IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)-- April 2003
World Economic Outlook, April 9, 2003
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Bibliographic details
- Published: April 9, 2003
- Series: World Economic Outlook
Chapter I — Economic Prospects and Policy Issues
- File size: 497k pdf file
- Major regional and thematic analyses listed:
- North America: How Long Will the "Soft Spot" in the United States Last?
- Western Europe: Weak Growth (Particularly in Germany) and Delayed Recovery
- Japan: Weak Economy Underlines Need to End Deflation
- Latin America: Spreads Declining But Significant Vulnerabilities Remain
- Asia-Pacific Region: Has Growth Become Less Reliant on Global Developments?
- European Union Candidates: Accession Underlines Fiscal Challenges That Lie Ahead
- Commonwealth of Independent States: Oil Strength Masking Non-oil Weaknesses
- Africa: Stability and Reforms Remain the Keys to Growth
- Middle East: Managing the Demographic Transition
- Appendices and thematic boxes:
- Appendix 1.1. Commodity Markets
- Appendix 1.2. How Will the War in Iraq Affect the Global Economy?
- Boxes: 1.1 Could Deflation Become a Global Problem?; 1.2 Is the New Economy Dead?; 1.3 How Important Are Banking Weaknesses in Explaining Germany's Stagnation?
- Selected tables and special analyses:
- Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
- Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment
- Emerging Market Economies: Net Capital Flows
- 1.4 Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
- 1.5 Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
- 1.12 Impact of a Permanent $5 a Barrel Increase in Oil Prices After One Year
- 1.13 Effects of Business Confidence on Economic Activity in Selected Industrial Countries
- 1.14 Stock Market Effects on Economic Activity in Selected Industrial Countries
- Figures and topics covered by figures:
- Global Indicators; Current and Forward-Looking Indicators; Developments in Mature Financial Markets; Emerging Market Financial Conditions; Fiscal and Monetary Easing in the Major Advanced Countries; Global Outlook
- Country/region specific figures: United States: Business Cycle; Euro Area: Divergences in Cyclical Positions, Structural Fiscal Balances, and Real Interest Rates; Japan: Deflationary Expectations Worsening
- Specialized figures: 1.15 Middle East and North Africa: Managing the Demographic Transition; 1.16 Oil Prices and Production; 1.17 Nonfuel Commodity Markets
- Regional development figures: Selected Western Hemisphere Countries; Asia: External Demand and Growth; Russia: Oil Strength Masking Non-oil Weaknesses; Africa: Growth Is Highly Influenced by Country-Specific Shocks
Chapter II — When Bubbles Burst
- File size: 352k pdf file
- Focus: Real and financial effects of bursting asset price bubbles; corporate fragility and investment; what's different about the recent bubble?
- Appendices and empirical material:
- Appendix 2.1. Identifying Asset Price Booms and Busts
- 2.1 A Historical Perspective on Booms, Busts, and Recessions
- 2.2 Corporate Financial Conditions and the Severity of U.S. Recessions
- 2.3 How Do Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities Affect Investment?
- Tables and figures listed:
- Equity and Housing Price Bear Markets in Industrial Countries
- Relative Contributions to Output Growth Before and After Asset Price Busts
- Equity and Housing Price Declines; Comparing Cross-Border Synchronization
- 2.4 Equity and Housing Price Busts: Financial Associations
- 2.5 Equity and Housing Price Busts: Implications for Banks
- 2.6 The Recent Equity Price Bust in Perspective
- Corporate financial indicators and leverage tables: 2.7 through 2.13, including United States and Euro Area corporate indicators
- Multimedia:
- Video Webcast: The Real and Financial Effects of Bursting Asset Price Bubbles — By Thomas Helbling and Marco Terrones (first essay in Chapter II) — Transcript available
- Video Webcast: Corporate Fragility and Investment: What's Different About the Recent Bubble? — By Luis Catão (second essay in Chapter II)
Chapter III — Growth and Institutions
- File size: 348k pdf file
- Major themes:
- Some Background Considerations; Empirical Analysis and Assessment; Institutional Reform in Practice
- Institutional Development: The Influence of History and Geography (3.1)
- Have External Anchors Accelerated Institutional Reform in Practice? (3.2)
- Promoting Stronger Institutions and Growth: The New Partnership for Africa's Development (3.3)
- Institutional Development: The Role of the IMF (3.4)
- Empirical appendices and regression analyses:
- Appendix 3.1. Do Institutions Drive Economic Performance?
- 3.5 GDP per Capita and Institutions: Regression Results
- 3.6 Growth, Institutions, and Policies: Regression Results
- 3.7 Volatility, Institutions, and Policies: Regression Results
- 3.8 Income per Capita and Policies
- 3.9 Growth, Institutions, and Policies
- 3.10 Changes in the Rule of Law
- Figures and analytical topics:
- Economic Development; Correlation Between Institutions and Economic Performance; Effects of Institutions and Policy on Growth and Volatility; Selected Summary Statistics
- Growth and Policies in Selected Advanced and Developing Economies; Relationship Between Income and Institutions; Income per Capita and Selected Institutions; Economic Outcome Measures and Aggregate Governance
- Income per Capita and Improvements in Institutions; Growth and Improvements in Institutions and Policies; Growth Volatility and Improvements in Institutions and Policies
- Multimedia:
- Video Webcast: Growth and Institutions — Prepared by Maitland MacFarlan, Hali Edison, and Nicola Spatafora (Chapter III)
Chapter IV — Unemployment and Labor Market Institutions: Why Reforms Pay Off?
