Bertrand Gruss — CV

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Bertrand Gruss — CV

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Bertrand Gruss

Biography

Bertrand Gruss is a deputy division chief in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) where he works on the World Economic Outlook. Prior to that, he worked in the African, European, Fiscal Affairs, and Western Hemisphere Departments of the IMF, and at the Central Bank of Uruguay. His research interests include monetary policy, commodity prices, macro financial linkages, and capital flows. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the European University Institute.

Profile

Education

• Ph.D. in Economics, European University Institute, 2010

• M.A. in Economics, European University Institute, 2007

• B.A. in Economics, Universidad de la República (Uruguay), 2004

Previous Experience

• International Monetary Fund, 2010-present.

• Central Bank of Uruguay, Research Department, 2004-2006.

Current Position

• Deputy Division Chief, IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division.

IMF Career

• Deputy Division Chief, Research Department, 2023-present.

• Senior Economist, African Department, 2021–2023.

• Senior Economist, European Department, 2019–2021.

• Economist, Research Department, 2016–2019.

• Economist, Western Hemisphere Department, 2013–2016.

• Economist, European Department, 2012–2013.

• Economist, Fiscal Affairs Department, 2010–2012.

Field of Expertise

• Open Economy Macroeconomics

• Monetary Policy

• International Macroeconomics

IMF Direct Blog Posts

• Support for Economic Reforms Hinges on Communication, Engagement, and Trust, October 2024.

• Central Bank Credibility Pays Off in Times of Stress, October 2018.

• The Decline in Manufacturing Jobs: Not Necessarily a Cause for Concern, April 2018

• Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: Sustaining Growth in a Less Supportive External Environment, April 2017

• Learning to Adjust: The Effects of Currency Depreciations on Inflation in Latin America, May 2016

• To Hike or Not to Hike? Monetary Policy in Latin America During Fed Liftoff, October 2015.

• Mind the Dragon: Latin America’s Exposure to China, November 2014.

• A Downturn Without Layoffs? Reconciling Growth And Labor Markets In Latin America, October 2014.

• América Latina: Creciendo sin la locomotora de los commodities, June 2014.

IMF Publications

IMF Books and Working Papers

• Can Healthy Aging Boost Labor Supply? Evidence from Korea, Working Paper No. 2025/260 , December 12, 2025

• The Labor Market Implications of Healthy Aging, Working Paper No. 2025/229 , November 7, 2025

• Shifting Perceptions: Unpacking Public Support for Immigrant Workers Integration in the Labor Market, Working Paper No. 2024/217 , October 16, 2024

• Private Participation and its Discontents: Insights from Large-Scale Surveys, Working Paper No. 2024/216 , October 16, 2024

• European Labor Markets and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Fallout and the Path Ahead, Departmental Paper No 2022/004 , March 3, 2022

• Monetary Policy Surprises and Inflation Expectation Dispersion, Working Paper No. 2020/252 , November 13, 2020

• Exiting from Lockdowns: Early Evidence from Reopenings in Europe, Working Paper No. 2020/218 , October 21, 2020

• Domestic Amplifiers of External Shocks: Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies, Working Paper No. 2019/128 , June 17, 2019

• Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock, Working Paper No. 2019/075 , March 28, 2019

• Commodity Terms of Trade: A New Database, Working Paper No. 2019/021 , January 24, 2019

• Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence, Working Paper No. 2018/280 , December 11, 2018

• Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets, Working Paper No. 2018/241 , November 8, 2018

• Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions, Working Paper No. 2018/052 , March 12, 2018

• Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency, Working Paper No. 2018/024 , January 25, 2018

• Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Working Paper No. 2016/240 , December 13, 2016

• U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates, Working Paper No. 2016/195 , September 29, 2016

• Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy, Working Paper No. 2016/108 , June 8, 2016

• Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe, Working Paper No. 2015/015 , January 23, 2015

• After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, Working Paper No. 2014/154 , August 14, 2014

• Macroeconomic and Welfare Costs of U.S. Fiscal Imbalances, Working Paper No. 2012/038 , January 1, 2012

• The Volatility Costs of Procyclical Lending Standards: An Assessment Using a Dsge Model, Working Paper No. 2009/035 , March 1, 2009

Other Published Materials

• The Rise of the Silver Economhttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-Policy-Papers/Issues/2022/03/02/European-Labor-Markets-and-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-Fallout-and-the-Path-Ahead-512327y: Global Implications of Population Aging, Chapter 2 of the April 2025 World Economic Outlook.

