artwork from the cover of this publication
World Economic and Financial Surveys

Global Financial Stability Report

Market Developments and Issues
September 2002

©2002 International Monetary Fund
Ordering Information

The Global Financial Stability Report provides quarterly assessments of global financial markets and addresses emerging market financing in a global context.

Disclaimer
Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view All Chapters (1481KB PDF file).

 Contents   
 
  Preface
 
Chapter I. Overview: Key Developments and Sources of Financial Market Risks (311KB pdf file)
Assessment of Likely Outcomes and Sources of Financial Risk
Promoting Global Financial Stability
Chapter II. Developments and Sources of Risk in the Major Financial Centers (288KB pdf file)
The Market Deterioration Stemming from Eroding Investor Confidence and Heightened Risk Aversion
Main Financial Market Risks Associated with Shifts in the Pattern of Global Capital Flows
References
Chapter III. Emerging Market Developments and Financing (250KB pdf file)
Emerging Market Financing Overview
Emerging Bond Markets
Primary Bond Issuance
Bond Market Vulnerabilities
Primary Market Vulnerabilities
Emerging Equity Markets
Net Foreign Flows to Emerging Equity Markets
Investor Sentiment and Earnings Outlook
Primary Equity Issuance
Syndicated Lending in the Emerging Markets
Foreign Exchange in Emerging Markets
Chapter IV. Selected topic: Emerging Local Bond Markets (148KB pdf file)
Size and Structure of Global Bond Markets
Local Bond Markets as an Alternative Source of Funding
Secondary Markets and the Role of Foreign Investors
Conclusion
References
 
Boxes  
2.1 Governance and Accounting Issues
2.2 Equity Markets Indicate Deteriorating Investor Confidence, Lower Earnings Expectations, and Rising Risk Perception/Aversion
3.1 The Scope for Emerging Market Contagion
3.2 Developments in Brazil and Emerging Debt Markets Since the End of June
4.1 Indexed Bonds
4.2 External Refinancing Risk in Latin America
 
Tables  
1.1 Financial Market Data
2.1 Composition of U.S. Capital Flows
2.2 Global Capital Inflows and Outflows
2.3 Returns in Global Markets
2.4 Market Value of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Long-Term Securities, by Type of Security
3.1 Emerging Market Financing Overview
3.2 EMBI+ Dollar Returns, 2002
3.3 Equity Market Performance, 2002
4.1 Size and Structure of the Global Bond Market in 2001
4.2 Selected Emerging Local Bond Markets: Amounts Outstanding
4.3 Emerging Market Debt Trading Volume Survey
 
Figures  
2.1 S&P 500 Earnings Growth Forecasts for 2002
2.2 S&P 500 and National Income and Product Accounts Profits
2.3 Relative Performance in Stock Markets
2.4 Twelve-Month Forward Price/Earnings Ratios
2.5 Flows into U.S.-Based Equity Funds
2.6 Implied Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions, Euro-U.S. Dollar, Three-Month Horizon
2.7 Shares of Countries with Current Account Surplus and Deficit in 2001
3.1 Liquidity and Credit Premia Index
3.2 Emerging Market Financing
3.3 Cumulative Gross Annual Issuance of Bonds, Loans, and Equity
3.4 Emerging Market Spreads
3.5 Average Correlation of Emerging Debt Markets
3.6 Bond Issues
3.7 EMBI+ Spreads Versus 60-Day Returns
3.8 Correlation Between Returns on the EMBI+ and the Latin American Free Equity Index
3.9 Average Correlations of the Returns on Emerging Equity Markets Indices
3.10 Net Foreign Purchases and Monthly Returns on Emerging Equity Markets
3.11 Emerging Market Earnings Forecasts
3.12 Equity Placements
3.13 Syndicated Loan Commitments
3.14 Loan-Weighted Interest Margin
3.15 Loan-Weighted Maturity
3.16 Latin American Currencies Against the U.S. Dollar
3.17 Asian Currencies Since the Dollar Peak
4.1 Corporate Bond Issuance in Selected Emerging Markets