficient.
  • To sustain high growth rates and alleviate the “middle-income trap” across Emerging Asia, policies will vary by jurisdiction but will often include strengthening infrastructure investment and reforming goods and labor markets.

I. Managing Shifting Risks

• Signs of Pickup amid Receding Tail Risks:
  • Extreme tail risks from advanced economies have receded, improving growth prospects.
• Stronger Prospects Hinge on Internal Demand Dynamics:
  • Continued resilience of domestic demand will be crucial for sustaining the pickup.
• More Balanced, but Shifting Risks:
  • While external risks have diminished, internal risks such as financial imbalances and asset price pressures have become more prominent.
• A Transition to Rebuilding Policy Space:
  • Recommendation for some fiscal consolidation to rebuild buffers.
• Laying Foundations for Sustained and Shared Prosperity:
  • Emphasis on long-run reforms to support inclusive growth and prevent future crises.

II. Fiscal Policy: Dampening Cyclical Fluctuations and Supporting Inclusive Growth

• Role of Fiscal Policy:
  • Fiscal policy can dampen cyclical fluctuations in Asia.
• Increasing Space to Support Sustained and Inclusive Growth:
  • Some fiscal consolidation is advised to rebuild policy space.
  • Improving efficiency of tax and spending policies is recommended to create room for investment in growth-promoting areas such as infrastructure.
• Specific fiscal topics included in the report contents (listed for emphasis on analysis areas):
  • Cash Transfers in India
  • Fiscal Impulse, 2007–12
  • Procyclicality and Institutional Strength, 1980–2011
  • Multipliers for Government Spending and Public Investment in Asia, Four-Quarters
  • Automatic Stabilizers, 2001–11
  • General Government Revenue and GDP per Capita, 2011
  • Yields from Personal Income Tax; Corporate Income Tax; VAT and Sales Tax
  • Public Investment and Infrastructure; Public Social Spending: Health and Education; Subsidies and Social Benefits; Food and Energy Subsidies

III. Is Middle-Income Asia at Risk of a Sustained Growth Slowdown?

• Framing questions addressed:
  • What Is a Sustained Growth Slowdown?
  • Are Middle-Income Economies Different?
  • What Explains the Likelihood of Getting Trapped?
  • Are Middle-Income Asian Economies at Risk of a Sustained Growth Slowdown?
  • Can Emerging Asia Get Old before It Gets Rich?
• Policy implications to address the “middle-income trap”:
  • Strengthen infrastructure investment.
  • Reform goods and labor markets.
  • Tailor policy agendas to jurisdiction-specific needs to sustain high growth rates and support shared prosperity.

Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, April 2013 - Shifting Risks, New Foundations for Growth