• Understanding the Social Acceptability of Structural Reforms, Chapter 3 of the October 2024 World Economic Outlook.

• European Labor Markets and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Fallout and the Path Ahead, EUR Departmental Paper No 2022/004.

• Europe’s Exit from Lockdowns: Early Lessons from the First Wave, Chapter 2 of the October 2020 Regional Economic Outlook: Europe.

• Challenges for Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets as Global Financial Conditions Normalize, Chapter 3 of the October 2018 World Economic Outlook.

• Manufacturing Jobs: Implications for Productivity and Inequality, Chapter 3 of the April 2018 World Economic Outlook.

• Roads Less Traveled: Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies in a Complicated External Environment, Chapter 2 of the April 2017 World Economic Outlook.

• Global Disinflation in an Era of Constrained Monetary Policy, Chapter 3 of the October 2016 World Economic Outlook.

• Monetary policy in Latin America: Implications from Global Financial Integration, joint with Y. Carrière-Swallow), in Challenges for Central Banking: Perspectives from Latin America, edited by Y. Carrie`re-Swallow, H. Faruqee, L.I. Ja´come, and K. Srinivasan, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2016

• To Hike or Not to Hike: Is That an Option for Latin America? Assessing Monetary Policy Autonomy, Chapter 3 of the October 2015 Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere Department.

• The Commodity Price Bust: Fiscal and External Implications for Latin America, Chapter 3 of the April 2015 Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere Department.

• After the Boom—Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, Chapter 4 of the April 2014 Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere Department.

• Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Latin America, Chapter 4 of the April 2016 Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere Department.

Non-IMF Publications

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

• Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets, joint with R. Bems, F. Caselli, and F. Grigoli, International Journal of Central Banking 18(4): 125-163 (2022).

• Reopening strategies, mobility and COVID-19 infections in Europe: panel data analysis, joint with J. Franks, C. Mulas-Granados, M. Patnam, and S. Weber. BMJ open 12, no. 2 (2022): e055938.

• Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence, joint with R. Bems, F. Caselli, and F. Grigoli, Journal of International Economics 132 (2021).

• Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through, joint with Y. Carrière-Swallow, N. Magud, and F. Valencia; International Journal of Central Banking 17(3): 61-94 (2021)

• Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: External Conditions and Domestic Amplifiers, joint with M. S. Nabar and M. Poplawski-Ribeiro, Open Economies Review (2020).

• Gains from anchoring inflation expectations: Evidence from the taper tantrum shock, joint with R. Bems, F. Caselli, F. Grigoli; Economic Letters, Vol. 188, (2019).

• Boom, Bust, Recovery: Forensics of the Latvia Crisis, joint with O. Blanchard and M. Griffiths, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2013, pp. 325-388.

• Depositors’ Discipline in Uruguayan Banks, joint with V. Goday and J. Ponce, Revista de economía 12.2 (2005): 167-190.

Other Published Materials

• Regime Switching Interest Rates and Fluctuations in Emerging Markets, joint with K. Mertens, EUI Working Papers 2009/22, June 2009

Content in this bundle

• Executive Summary vii
  • Executive Summary vii (Markdown version)
  • Executive Summary vii (PDF)
• C2
  • C2 (Markdown version)
  • C2 (PDF)
• c3 - Introduction
  • c3 - Introduction (Markdown version)
  • c3 - Introduction (PDF)
• CHAPTER 3 UNDERSTANDING THE SOCIAL ACCEPTABILITY OF STRUCTURAL REFORMS
  • CHAPTER 3 UNDERSTANDING THE SOCIAL ACCEPTABILITY OF STRUCTURAL REFORMS (Markdown version)
  • CHAPTER 3 UNDERSTANDING THE SOCIAL ACCEPTABILITY OF STRUCTURAL REFORMS (PDF)
• ch2
  • ch2 (Markdown version)
  • ch2 (PDF)
• Chap3 (PDF)
• Chap3 (PDF)
• C3 (PDF)