IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries: Fragile versus Non-Fragile States

IMF Working Papers, October 11, 2024

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Canonical URL: IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries: Fragile versus Non-Fragile States

Study period: 2009 to 2022.
Focus: Macroeconomic frameworks of IMF-supported programs with low-income countries, comparing fragile and conflicted-affected states (FCS) and non-FCS.
Authors: Kailhao Cai, Edouard Martin, Felix J Vardy.
Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2024/221.

Program targets for FCS and non-FCS are similar.
Optimism is present in all dimensions considered other than inflation.
No significant correlation between targets and outcomes.
For variables other than inflation, country-independent targets equal to the mean or median outcomes of other programs outperform program projections as predictors of actual outcomes.
Implication: Challenges in setting realistic, country- and program-specific targets in IMF-supported programs with low-income countries.
The paper does not study, and makes no claims about, causality.

Subject: Asset and liability management, Debt reduction, Financial institutions, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Inflation, Labor, Prices, Stocks, Wages.
Keywords: appendix H. country classification, Debt reduction, FCS classification, FCS program, Fiscal stance, fragile and conflicted-affected states, Fragility, Global, growth optimism, histogram of program approval, IMF country team, IMF program, IMF Programs, IMF working papers, IMF-supported program, Inflation, Kaihao Cai, LICs, Optimism, Pb XOXG, Stocks, Sub-Saharan Africa, Tailoring, Wages.