Content in this bundle

• fig_box1_1
  • fig_box1_1 (Markdown version)
  • fig_box1_1 (XLSX)
• dataset overview
  • dataset overview (Markdown version)
  • dataset overview (XLSX)
• Dataset: fig_box1_2
  • Dataset: fig_box1_2 (Markdown version)
  • Dataset: fig_box1_2 (XLSX)
• Fig Box1 3
  • Fig Box1 3 (Markdown version)
  • Fig Box1 3 (CSV)
• dataset overview
  • dataset overview (Markdown version)
  • dataset overview (XLSX)
• fig_box1_6
  • fig_box1_6 (Markdown version)
  • fig_box1_6 (XLSX)
• fig_box1_7 — Dataset overview
  • fig_box1_7 — Dataset overview (Markdown version)
  • fig_box1_7 — Dataset overview (XLSX)
• fig_box1_9
  • fig_box1_9 (Markdown version)
  • fig_box1_9 (XLSX)
• Figure 1.1. GDP Growth and Financial Market Conditions
  • Figure 1.1. GDP Growth and Financial Market Conditions (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.1. GDP Growth and Financial Market Conditions (CSV)
• Figure 1.10. Asia: Current Account Balances
  • Figure 1.10. Asia: Current Account Balances (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.10. Asia: Current Account Balances (CSV)
• Figure 1.11. Indicator Model for Asia: Projected vs. Actual Real GDP Growth
  • Figure 1.11. Indicator Model for Asia: Projected vs. Actual Real GDP Growth (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.11. Indicator Model for Asia: Projected vs. Actual Real GDP Growth (CSV)
• Figure 1.12. Selected Asia: Contributions to Projected Growth
  • Figure 1.12. Selected Asia: Contributions to Projected Growth (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.12. Selected Asia: Contributions to Projected Growth (CSV)
• Figure 1.13. Asia: Financial Conditions Index
  • Figure 1.13. Asia: Financial Conditions Index (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.13. Asia: Financial Conditions Index (CSV)
• Figure 1.14. Emerging Asia: Response of Credit Growth and Long-Term Interest Rate to Non-FDI Inflows
  • Figure 1.14. Emerging Asia: Response of Credit Growth and Long-Term Interest Rate to Non-FDI Inflows (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.14. Emerging Asia: Response of Credit Growth and Long-Term Interest Rate to Non-FDI Inflows (CSV)
• Figure 1.15. Emerging Asia: Response of Domestic Demand to Portfolio Equity Flows
  • Figure 1.15. Emerging Asia: Response of Domestic Demand to Portfolio Equity Flows (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.15. Emerging Asia: Response of Domestic Demand to Portfolio Equity Flows (CSV)
• Fig1 16
  • Fig1 16 (Markdown version)
  • Fig1 16 (CSV)
• Fig1 17
  • Fig1 17 (Markdown version)
  • Fig1 17 (CSV)
• Figure 1.18. Asia: Real GDP Growth
  • Figure 1.18. Asia: Real GDP Growth (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.18. Asia: Real GDP Growth (CSV)
• Figure 1.2. Selected Asia: Equity and Bond Funds�Quarterly Net Flows during 2010 to 2013
  • Figure 1.2. Selected Asia: Equity and Bond Funds�Quarterly Net Flows during 2010 to 2013 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.2. Selected Asia: Equity and Bond Funds�Quarterly Net Flows during 2010 to 2013 (CSV)
• dataset overview
  • dataset overview (Markdown version)
  • dataset overview (CSV)
• Figure 1.21. Corporate Debt-to-Equity Ratio
  • Figure 1.21. Corporate Debt-to-Equity Ratio (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.21. Corporate Debt-to-Equity Ratio (CSV)
• Figure 1.22. Selected Asia: Nonfinancial Corporate Sector—Return on Assets
  • Figure 1.22. Selected Asia: Nonfinancial Corporate Sector—Return on Assets (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.22. Selected Asia: Nonfinancial Corporate Sector—Return on Assets (CSV)
• Figure 1.23. Selected Asia: Tier-1 Capital Ratio
  • Figure 1.23. Selected Asia: Tier-1 Capital Ratio (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.23. Selected Asia: Tier-1 Capital Ratio (CSV)
• Figure 1.24. Selected Asia: Liquidity Ratio
  • Figure 1.24. Selected Asia: Liquidity Ratio (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.24. Selected Asia: Liquidity Ratio (CSV)
• Figure 1.25. Selected Asia: Return on Assets
  • Figure 1.25. Selected Asia: Return on Assets (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.25. Selected Asia: Return on Assets (CSV)
• Figure 1.26. Selected Asia: Nonperforming Loans Ratio
  • Figure 1.26. Selected Asia: Nonperforming Loans Ratio (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.26. Selected Asia: Nonperforming Loans Ratio (CSV)
• dataset overview
  • dataset overview (Markdown version)
  • dataset overview (CSV)
• Figure 1.28. Selected Asia: Contribution to Export Growth
  • Figure 1.28. Selected Asia: Contribution to Export Growth (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.28. Selected Asia: Contribution to Export Growth (CSV)
