• IMF Live
International Monetary FundInternational Monetary Fund

Loading component...

Asia and Pacific

Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific

Ordering Information

Buy a print subscription
Disclaimer
Copyright and Usage

    Related links

    • Press Release: Asia Leads Global Recovery, Further Reforms Will Help Address Medium-Term Challenges, Says IMF’s Asia-Pacific Economic Outlook
    • Asia and Pacific: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive
    • Regional Economic Outlooks
    • IMF Regional Reports
    • World Economic Outlook Archives
    • Asia and the IMF
  • Subscribe

Loading component...

Asia and Pacific

Asia and Pacific: Shifting Risks, New Foundations for Growth

April 2013

Reports and Related Links:
  • English

    Loading component...

    Loading component...

    • About
        • IMF’s Work

        • IMF at a Glance
        • Surveillance
        • Lending
        • Capacity Development
        • IMF Factsheets List
        • How the IMF Supports the Global Economy
        • RESOURCES

        • IMF Members
        • IMF Finances
        • IMF Financial Statements
        • IMF Senior Officials
        • IMF in History
        • Archives of the IMF
        • Job Opportunities
        • TOPICS

        • Artificial Intelligence
        • Fintech
        • Fiscal Policies
        • Governance and Anti-Corruption
        • All Topics
    • Research
        • Flagship Publications

        • World Economic Outlook
        • Global Financial Stability Report
        • Fiscal Monitor
        • External Sector Report
        • Other Publications

          • Staff Discussion Notes
          • Working Papers
          • IMF Research Perspectives
          • Economic Review
          • Commodity Prices
          • Commodities Data Portal
          • IMF Researchers
          • Annual Research Conference
          • Other IMF Events
    • Countries
        • IMF reports and publications by country

          • A
          • B
          • C
          • D
          • E
          • F
          • G
          • H
          • I
          • J
          • K
          • L
          • M
          • N
          • O
          • P
          • Q
          • R
          • S
          • T
          • U
          • V
          • Y
          • Z
          • IMF Resident Representative Offices
          • IMF Regional Reports
          • IMF and Europe
          • IMF Members' Quotas and Voting Power, and Board of Governors
        • Regional Offices

        • IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
        • IMF Capacity Development Office in Thailand (CDOT)
        • IMF Office in the Pacific Islands
        • IMF Europe Office in Paris and Brussels
        • IMF Regional Office for Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe
        • IMF Regional Office in Riyadh
        • IMF Regional Office in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic
        • Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU)
    • Capacity Development
        • What We Do
        • How We Work
        • IMF Training
        • Digital Training Program
        • Online Learning
        • Our Partners
        • Country Stories
        • Technical Assistance Reports
        • High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
        • Strategy and Policies
    • News
        • All News

          • IMF Live
          • Country Focus
          • Chart of the Week
          • Communiqués
          • Mission Concluding Statements
          • Press Releases
          • Speeches
          • Statements at Donor Meetings
          • Transcripts
          • Views & Commentaries
        • See Also

        • IMFBlog
        • Article IV Consultations
        • Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP)
        • Seminars, Conferences, & Other Events
        • E-mail Notification
        • For Journalists

        • Press Center

          The IMF Press Center is a password-protected site for working journalists.

        • Login or Register
        • Information of interest
    • Videos
        • IMF Live
        • About the IMF
        • Conferences
        • Press briefings
        • Speeches
        • Special Features
        • Africa
        • Americas
        • Asia
        • Europe
        • Middle East and Central Asia
        • Economic Outlook
        • Annual and spring meetings
        • Capacity Development
        • Most Recent
        • Most Popular
    • Data
        • IMF Data Portal
        • World Economic Outlook Databases
        • AI Preparedness Index
        • Climate Change Indicators Dashboard
        • IMF Finances
        • Standards for Data Dissemination
        • International Financial Statistics
        • Financial Access Survey
        • G20 Data Gaps Initiative
        • Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves
        • World Revenue Longitudinal Data
    • Publications
        • RESOURCES

        • Publications Advanced Search
        • IMF eLibrary
        • IMF Bookstore
        • Publications Newsletter
        • Essential Reading Guides
        • FLAGSHIPS

        • World Economic Outlook
        • Global Financial Stability Report
        • Fiscal Monitor
        • External Sector Report
        • Regional Economic Reports
        • KEY SERIES

        • Country Reports
        • Departmental Papers
        • Policy Papers
        • Books
        • Selected Issues Papers
        • IMF NOTES

        • IMF Notes
        • How-To Notes
        • Technical Notes and Manuals
        • Staff Discussion Notes
    Email notification sign-up

    Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.

