IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting
IMF Working Papers, July 1, 2007
Source details
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- IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Eugenio M Cerutti
- Published: July 1, 2007
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451867169.001
Scope and data
- Focus: factors influencing countries' participation in IMF drawing programs (periods of Stand-By Arrangement or Extended Fund Facilities program during which a country borrows from the Fund).
- Exclusions: precautionary arrangements and periods during which the program went off-track.
- Sample: developing, non-PRGF eligible countries.
- Frequency and period: quarterly data during the period 1982-2005.
- Evaluation: out-of-sample forecast evaluation for the period 2004-5.
Key empirical findings
- Principal determinants identified:
- Country-specific variables: net international reserves and GDP growth.
- Global factor: world GDP growth.
- Temporal variation in global factor importance:
- The influence of world GDP growth appears to have been significant during the 1980s debt crises.
- The influence of world GDP growth does not appear significant since the Mexican crisis in 1994.
- Forecast performance:
- An out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the period 2004-5 reveals that the model has some predictive power.
Conceptual and methodological notes
- Definition emphasis: by defining IMF drawing programs as active borrowing periods within Stand-By Arrangements or Extended Fund Facilities, the analysis aims to link determinants more closely to the evolution of IMF credit outstanding.
- Sample restriction: analysis concentrates on developing countries that are not PRGF eligible, aligning the inference with that country group.