• Figure 1.29. Selected Asia: Links to Japan and Export Growth in 2011:Q2
  • Figure 1.29. Selected Asia: Links to Japan and Export Growth in 2011:Q2 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.29. Selected Asia: Links to Japan and Export Growth in 2011:Q2 (CSV)
• Figure 1.3. Asia: Stock Markets
  • Figure 1.3. Asia: Stock Markets (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.3. Asia: Stock Markets (CSV)
• Figure 1.30. China Slowdown Scenario: Impact on Real GDP After Two Years
  • Figure 1.30. China Slowdown Scenario: Impact on Real GDP After Two Years (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.30. China Slowdown Scenario: Impact on Real GDP After Two Years (CSV)
• Figure 1.31. Japan Risk Contagion Scenario: Impact on Real GDP After Two Years
  • Figure 1.31. Japan Risk Contagion Scenario: Impact on Real GDP After Two Years (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.31. Japan Risk Contagion Scenario: Impact on Real GDP After Two Years (CSV)
• Figure 1.32. Selected Asia: Policy Rates
  • Figure 1.32. Selected Asia: Policy Rates (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.32. Selected Asia: Policy Rates (CSV)
• Figure 1.33. Selected Asia: Monetary Policy Stances
  • Figure 1.33. Selected Asia: Monetary Policy Stances (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.33. Selected Asia: Monetary Policy Stances (CSV)
• Figure 1.34. Output Gap vs. Credit Gap, Latest
  • Figure 1.34. Output Gap vs. Credit Gap, Latest (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.34. Output Gap vs. Credit Gap, Latest (CSV)
• Fig1 35
  • Fig1 35 (Markdown version)
  • Fig1 35 (CSV)
• Figure 1.36. Selected Asia: Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Balance
  • Figure 1.36. Selected Asia: Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Balance (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.36. Selected Asia: Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Balance (CSV)
• Fig1 37
  • Fig1 37 (Markdown version)
  • Fig1 37 (CSV)
• dataset overview
  • dataset overview (Markdown version)
  • dataset overview (CSV)
• Figure 1.4. Asia: Change in Credit to GDP, 2012
  • Figure 1.4. Asia: Change in Credit to GDP, 2012 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.4. Asia: Change in Credit to GDP, 2012 (CSV)
• Figure 1.5. Asia: Effective Exchange Rates
  • Figure 1.5. Asia: Effective Exchange Rates (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.5. Asia: Effective Exchange Rates (CSV)
• Figure 1.6. Asia: Changes in Real GDP at Market Prices
  • Figure 1.6. Asia: Changes in Real GDP at Market Prices (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.6. Asia: Changes in Real GDP at Market Prices (CSV)
• Fig1 7
  • Fig1 7 (Markdown version)
  • Fig1 7 (CSV)
• Fig1 8
  • Fig1 8 (Markdown version)
  • Fig1 8 (CSV)
• Figure 1.9. Asia: Contributions to 2012 Change in Headline Inflation Rate
  • Figure 1.9. Asia: Contributions to 2012 Change in Headline Inflation Rate (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.9. Asia: Contributions to 2012 Change in Headline Inflation Rate (CSV)
• Figure 2.1. Correlation Between Government Spending and GDP
  • Figure 2.1. Correlation Between Government Spending and GDP (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.1. Correlation Between Government Spending and GDP (CSV)
• Figure 2.10. Selected Tax Revenues by Category
  • Figure 2.10. Selected Tax Revenues by Category (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.10. Selected Tax Revenues by Category (CSV)
• Figure 2.11. Public Investment and Infrastructure
  • Figure 2.11. Public Investment and Infrastructure (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.11. Public Investment and Infrastructure (CSV)
• Fig2 12
  • Fig2 12 (Markdown version)
  • Fig2 12 (CSV)
• Figure 2.13. Subsidies and Social Benefits
  • Figure 2.13. Subsidies and Social Benefits (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.13. Subsidies and Social Benefits (CSV)
• Figure 2.14. Food and Energy Subsidies
  • Figure 2.14. Food and Energy Subsidies (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.14. Food and Energy Subsidies (CSV)
• Figure 2.2. Fiscal Impulse, 2007-12
  • Figure 2.2. Fiscal Impulse, 2007-12 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.2. Fiscal Impulse, 2007-12 (CSV)
• Figure 2.3. Procyclicality and Institutional Strength
  • Figure 2.3. Procyclicality and Institutional Strength (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.3. Procyclicality and Institutional Strength (CSV)
• Figure 2.4. Multipliers for Government Spending and Public Investment in Asia, Four-Quarters
