Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, October 2010 -- Resilience and Risks

Sub-Saharan Africa, October 25, 2010

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The report features: (i) an overview of economic developments and prospects in sub-Saharan Africa; (ii) an analytical assessment of how monetary policy changes are transmitted through the region’s economies; and (iii) a study of why growth rates in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) have lagged behind other parts of sub-Saharan Africa.
The overview highlights a broad-based economic recovery under way in sub-Saharan Africa and projects growth of 5 percent in 2010 and 5½ percent in 2011.
The report explores the resilience of most economies in the region to the global financial crises of 2007-09 and attributes continued support for growth to sound economic policy implementation and a growing orientation of trade toward Emerging Asia.
Main messages from the WAEMU study: the importance of strong policy environments and political stability for achieving sustained growth; and of robust fiscal frameworks for directing resources towards priority spending needs.

The second chapter provides evidence suggesting that monetary policy may have more power to influence monetary conditions than previously assumed.
Chapter components include:
- Introduction and Summary
- Recent Shocks and the Policy Response
- How Did Monetary Policy Affect Macroeconomic Performance?
- Looking Forward
Supporting empirical materials and analyses referenced in the contents include:
- Boxes: Classification of Exchange Rate Regimes; Empirical Evidence on the Credit and Interest Rate Channels in Sub-Saharan Africa; A Model-Based Analysis of Monetary Policy in Low-Income Countries during the Crisis: The Case of Zambia; Financial Development and Other Factors Affecting Monetary Transmission.
- Tables and Figures on policy rates, reserve money growth, VAR model of monetary transmission, nominal and real effective exchange rates, reserves and exchange rate movements, excess reserves and reserve requirements, NPLs, excess reserves, and credit growth.

Chapter 3 focuses on "The Quest for Higher Growth in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and Implications for Fiscal Policy."
Key chapter questions and themes:
- How Does Growth in the WAEMU Compare with Other Sub-Saharan African Countries?
- How Can Fiscal Policy Support the Quest for Higher Growth in the WAEMU?
Boxes and case analyses include: Benchmarking Good Performance; Defining Growth Accelerations and Decelerations; Improving Nonprice Competitiveness: Lessons from Mauritius; Overcoming Infrastructure Bottlenecks in the WAEMU.
Relevant tables and figures include growth accounting, trade and competitiveness, institutional quality, structural indicators, strengths and weaknesses of infrastructure financing options, and fiscal indicators and composition of government spending.

Contents list a Statistical Appendix and References.
Extensive tabular and graphical material enumerated in the contents includes but is not limited to:
- Time series and cross-country tables spanning periods such as 1980–2009, 1995–2009, 1995–2010, 1996–2008, 2007–15, and 1995–2009.
- Figures and tables covering: Sub-Saharan Africa: Macroeconomic Indicators; Distribution of GDP Growth in 2009 and 2010; Nominal Effective Exchange Rate and Inflation; Overall Fiscal Balance; Number of Countries with Negative Growth; International Comparisons: Real GDP Growth; Private Financing Flows; Contributions to Real GDP Growth, 2003–11; The Increasing Role of Developing Asia, 2005–10; After the Global Recession, 2010 versus 2004–08; GDP Growth and Fiscal Balance; Exchange Market Pressure Index, 1990–2010; Difference in Real Effective Exchange Rate Index between 2005 and 2009; World Commodity Prices; World Growth; Revisions to Inflation and Growth Forecasts; Frequency of Changes in Inflation; Frequency of Changes in Policy Rates.
The publication also references IMF Data Mapper® for manipulating, graphing, and downloading data from the report.

International Monetary Fund — Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, October 2010