Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

Staff Climate Notes, August 30, 2023

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Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Laura Jaramillo, Aliona Cebotari, Yoro Diallo, Rhea Gupta, Yugo Koshima, Chandana Kularatne, Jeong Dae Lee, Sidra Rehman, Kalin I Tintchev, Fang Yang
• Published: August 30, 2023
• Series: Staff Climate Notes
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400252082.066

Key findings

• Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) already face higher temperatures than other countries and will be more exposed to extreme heat and weather events going forward.
• In FCS, climate vulnerability and underlying fragilities—namely conflict, heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture, and weak capacity—exacerbate each other, amplifying the negative impact on people and economies.
• FCS suffer more severe and persistent GDP losses than other countries due to climate shocks because their underlying fragilities amplify the impact of shocks, in particular in agriculture.
• Climate shocks worsen underlying fragilities, namely conflict, creating mutually reinforcing dynamics between climate impacts and fragility.

Analysis and implications

• Interaction effects: Climate vulnerability and fragility interact, with conflict, rainfed agriculture dependence, and weak institutional capacity increasing the negative macroeconomic and social impacts of climate shocks.
• Sectoral amplification: Agriculture, particularly rainfed agriculture, is a key channel through which climate shocks translate into larger and more persistent economic losses in FCS.
• Human consequences: Without effective responses, worse outcomes include forced displacement and migration.

Policy recommendations

• Macro-critical adaptation policies are needed to:
  • Facilitate the immediate response to climate shocks.
  • Build climate resilience over time.
• Sizeable and sustained international support is urgent, with emphasis on:
  • Grants.
  • Concessional financing.
  • Capacity development.

IMF response

• The IMF is stepping up support to FCS in dealing with climate challenges through:
  • Carefully tailored policy advice.
  • Financing.
  • Capacity development.

Publication and metadata

• Title: Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
• Authors: Laura Jaramillo, Aliona Cebotari, Yoro Diallo, Rhea Gupta, Yugo Koshima, Chandana Kularatne, Jeong Dae Lee, Sidra Rehman, Kalin I Tintchev, Fang Yang
• Date: August 30, 2023
• Series: Staff Climate Note No 2023/001
• Issue: 001
• Volume: 2023
• Pages: 51
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400252082.066
• ISBN: 9798400252082
• ISSN: 2789-0600

IMF Staff Climate Note (2023) — "Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States".

Content in this bundle

• Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States; August 2023
  • Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States; August 2023 (Markdown version)
  • Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States; August 2023 (PDF)