    Modify your profile



    Download Full Text

    Download
    Full Text



    ©2013 International Monetary Fund

    • Executive Summary:
    • English
    • 中文
    • 日本語
    • 한국어
    • Thai
    • Vietnamese

    Growth in the Asia-Pacific region shows signs of improving as extreme risks emanating from advanced economies have receded and domestic demand remains resilient, supported by relatively easy financial conditions and robust labor markets. A small and gradual pick-up in growth to over 5¾ percent is projected in the course of 2013. Risks to the outlook from within the region, such as rising financial imbalances and asset prices in some economies, are coming clearer into focus. Although Asia’s banking and corporate sectors have solid buffers, monetary policymakers should stand ready to respond early and decisively to shifting risks, and macroprudential measures will also have a role to play. In many Asian economies, some fiscal consolidation could also rebuild the space needed to respond to future shocks and preempt potential overheating pressures from capital inflows. In particular, there is a growing need to make tax and spending policies more efficient. To sustain high growth rates and alleviate the “middle-income trap” across Emerging Asia, the policy agenda will vary by jurisdiction but will also often include strengthening infrastructure investment and reforming goods and labor markets.

    Contents
    Executive Summary
    I. Managing Shifting Risks
      Signs of Pickup amid Receding Tail Risks
      Stronger Prospects in the Period Ahead Hinge on Internal Demand Dynamics
      More Balanced, but Shifting Risks
      A Transition to Rebuilding Policy Space
      Laying Foundations for Sustained and Shared Prosperity
    II. Fiscal Policy: Dampening Cyclical Fluctuations and Supporting Inclusive Growth
      The Role of Fiscal Policy in Dampening Cyclical Fluctuations in Asia
      Increasing Space to Support Sustained and Inclusive Growth
    III. Is Middle-Income Asia at Risk of a Sustained Growth Slowdown?
      What Is a Sustained Growth Slowdown?
      Are Middle-Income Economies Different?
      What Explains the Likelihood of Getting Trapped?
      Are Middle-Income Asian Economies at Risk of a Sustained Growth Slowdown?
      Can Emerging Asia Get Old before It Gets Rich?
    References
    Boxes
    Chart Data 1.1 ASEAN-5 Integration as a Source of Resilience
    Chart Data 1.2 Asia’s Electronics Sector: An Engine of Growth for All?
    Chart Data 1.3 Effects and Spillover Channels of a Successful Reflation in Japan
    Chart Data 1.4 Remittances: Shock Amplifier or Absorber for Emerging and Developing Asia?
    Table 1.5 Macroprudential Measures and Capital Flow Measures: The Experience in Asia
    Chart Data 1.6 Chinese Capital Account Liberalization and the Internationalization of the Renminbi
    Chart Data 1.7 How Will the Basel III Capital and Liquidity Requirements Affect Asian Banks?
    1.8 Myanmar—Reintegrating with the World
    Chart Data 1.9 Is Emerging Asia Shifting to Lower Trend Growth?
    Chart Data 1.10 Lifting Potential Growth in the Pacific Islands: Structural Impediments and the Role of Policies
    2.1 Cash Transfers in India
    3.1 Identifying Sustained Slowdowns in Growth
    Tables
    1.1 Asia and Pacific: Real GDP
    Figures
    Chart Data 1.1 GDP Growth and Financial Market Conditions
    Chart Data 1.2 Selected Asia: Equity and Bond Funds––Quarterly Net Flows during 2010–13
    Chart Data 1.3 Asia: Stock Markets
    Chart Data 1.4 Asia: Change in Credit to GDP, 2012
    Chart Data 1.5 Asia: Effective Exchange Rates
    Chart Data 1.6 Asia: Changes in Real GDP at Market Prices
    Chart Data 1.7 Selected Asia: Exports to Major Destinations
    Chart Data 1.8 Asia: Headline Inflation
    Chart Data 1.9 Asia: Contributions to 2012 Change in Headline Inflation Rate
    Chart Data 1.10 Asia: Current Account Balances
    Chart Data 1.11 Indicator Model for Asia: Projected vs. Actual Real GDP Growth
