Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs

Author/Editor:

Mikhail Golosov ; John R King

Publication Date:

December 1, 2002

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

Year-ahead forecasts of tax revenues incorporated into IMF programs for low-income countries, from 1993 to 1999, are compared with the corresponding outturns. The accuracy of these forecasts was low, with a mean absolute percentage error of 16 percent. Forecasts of tax revenues as a percentage of GDP were biased upwards, but there was no significant bias in forecasts of nominal tax revenues. Upward bias in the tax revenue forecasts was associated with subsequent interruptions to the program, and the length of time between the commencement of the program and the beginning of the year for which the forecast was made.

Series:

Working Paper No. 02/236

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

December 1, 2002

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451875690/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2362002

Price:

$15.00 (Academic Rate:$15.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

23

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