The Urgency of Conflict Prevention – A Macroeconomic Perspective
IMF Working Papers, December 20, 2024
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- The Urgency of Conflict Prevention – A Macroeconomic Perspective
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, Benjamin R Seimon, Raphael A Espinoza
- Published: December 20, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400293832.001
Research question and evaluative criteria
- Can macroeconomic policy effectively help prevent armed conflicts?
- Two key criteria established for effectiveness:
- The long-term benefits of prevention policies must exceed the costs associated with uncertain forecasts.
- The policies themselves must be directly able to contribute to conflict prevention.
Methodology
- Proposes policy simulations based on a novel method of Mueller et al (2024a) that integrates machine learning and dynamic optimization.
- Uses simulation evidence to assess long-run benefits and rates of return to prevention policies.
Key quantitative findings
- Returns to prevention policies in countries that have not suffered recently from violence range from $26 to $75 per $1 spent on prevention.
- For countries with recent violence, the rate of return could be as high as $103 per $1 spent on prevention.
- Paper length: 49 pages.
- Series and identifiers:
- Working Paper No. 2024/256
- Volume: 2024
- Issue: 256
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400293832.001
- ISBN: 9798400293832
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Stock No: WPIEA2024256
Interpretation and evidence synthesis
- Simulation results indicate that investing in prevention can generate huge long-run benefits.
- Analysis of available data and results in the literature suggest that:
- Sound macroeconomic policies can play key roles in conflict prevention.
- International support for sound macroeconomic policies can also play key roles in conflict prevention.
Actionable recommendations (targeted audiences)
- For global policymakers:
- Promote and support macroeconomic prevention policies that demonstrate favorable long-term benefit-cost profiles.
- For domestic policymakers:
- Design and implement macroeconomic policies that can directly contribute to reducing conflict risk, guided by evidence from policy simulations and machine-learning-informed optimization.
- For international financial institutions and multilateral organizations:
- Provide international support and policy frameworks to strengthen domestic macroeconomic prevention efforts and scale interventions with high returns to prevention.
Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance
- Keywords: Africa, building state capacity, Caribbean, conflict, conflict prevention, conflict stage country, et al, Fiscal stance, fragile state, Global, machine learning, Policy recommendation, policy simulation, Prevention, prevention policy
Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, Benjamin R Seimon, and Raphael A Espinoza. "The Urgency of Conflict Prevention – A Macroeconomic Perspective", IMF Working Papers 2024, 256 (2024), December 20, 2024, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400293832.001
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- Working Paper