- File size: 271k pdf file
- Core questions addressed:
- Why Do We Need Labor Market Institutions?
- Is High Unemployment a Structural Problem?
- What Is the Effect of Labor Market Institutions on Unemployment?
- What Are the Quantitative Benefits of Reforms?
- Empirical appendices and modeling:
- Appendix 4.1. An Empirical Model of Unemployment
- 4.1 Regional Disparities in Unemployment
- 4.2 Labor Market Reforms in the European Union
- 4.3 The Global Economy Model
- Tables and quantitative estimates listed:
- Three Popular Measures and Their Estimated Effect on the Unemployment Rate
- Long-Run Effects of More Competition-Friendly Policies in the Euro Area
- Estimated Effects of Labor Market Institutions on Unemployment in a Panel of 20 OECD Countries, 1960–98
- Actual and Structural Unemployment Rates; Unemployment and Participation Rates; Unemployment and Vacancy Rates
- 4.4 Institution-Adjusted Unemployment Rates
- 4.5 Changes in Labor Market Institutions and Unemployment Rates
- 4.6 More Employment-Friendly Labor Market Institutions and Unemployment
- Additional materials:
- 160k pdf file — Annex: Summing Up by the Chairman (file size indicated)
- 602k pdf file — Statistical Appendix (file size indicated)
- Multimedia:
- Video Webcast: Unemployment and Labor Market Institutions: Why Reforms Pay off — by Xavier Debrun (Chapter IV)
Data, Assumptions, and Technical Notes
- Statistical and technical sections included:
- Statistical Appendix (file size: 602k pdf file)
- Assumptions; What's New; Data and Conventions
- Classification of Countries; General Features and Compositions of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification
- Box A.1 Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies
Media, Webcasts, and Outreach
- Multiple video webcasts and transcripts tied to Chapter essays and presentations
- Email notification sign-up: "Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website."
- "Research at the IMF" link present on the page
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) — April 2003 (page overview content as provided)
Content in this bundle
- Box1_1.pdf
- Box1_2.pdf
- Box1_3.pdf
- Fig1_10.pdf
- Fig1_11.pdf
- Fig1_12.pdf
- Fig1_13.pdf
- Fig1_14.pdf
- Fig1_15.pdf
- Fig1_16.pdf
- Fig1_17.pdf
- Fig1_1.pdf
- Figure 1.2. Current and Forward-Looking Indicators
- Fig1_3.pdf
- Fig1_4.pdf
- Fig1_5.pdf
- Fig1_6.pdf
- Fig1_7.pdf
- Fig1_8.pdf
- Fig1_9.pdf
- World Economic Outlook, April 2003--Annex
- World Economic Outlook, April 2003 -- Statistical Appendix
- **WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
, April 2003 -- Chapter 1: Economic Prospects and Policies**
- [WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
, April 2003 -- Chapter 1: Economic Prospects and Policies (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/2003/01/pdf/_chapter1pdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
- [WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
, April 2003 -- Chapter 1: Economic Prospects and Policies (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/2003/01/pdf/_chapter1pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,
April 2003 -- Chapter 2: When Bubbles Burst**
- [WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,
April 2003 -- Chapter 2: When Bubbles Burst (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/2003/01/pdf/_chapter2pdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
- [WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,
April 2003 -- Chapter 2: When Bubbles Burst (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/2003/01/pdf/_chapter2pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- World Economic Outlook, April 2003 -- Chapter 3: Growth and Institutions
- **WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,
April 2003 -- Chapter 4: Unemployment and Labor Market Institutions**
- [WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,
April 2003 -- Chapter 4: Unemployment and Labor Market Institutions (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/2003/01/pdf/_chapter4pdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
- [WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,
April 2003 -- Chapter 4: Unemployment and Labor Market Institutions (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/2003/01/pdf/_chapter4pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **World Economic Outlook,
April 2003**
- [World Economic Outlook,
April 2003 (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/2003/01/pdf/_frontpdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
- [World Economic Outlook,
April 2003 (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/weo/2003/01/pdf/_frontpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- Box1-1
- Box1-2
- Box1-3
- Fig1-1
- Fig1-10
- Fig1-11
- Fig1-12
- Fig1-13
- Fig1-14
- Fig1-15
- Fig1-16
- Fig1-17
- Fig1-2
- Fig1-3
- Fig1-4
- Fig1-5
- Fig1-6 — Dataset overview
- Fig1-7 — Dataset overview
- Fig1-8
- Fig1-9
References
issues of the World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)
- [Research
at the IMF](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/res/index.htm)
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