Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs

December 1, 2002

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Mikhail Golosov, and John R King. Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2002) accessed September 23, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Year-ahead forecasts of tax revenues incorporated into IMF programs for low-income countries, from 1993 to 1999, are compared with the corresponding outturns. The accuracy of these forecasts was low, with a mean absolute percentage error of 16 percent. Forecasts of tax revenues as a percentage of GDP were biased upwards, but there was no significant bias in forecasts of nominal tax revenues. Upward bias in the tax revenue forecasts was associated with subsequent interruptions to the program, and the length of time between the commencement of the program and the beginning of the year for which the forecast was made.

Subject: Budget planning and preparation, Debt bias, GDP forecasting, National accounts, Public financial management (PFM), Revenue administration, Revenue forecasting, Tax policy

Keywords: Africa, Budget planning and preparation, Debt bias, Forecasted tax revenue ratio, Forecasting, GDP, GDP forecasting, IMF-supported programs, Nominal tax revenues, Program revenue, Revenue collector, Revenue estimation, Revenue forecasting, Tax ratio, Tax revenue, Tax revenue forecast, Tax revenues, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

23
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2002/236
Stock No:

WPIEA2362002
ISBN:

9781451875690
ISSN:

1018-5941

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