Francesca Gaia Caselli

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Francesca Gaia Caselli

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Francesca Gaia Caselli

Biography

Francesca Caselli is an economist in the World Economic Studies Division of the IMF Research Department. Previously, she worked in the IMF European Department. Her research focuses on applied econometrics, international economics, and trade. She holds a Ph.D. in International Economics from the Graduate Institute in Geneva.

Profile

Education

• Ph.D. in International Economics, The Graduate Institute, Geneva, 2011 - 2015

• M.Sc. in International Economics, The Graduate Institute, Geneva, 2009 - 2011

• M.Sc. in Political Science and International Relations, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milan, 2006 - 2009

• B.A. in Political Science and International Relations, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milan, 2003 - 2006

Previous Experience

• Economist (Economist Program) - IMF Research Department Mar 2017 - Sep 2018

• Economist (Economist Program) - IMF European Department Sep 2015 - Mar 2017

Referee Activities

• Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, Oxford Economic Papers, Review of International Economics, Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Review of Economics and Institutions, Econometrics and Statistics, and Economia.

Field of Expertise

• Monetary Policy

• Public Finance

• International Trade

Books

• Aid in Fragile States (with A. Presbitero), in Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States, edited by R. Chami, R. Espinoza, and P. Montiel, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2020.

IMF Publications

IMF Books and Working Papers

• Central Bank Communication in Times of Uncertainty: AI-assisted Decoding of Recent Trends in Europe, Working Paper No. 2026/133 , June 26, 2026

• The EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility: Experience and Lessons for the Next Multiannual Financial Framework, Working Paper No. 2026/114 , June 5, 2026

• Missing Imports in the Euro Area: Domestic Monetary Policy, Cross-Border Synchronization, and Demand Composition, Working Paper No. 2025/140 , July 4, 2025

• Migration into the EU: Stocktaking of Recent Developments and Macroeconomic Implications, Working Paper No. 2024/211 , September 27, 2024

• Green Fiscal Rules? Challenges and Policy Alternatives, Working Paper No. 2024/125 , June 21, 2024

• The Return to Fiscal Rules, Staff Discussion Notes No. 2022/002 , October 11, 2022

• The Distributional Impacts of Worker Reallocation: Evidence from Europe, Working Paper No. 2022/124 , June 24, 2022

• On the Benefits of Repaying, Working Paper No. 2021/233 , September 10, 2021

• Gender and Employment in the COVID-19 Recession: Evidence on “She-cessions”, Working Paper No. 2021/095 , March 31, 2021

• Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age, Working Paper No. 2020/282 , December 11, 2020

• Individual Treatment Effects of Budget Balance Rules, Working Paper No. 2020/274 , December 11, 2020

• Protecting Lives and Livelihoods with Early and Tight Lockdowns, Working Paper No. 2020/234 , November 8, 2020

• Predictive Density Aggregation: A Model for Global GDP Growth, Working Paper No. 2020/078 , May 29, 2020

• Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock, Working Paper No. 2019/075 , March 28, 2019

• Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy, Working Paper No. 2019/049 , March 5, 2019

• Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence, Working Paper No. 2018/280 , December 11, 2018

• Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets, Working Paper No. 2018/241 , November 8, 2018

• Bunching at 3 Percent: The Maastricht Fiscal Criterion and Government Deficits, Working Paper No. 2018/182 , August 3, 2018

• Did the Exchange Rate Floor Prevent Deflation in the Czech Republic?, Working Paper No. 2017/206 , September 20, 2017

• Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets, Working Paper No. 2016/001 , January 5, 2016

Other Published Materials

• Second-Generation Fiscal Rules: Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability, Staff Discussion Notes No. 18/04, Technical Background Paper

Non-IMF Publications

Publications in Journals (Referred)

• Heterogeneous effects of fiscal rules: The Maastricht fiscal criterion and the counterfactual distribution of government deficits, European Economic Review, forthcoming, (with P. Wingender)

• Protecting Lives and Livelihood with Early and Tight Lockdowns, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, forthcoming, (with F. Grigoli and Damiano Sandri).

• Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets, International Journal of Central Banking, conditionally accepted, (with R. Bems, F. Grigoli, and B. Gruss)

• Do fiscal rules cause better fiscal balances? A new instrumental variable strategy, European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 63, June 2020, (with J. Reynaud)

• Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock, Economics Letters, Vol 188, March 2020, (with R. Bems, F. Grigoli, and B. Gruss)

• China’s Rise, Asymmetric Trade Shocks and Exchange Rate Regimes, Review of International Economics, Vol. 27, No. 1, (2019)

• Nonlinear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets, Markets, International Finance, Vol. 1, No. 28 (2019), (with A. Roitman)

• Did the Exchange Rate Prevent Deflation in the Czech Republic?, Review of Economics and Institutions, Vol. 8, No. 2 (2017)

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