    Chart Data 1.12 Selected Asia: Contributions to Projected Growth
    Chart Data 1.13 Asia: Financial Conditions Index (FCI)
    Chart Data 1.14 Emerging Asia: Response of Credit Growth and Long-Term Interest Rate to Non-FDI Inflows
    Chart Data 1.15 Emerging Asia: Response of Domestic Demand to Portfolio Equity Flows
    Chart Data 1.16 Selected Asia: External Dependence and Role of U.S. and EU Demand versus Japan and China
    Chart Data 1.17 Asia: Headline Consumer Price Inflation
    Chart Data 1.18 Asia: Real GDP Growth
    Chart 1.19 Asia Financial Stability Heat Map
    Chart Data 1.20 Asia: Nonfinancial Corporate Debt-to-Equity Ratio
    Chart Data 1.21 Corporate Debt-to-Equity Ratio
    Chart Data 1.22 Selected Asia: Nonfinancial Corporate Sector––Return on Assets
    Chart Data 1.23 Selected Asia: Tier 1 Capital Ratio
    Chart Data 1.24 Selected Asia: Liquidity Ratio
    Chart Data 1.25 Selected Asia: Return on Assets
    Chart Data 1.26 Selected Asia: Nonperforming Loans Ratio
    Chart Data 1.27 Selected Asia: Commercial Banks’ Loss-Absorbing Buffers
    Chart Data 1.28 Selected Asia: Contribution to Export Growth
    Chart Data 1.29 Selected Asia: Links to Japan and Export Growth in 2011:Q2
    Chart Data 1.30 China Slowdown Scenario: Impact on Real GDP after Two Years
    Chart Data 1.31 Japan Risk Contagion Scenario: Impact on Real GDP after Two Years
    Chart Data 1.32 Selected Asia: Policy Rates
    Chart Data 1.33 Selected Asia: Monetary Policy Stances
    Chart Data 1.34 Output Gap vs. Credit Gap, Latest
    Chart Data 1.35 Selected Asia: FX Reserve Accumulation
    Chart Data 1.36 Selected Asia: Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Balance
    Chart Data 1.37 Selected Asia: Size of Automatic Stabilizers and Vulnerabilities to a Slowdown in the United States and European Union
    Chart Data 1.38 There Seems to Be a Middle-Income Trap
    Chart Data 2.1 Correlation between Government Spending and GDP
    Chart Data 2.2 Fiscal Impulse, 2007–12
    Chart Data 2.3 Procyclicality and Institutional Strength, 1980–2011
    Chart Data 2.4 Multipliers for Government Spending and Public Investment in Asia, Four-Quarters
    Chart Data 2.5 Automatic Stabilizers, 2001–11
    Chart Data 2.6 General Government Revenue and GDP per Capita, 2011
    Chart Data 2.7 Yields from Personal Income Tax
    Chart Data 2.8 Yields from Corporate Income Tax
    Chart Data 2.9 Yields from VAT and Sales Tax
    Chart Data 2.10 Selected Tax Revenues by Category
    Chart Data 2.11 Public Investment and Infrastructure
    Chart Data 2.12 Public Social Spending: Health and Education
    Chart Data 2.13 Subsidies and Social Benefits
    Chart Data 2.14 Food and Energy Subsidies
    Chart Data 3.1 Past Growth Trajectories
    Chart Data 3.2 GDP per Capita Convergence in the Four Asian “Tigers”
    Chart Data 3.3 GDP per Capita Convergence in Seven Emerging Asian Economies
    Chart Data 3.4 Contributions to ASEAN Growth before and after the Global Financial Crisis
    Chart Data 3.5 Frequency of Past Sustained Growth Slowdown Episodes by Region
    Chart Data 3.6 There Seems to Be a Middle-Income Trap
    Chart Data 3.7 The Impact of Changes in Fundamentals on the Probability of a Sustained Slowdown
    Chart Data 3.8 Strengths and Weaknesses of Asian MIEs
    Chart Data 3.9 Strengths and Weaknesses of Asian MIEs Relative to Other Emerging Regions
    Chart Data 3.10 Overall Dependency Ratios
    Chart Data 3.11 Tertiary Education Enrollment
    Chart Data 3.12 Research and Development Expenditure
    International Monetary Fund
    • About
    • Research
    • Countries
    • Capacity Development
    • News
    • Events
    • Videos
    • Data
    • Publications
    • Social Media Hub
    • Annual Report
    • Copyright and Usage
    • Privacy Notice
    • Contact Us
    • Careers
    • Glossary
    • Scam Alert
    • IMF Brand
    • عربي
    • 中文
    • Français
    • 日本語
    • Русский
    • Español

    © 2026 International Monetary Fund. All rights reserved.

    • IMF Live