Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections
IMF Working Papers, March 15, 2024
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Authors: Cristina Cattaneo, Emanuele Massetti, Shouro Dasgupta, Fabio Farinosi
- Published: March 15, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400270772.001
Methodology and publication
- Authors: Cristina Cattaneo, Emanuele Massetti, Shouro Dasgupta, Fabio Farinosi
- Date: March 15, 2024
- Approach:
- Estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates.
- Control for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries.
- Use parameter estimates from the gravity equation to project global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows under different population and climate scenarios.
Main findings and projections
- Global emigration flows are projected to increase:
- between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039;
- between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049;
- between 88 and 121 in 2050-59;
- between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069.
- Primary attribution:
- Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries.
Key subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Climate change, Environment, Migration, Natural disasters, Population and demographics, Population growth
- Keywords: A. migration data, Climate change, climate scenario, climate variability, country-by-country emigration flow, Global, gravity equation, International Migration., Migration, Natural disasters, Population growth
IMF Working Paper No. 2024/058
Content in this bundle
- Working Paper