  • Figure 2.4. Multipliers for Government Spending and Public Investment in Asia, Four-Quarters (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.4. Multipliers for Government Spending and Public Investment in Asia, Four-Quarters (CSV)
• Figure 2.5. Automatic Stabilizers, 2001-11
  • Figure 2.5. Automatic Stabilizers, 2001-11 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.5. Automatic Stabilizers, 2001-11 (CSV)
• Figure 2.6. General Government Revenue and GDP per Capita, 2011
  • Figure 2.6. General Government Revenue and GDP per Capita, 2011 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.6. General Government Revenue and GDP per Capita, 2011 (CSV)
• Figure 2.7. Yields from Personal Income Tax
  • Figure 2.7. Yields from Personal Income Tax (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.7. Yields from Personal Income Tax (CSV)
• Figure 2.8. Yields from Corporate Income Tax
  • Figure 2.8. Yields from Corporate Income Tax (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.8. Yields from Corporate Income Tax (CSV)
• Figure 2.9. Yields from VAT and Sales Tax
  • Figure 2.9. Yields from VAT and Sales Tax (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.9. Yields from VAT and Sales Tax (CSV)
• Figure 3.1. Past Growth Trajectories
  • Figure 3.1. Past Growth Trajectories (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.1. Past Growth Trajectories (CSV)
• Figure 3.10.Overall dependency Ratios
  • Figure 3.10.Overall dependency Ratios (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.10.Overall dependency Ratios (CSV)
• Dataset overview
  • Dataset overview (Markdown version)
  • Dataset overview (CSV)
• Figure 3.12. Research and Development Expenditure
  • Figure 3.12. Research and Development Expenditure (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.12. Research and Development Expenditure (CSV)
• Figure 3.2. GDP per Capita Convergence in the Four Asian "Tigers"
  • Figure 3.2. GDP per Capita Convergence in the Four Asian "Tigers" (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.2. GDP per Capita Convergence in the Four Asian "Tigers" (CSV)
• Figure 3.3. GDP per Capita Convergence in Seven Emerging Asian Economies
  • Figure 3.3. GDP per Capita Convergence in Seven Emerging Asian Economies (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.3. GDP per Capita Convergence in Seven Emerging Asian Economies (CSV)
• Fig3 4
  • Fig3 4 (Markdown version)
  • Fig3 4 (CSV)
• Fig3 5
  • Fig3 5 (Markdown version)
  • Fig3 5 (CSV)
• Figure 3.6. There seems to be a Middle Income Trap
  • Figure 3.6. There seems to be a Middle Income Trap (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.6. There seems to be a Middle Income Trap (CSV)
• Figure 3.7. The Impact of Changes in Fundamentals on the Probability of a Sustained Slowdown
  • Figure 3.7. The Impact of Changes in Fundamentals on the Probability of a Sustained Slowdown (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.7. The Impact of Changes in Fundamentals on the Probability of a Sustained Slowdown (CSV)
• Figure 3.8. Strengths and Weaknesses of Asia MIEs
  • Figure 3.8. Strengths and Weaknesses of Asia MIEs (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.8. Strengths and Weaknesses of Asia MIEs (CSV)
• Figure 3.9. Strengths and Weakness of Asian MIEs Relative to other Emerging Regions
  • Figure 3.9. Strengths and Weakness of Asian MIEs Relative to other Emerging Regions (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.9. Strengths and Weakness of Asian MIEs Relative to other Emerging Regions (CSV)
• 2014年4月亚洲和太平洋地区经济展望概要
  • 2014年4月亚洲和太平洋地区经济展望概要 (Markdown version)
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• Bản tóm lược chi tiết
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• Executive Summary
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• Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook: Shifting Risks, New Foundations for Growth, April 2013
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• Managing Shifting Risks
  • Managing Shifting Risks (Markdown version)
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• C20413pdf
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• C30413pdf
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References

• Disclaimer
• Press Release: Asia Leads Global Recovery, Further Reforms Will Help Address Medium-Term Challenges, Says IMF’s Asia-Pacific Economic Outlook
• Asia and Pacific: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive
• Regional Economic Outlooks
• IMF Regional Reports
• World Economic Outlook Archives
• Asia and the IMF
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