Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict
IMF Working Papers, June 7, 2024
Source details
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- Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Sidra Rehman, Laura Jaramillo
- Published: June 7, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400277818.001
Research question and data
- Research question: Do weather shocks worsen conflict around the world?
- Dataset and scope:
- Georeferencing to match weather and conflict data at the subregional level on a monthly frequency.
- Coverage: 168 countries.
- Time period: 2013 to 2022.
Key empirical findings
- Higher temperature exacerbate conflict where it already exists.
- Projection under a high emissions scenario:
- By 2060, conflict deaths as a share of the population for a median country facing conflict could increase by 12.3 percent due to rising temperatures.
Implications for policy and practice
- Integrate climate resilience into peace and security efforts.
- Design climate adaptation policies that support conflict prevention and resolution.
Subject areas and keywords (as stated in the source)
- Subjects: Climate change, Environment, Food security, Natural disasters, Population and demographics, Poverty.
- Keywords: climate change; conflict; conflict intensity; East Africa; Food security; IMF working paper No. 24/112; impact of weather; Middle East; Natural disasters; precipitation; precipitation shock; temperature; weather shock.
Sidra Rehman and Laura Jaramillo, "Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict", IMF Working Papers, June 7, 2024.
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- Working Paper