IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)-- September 2002

World Economic Outlook, September 25, 2002

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Canonical URL: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)-- September 2002

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Bibliographic details

Published: September 25, 2002
Series: World Economic Outlook

Overview

Title: World Economic Outlook
Date referenced on page: September 25, 2002
The WEO presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries.
Frequency: usually prepared twice a year as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.
File referenced: "290k pdf file" (Assumptions and Conventions; Preface; Foreword).

Chapter I — Economic Prospects and Policy Issues

File referenced: "735k pdf file"
Major regional and thematic sections listed:
- North America: How Well Will the Recovery be Sustained?
- Japan: Are Growth Prospects Picking Up at Last?
- Western Europe: A Tepid Recovery So Far
- Latin America: Heightened Economic and Financial Uncertainties
- Emerging Markets in Asia: Consolidating the Recovery
- European Union Candidates: Surprisingly Resilient, but Some Policy Pressures
- Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): Persistent Dichotomy Between Advanced and Less Advanced Reformers
- Africa: Establishing the Conditions to Grow out of Poverty
- Middle East: Growing Divergences This Year; Better Prospects for 2003
Boxes enumerated (selection):
- 1.1 How Will Recent Falls in Equity Markets Affect Activity?
- 1.2 Market Expectations of Exchange Rate Movements
- 1.3 Reversal of Fortune: Productivity Growth in Europe and the United States
- 1.4 Brazil: The Quest to Restore Market Confidence
- 1.5 Where Is India in Terms of Trade Liberalization?
- 1.6 Foreign Direct Investment in Africa
Tables and figures enumerated (selection):
- Tables: Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections; Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment; Emerging Market Economies: Net Capital Flows; Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt; and many country/region-specific tables (1.7–1.12, etc.).
- Figures: Global Indicators; Current and Forward-Looking Indicators; Developments in Mature Financial Markets; Emerging Market Financial Conditions; Global Outlook; and numerous region- and sector-specific figures (1.13–1.23).
Specific analytical items:
- Appendix 1.1. Commodity Markets
- 1.12 The Impact of a $5 a Barrel, Permanent Increase in Oil Prices After a Year

Chapter II — Essays on Trade and Finance

File referenced: "593k pdf file"
Essays listed:
- How Worrisome Are External Imbalances?
- How Do Industrial Country Agricultural Policies Affect Developing Countries?
- Capital Structure and Corporate Performance Across Emerging Markets
Boxes enumerated (selection):
- 2.1 The Global Current Account Discrepancy and Other Statistical Problems
- 2.2 How Have External Deficits Adjusted in the Past?
- 2.3 Cross-Country Determinants of Capital Structure
- 2.4 Welfare Effects of Industrial, Developing, and Global Agricultural Liberalization
- 2.5 Welfare Effects of Agricultural Liberalizations by Industrial Countries
- 2.6 Institutional Factors and Corporate Vulnerabilities
- 2.7 Macroeconomic Factors and Corporate Vulnerabilities
- 2.8 Sector- and Firm-Specific Factors and Corporate Vulnerabilities
- 2.9 Sectoral Composition by Countries
- 2.10 Measures of Sample Size, 1999
Tables and data series enumerated (selection):
- Growth of Output, Domestic and External Demand, 1982–2001
- Average Trend Balance on Goods and Nonfactor Services
- Scenario of Higher Expected Productivity and Alternative Scenario Where Expectations Are Overoptimistic
- Welfare Effects tables related to agricultural liberalization and producer support estimates (PSE)
- 2.12 Total Debt to Total Assets; 2.13 Regional Indicators of Corporate Fragility; 2.14 Institutional Factors; 2.15 Macroeconomic Factors
Media/Webcasts:
- Webcast: Tamim Bayoumi introduces sustainability of external imbalances (first essay).
- Webcast: Stephen Tokarick on benefits to developing countries from liberalizing trade in agriculture (second essay).
- Webcast: Luis Catão on drivers of corporate financial vulnerabilities in emerging markets (third essay).

Chapter III — Trade and Financial Integration

File referenced: "316k pdf file"
Major themes and subsections:
- Increasing Integration in Recent Decades
- Comparison with Earlier Historical Periods
- Why Does Trade Integration Differ Across Regions?
- Consequences of Trade and Financial Integration for Macroeconomic Volatility
Appendices and methodological items:
- Appendix 3.1. Definitions, Data Sources, and Country Coverage
- 3.1 Using Prices to Measure Goods Market Integration
- 3.2 Transport Costs
- 3.3 Gravity Model of International Trade
- 3.4 Vertical Specialization in the Global Economy
- 3.5 Trade and Growth
Boxes and numbered items:
- 3.6 Gravity Model Estimates
- 3.7 Trade and Financial Openness Across Developing Countries
- 3.8 Trade and Financial Integration Across Developing Regions 1975–99
- 3.9 Frequency of External Financial Crises in Developing Countries
- 3.10 Output Volatility, 1975–99
Specific analytical topics:
- Rising Global Integration
- Trade Openness and Saving-Investment Correlations
- Undertrading in Developing Countries, 1995–99 and Changes in Undertrading Over Time
- Bilateral Policy Restrictiveness in Developing Countries, 1997–99
- Complementarity of Trade and Financial Integration Across Countries
- Global Integration, 1870–1995
- Why Do Developing Countries Trade Less Than Industrial Countries?
- Why Does East Asia Trade More Than Other Developing Country Regions?
- Factor Content of Net Exports, 1991–2000
Media/Webcast:
- Webcast: Thomas Helbling summarizes Chapter III, addressing the complementarity between trade and finance.

Annex and Statistical Appendix

Annex file referenced: "87k pdf file" — Summing Up by the Chair; Major Currency Areas; Emerging Markets; Agricultural Policies; Trade and Financial Intergration
Statistical Appendix file referenced: "350k pdf file"
Contents of Statistical Appendix:
- Assumptions
- Data and Conventions
- Classification of Countries
- General Features and Compositions of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification
- List of Tables covering Output (Tables 1–7), Inflation (Tables 8–13), Financial Policies (Tables 14–21), Foreign Trade (Tables 22–26), Current Account Transactions (Tables 27–32), Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables 33–37), External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 38–43), Flow of Funds (Table 44), Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 45–46)
- A.1 Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies
Specific file referenced: "123k pdf file" (World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics)

Reports, Media, and Access

"Reports and Related Links: English Read More"
Video materials and webcasts referenced under "See Also" and within chapter listings.
Transcript: "Transcript of a Press Briefing on the World Economic Outlook" referenced.
Data: "The WEO Database September 2002"
Note: "Use the free Adobe Acrobat Readerto view PDF files." and "Webcasts—Technical Information" listed.

Italic: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)-- September 2002 (page overview) — content as presented on the landing page.

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References

issues of the World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)