Giovanni Melina

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Giovanni Melina

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Giovanni Melina

Biography

Giovanni Melina is Deputy Division Chief in the Regional Analytics and Strategy Division of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, where he supports country surveillance and policy engagement across the region. He previously served as Deputy Division Chief in the IMF’s Research Department, where he led analytical work on the macroeconomic implications of artificial intelligence, new labor market trends, and energy policies. Earlier, he worked in the IMF’s African Department as Senior Desk Economist for Uganda, where he was closely involved in the monitoring of the IMF-supported program, after spending several years in the IMF’s Research Department as an economist. Before joining the Fund, he was Associate Professor of Macroeconomics at City, University of London, after earning a PhD in Economics from Birkbeck, University of London.

Profile

Education

• PhD in Economics at Birkbeck College, University of London, UK

Previous Experience

• Deputy Division Chief, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, USA

• Senior Economist, African Department, International Monetary Fund, USA

• Economist, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, USA

• Associate Professor in Macroeconomics, City University London, UK

• Assistant Professor in Macroeconomics, City University London, UK

• Economist, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, USA

• ESRC-funded Research Fellow, University of Surrey, UK

• PhD intern, International Monetary Fund, USA

• Economist, HM Treasury, UK

Current Position

• Deputy Division Chief, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, USA

Other Professional Positions

• CESifo Research Network Fellow, Munich, Germany

Field of Expertise

• Economic Modeling

• Development Economics

• Energy and Environmental Economics

• Public Finance

• Monetary Policy

IMF Publications

IMF Books and Working Papers

• Bridging Skill Gaps for the Future: New Jobs Creation in the AI Age, Staff Discussion Notes No. 2026/001 , January 14, 2026

• From Servers to Rates: AI, ICT Capital, and the Natural Rate, Working Paper No. 2025/224 , October 31, 2025

• Time-Varying Impacts of Government Spending on CO2 Emissions, Working Paper No. 2025/132 , July 4, 2025

• Power Hungry: How AI Will Drive Energy Demand, Working Paper No. 2025/081 , April 22, 2025

• The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap, Working Paper No. 2025/076 , April 11, 2025

• Harnessing Renewables in Sub-Saharan Africa: Barriers, Reforms, and Economic Prospects, Staff Climate Note No 2024/005 , October 9, 2024

• Economic Diversification in Developing Countries: Lessons from Country Experiences with Broad-Based and Industrial Policies, Departmental Paper No 2024/006 , July 30, 2024

• Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work, Staff Discussion Notes No. 2024/001 , January 14, 2024

• Market Reforms and Public Debt Dynamics in Emerging Market and Developing Economies, Staff Discussion Notes No. 2023/005 , September 12, 2023

• Climate Change and Select Financial Instruments:An Overview of Opportunities and Challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa, Staff Climate Note No 2022/009 , November 1, 2022

• Monetary Policy in Disaster-Prone Developing Countries, Working Paper No. 2022/067 , April 1, 2022

• DIGNAR-19 Toolkit Manual, Technical Notes and Manuals No. 2021/007 , June 23, 2021

• Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change in the Maldives, Working Paper No. 2021/096 , April 23, 2021

• Macroeconomic Research in Low-income Countries: Advances Made in Five Key Areas Through a DFID-IMF Collaboration, Departmental Paper No 2021/006 , March 24, 2021

• Building Back Better: How Big Are Green Spending Multipliers?, Working Paper No. 2021/087 , March 19, 2021

• The Impact of r-g on the Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier, Working Paper No. 2021/039 , February 12, 2021

• How Loose, How Tight? A Measure of Monetary and Fiscal Stance for the Euro Area, Working Paper No. 2020/086 , June 5, 2020

• Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries, Working Paper No. 2019/217 , October 11, 2019

• The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound, Working Paper No. 2019/133 , June 28, 2019

• Macro-Fiscal Gains from Anti-Corruption Reforms in the Republic of Congo, Working Paper No. 2019/121 , June 3, 2019

• Some Policy Lessons from Country Applications of the DIG and DIGNAR Models, Working Paper No. 2019/062 , March 18, 2019

• Policy Trade-Offs in Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: The Case of St. Lucia, Working Paper No. 2019/054 , March 8, 2019

• The Distributional Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Economies, Working Paper No. 2018/057 , March 14, 2018

• Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa, Working Paper No. 2018/040 , March 5, 2018

• Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods, Working Paper No. 2017/290 , December 22, 2017

• Leaning Against Windy Bank Lending, Working Paper No. 2017/179 , July 31, 2017

• Investing in Public Infrastructure: Roads or Schools?, Working Paper No. 2017/105 , May 4, 2017

• Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management, Working Paper No. 2017/078 , March 30, 2017

• Sectoral Labor Mobility and Optimal Monetary Policy, Working Paper No. 2017/040 , March 6, 2017

• Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt, and Stagnation: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, Working Paper No. 2016/104 , May 23, 2016

• Debt Sustainability, Public Investment, and Natural Resources in Developing Countries: the DIGNAR Model, Working Paper No. 2014/050 , March 31, 2014

• Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique, Working Paper No. 2013/261 , December 23, 2013

• Fiscal Policy and Lending Relationships, Working Paper No. 2013/141 , June 5, 2013

• A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery, Working Paper No. 2013/017 , January 18, 2013

• Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan, Working Paper No. 2012/190 , July 1, 2012

• Public Debt Targeting An Application to the Caribbean, Working Paper No. 2011/203 , August 1, 2011

IMF Country Reports

• Uganda--Enhancing resilience to climate change, Selected Issues Paper, Staff Report for the 2021 Article IV Consultation and First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, IMF Country Report No. 2022/077, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• “Guinea—Diversification and Medium-Term Growth Prospects” (with Zamid Aligishiev), Annex V, Staff Report for the 2021 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• “Botswana—Estimating the Impact of Risks Using the DIGNAR-19 Framework” (with Zamid Aligishiev), Box X, Staff Report for the 2021 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• “Nigeria—Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 Resurgence in Nigeria” (with Gabriela Cugat and Felipe Zanna), Box 2, Staff Report for the 2020 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• Iraq—Quantifying the Macroeconomic Benefits of Improved Governance (with Alessandro Cantelmo), Box 1, Staff Report for the 2019 Article IV Consultation with Iraq, IMF Country Report, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• Saint Lucia—Policy Trade-Offs in Building Resilience to Natural Disasters (with Leo Bonato, Alessandro Cantelmo and Gonzalo Salinas), Annex VI, Staff Report for the 2018 Article IV Consultation with Saint Lucia, IMF Country Report, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• Thailand—Public Investment, Growth and Debt Sustainability (with Pablo Lopez Murphy), Appendix VII, Staff Report for the 2017 Article IV Consultation with Thailand, IMF Country Report No. 17/136, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• Namibia—Calibrating "Growth-Friendly" Fiscal Consolidation in Namibia, Selected Issues Paper, Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation with Namibia, IMF Country Report No. 16/374, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• Namibia—Enhancing the Responsiveness of Employment to Growth in Namibia, Selected Issues Paper, Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation with Namibia, IMF Country Report No. 16/374, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• Caribbean Region—Public Debt Targeting. An application to the Caribbean (with Alejandro Guerson), in Gaston, G. (Editor), 2014, Managing Economic Volatility in Latin America, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• Mozambique—Natural Resource Wealth and Public Investment Strategy: Implications for Growth and Debt (with Yi Xiong), in Ross, D. (Editor), 2014, Mozambique Rising: Building a New Tomorrow, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• Mozambique—Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability” (with Yi Xiong), Appendix IV, Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Mozambique, IMF Country Report No. 13/200, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Other Published Materials

• Staff Discussion Note: Bridging Skill Gaps for the Future: New Jobs Creation in the AI Age (with IMF colleagues), IMF Staff Discussion Note 2026/001, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.

• World Economic Outlook: “Power Hungry: How AI Will Drive Energy Demand” (with IMF colleagues), Commodity Special Feature, Chapter 1, World Economic Outlook, April 2025, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• Staff Climate Note: Harnessing Renewables in Sub-Saharan Africa: Barriers, Reforms, and Economic Prospects (with IMF colleagues), Staff Climate Note No 2024/005, October 09, 2024

• Departmental Paper: Economic Diversification in Developing Countries: Lessons from Country Experiences with Broad-Based and Industrial Policies (with IMF colleagues), Departmental Paper No 2024/006, July 30, 2024

• Staff Discussion Note: Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work (with IMF colleagues), IMF Staff Discussion Note 2024/001, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.

• Staff Discussion Note: Market Reforms and Public Debt Dynamics in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (with IMF colleagues), IMF Staff Discussion Note 2023/005, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.

• Staff Climate Note: Climate Change and Select Financial Instruments: An Overview of Opportunities and Challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa (with IMF colleagues), IMF Staff Climate Note 2022/009, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.

• Board Paper: Update on the Joint IMF-WB Multipronged Approach to Address Debt Vulnerabilities (with IMF colleagues), IMF Policy Paper, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• Regional Economic Outlook—Sub-Saharan Africa: Adapting to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (with IMF colleagues), Chapter 2, Sub-Saharan Africa—Regional Economic Outlook, April 2020,Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• World Economic Outlook: Reigniting Growth in Emerging Market and Low-Income Economies: What Role for Structural Reforms? (with Gabriele Ciminelli, Romain Duval, Davide Furceri, Guzman Gonzalez-Torres Fernandez, Joao Jalles and Cian Ruane), Chapter 3, World Economic Outlook, October 2019, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• Board Paper: Review of 1997 Guidance Note on Governance–A Proposed Framework for Enhanced Fund Engagement” (with IMF colleagues), IMF Policy Paper, 2018, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• Regional Economic Outlook - Sub-Saharan Africa: Economic Impacts of Revenue Mobilization in Resource-Rich Sub-Saharan African Countries (with Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro), Box 2.2, Chapter 2, Sub-Saharan Africa—Regional Economic Outlook, May 2018,Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• Fiscal Monitor: Debt: Use it Wisely (with Marialuz Moreno Badia, Nicoletta Batini, Victor Lledo, Lorenzo Forni, Samba Mbaye and Rossen Rozenov), Fiscal Monitor, October 2016, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

• World Economic Outlook: Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook in Low-Income Developing Countries: the Role of External Factors (with Futoshi Narita, Andrea Presbitero and Felipe Zanna), Box 1.2, Chapter 1, World Economic Outlook, April 2016, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Non-IMF Publications

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

• Power hungry: How AI will drive energy demand (with Christian Bogmans, Ganchimeg Ganpurev, Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, Andrea Pescatori and Sneha Thube), 2026, Energy Economics, 158, 109278.

• Electricity access and economic development: Leveraging climate finance in sub-Saharan Africa (with Thibault Lemaire, Andrea Medici, Gregor Schwerhoff and Sneha Thube), 2026, Energy Economics, 153, 109080.

• Monetary Policy Under Natural Disaster Shocks (with Alessandro Cantelmo, Nikos Fatouros and Chris Papageorgiou), 2024, International Economic Review, 65(3), 1441-1497

• The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand- and Supply-Driven Recessions (with Mario Di Serio, Matteo Fragetta and Emanuel Gasteiger), 2024, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 86(6), 1342-1372.

• Drivers of large recessions and monetary policy responses (with Stefania Villa), 2023, Journal of International Money and Finance, 137, 102894.

• Macroeconomic outcomes in disaster-prone countries (with Alessandro Cantelmo and Chris Papageorgiou), 2023, Journal of Development Economics, 161, 103037.

• Sectoral Labor Mobility and Optimal Monetary Policy (with Alessandro Cantelmo), 2023, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27(1), 1-26.

• The Distributional Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Economies (with Davide Furceri, Jun Ge and Prakash Loungani), 2022, Review of Development Economics, 26:3, 1574-1599.

• Building Back Better: How Big Are Green Spending Multipliers? (with Nicoletta Batini, Mario Di Serio, Matteo Fragetta, Anthony Waldron), 2022, Ecological Economics, 193, 107305.

• The Impact of r-g on Euro-Area Government Spending Multipliers (with Mario Di Serio and Matteo Fragetta), 2021, Journal of International Money and Finance, 119, 102493.

• How Loose, How Tight? A Measure of Monetary and Fiscal Stance for the Euro Area (with Nicoletta Batini, Alessandro Cantelmo and Stefania Villa), 2021, Oxford Economics Papers, 73(4), 1536-1556.

• Investing in Public Infrastructure; Roads or Schools? (with Manoj Atolia, Bin Grace Li and Ricardo Marto), 2021, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 25(7), 1892-1921.

• Macroeconomic Impacts of Non-Resource Revenue Mobilization in CEMAC (with Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro), 2021, Applied Economics Letters, 28:9, 721-726.

• The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound (with Adalgiso Amendola, Mario Di Serio and Matteo Fragetta), 2020, European Economic Review, 127, 103480.

• Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt and Recession: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (with Nicoletta Batini and Stefania Villa), 2019, Journal of Macroeconomics, 62, 103044.

• Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management (with Cristiano Cantore, Paul Levine and Joe Pearlman), 2019, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23(3), 1166-120.

• Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods (with Alessandro Cantelmo), 2018, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 86, 1-48.

• Leaning Against Windy Bank Lending (with Stefania Villa), 2018, Economic Inquiry, 56(1), 460-482.

• Debt Sustainability, Public Investment and Natural Resources in Developing Countries: the DIGNAR Model (with Shu-Chun S. Yang and Luis-Felipe Zanna), 2016, Economic Modelling, 52, 630-649.

• Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads in the EMU. An Optimal Currency Area Perspective (with Mauro Costantini and Matteo Fragetta), 2014, European Economic Review, 70, 337–349.

• A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery (with Cristiano Cantore and Paul Levine), 2014, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 116(3), 669-701.

• Fiscal Policy and Lending Relationships (with Stefania Villa), 2014, Economic Inquiry, 52(2), 696-712.

• Identification of Monetary Policy in SVAR Models: A Data-Oriented Perspective (with Matteo Fragetta), 2013, Empirical Economics, 45(2), 831-844.

• A Fiscal Stimulus with Deep Habits and Optimal Monetary Policy (with Cristiano Cantore, Paul Levine and Bo Yang), 2012, Economics Letters, 117(1), 348-353.

• An Empirical Investigation of US Fiscal Expenditures and Macroeconomic Outcomes (with Yunus Aksoy), 2012, Economics Letters, 114(1), 64-68.

• The Effects of Fiscal Shocks in SVAR models: a Graphical Modelling Approach (with Matteo Fragetta), 2011, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 58(4), 537-566.

• US Fiscal Indicators, Inflation and Output (with Yunus Aksoy), 2011, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 22(3), 221-236.

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

• Macro-Fiscal Gains from Anticorruption Reforms in the Republic of Congo (with Hoda Selim and Concha Verdugo Yepes), in Newiak, M., A. Wane and A. Segura-Ubiergo, 2022, Good Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa: Opportunities and Lessons, Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.

• Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa (with Rafael Portillo), in Berg, A. and Portillo, R. (Editors), 2018, Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Content in this bundle

• Giovanni Melina · Curriculum Vitae · 2025
  • Giovanni Melina · Curriculum Vitae · 2025 (Markdown version)
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