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Independent Evaluation Office - IEO Publications

September 12, 2003
The IEO provides objective and independent evaluation on issues related to the IMF. The Office operates independently of IMF management and at arm's length from the IMF's Executive Board.

Evaluation Report
IMF and Recent Capital Account Crises:
Indonesia, Korea, Brazil

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Full text in PDF Format (1.51 MB)

Foreword (69 kb PDF file)
Abbreviations and Acronyms

The IMF and Recent Capital Account Crises:
Indonesia, Korea, Brazil
Executive Summary (354 kb PDF file)
Main Report
1 Introduction
2 The Three Crisis Cases
3 Precrisis Surveillance
The Diagnosis Role of Surveillance
The Impact of Surveillance
The Role of Transparency
Recent Initiatives and Further Steps to Strengthen Surveillance
4 Program Design and Implementation
Macroeconomic Framework and Projections
Fiscal Policy
Monetary Policy
Official Financing and Private Sector Involvement
Bank Closure and Restructuring
Structural Conditionality
Communications Strategy to Enhance Ownership and Credibility
5 Internal Governance
Human Resource Management
The Role of Major Shareholders and the Executive Board
The Relations with Other International Financial Institutions
6 Conclusions and Recommendations
Appendix 1.   The IMF's Financial Arrangements with Three Crisis Countries, 1997–2002
Appendix 2.   List of Interviewees
4.1.   Conditionality for Structural Reforms in an IMF-Supported Program
2.1.   Indonesia, Korea, and Brazil: Exchange Rate Movements Against the U.S. Dollar Under IMF-Supported Programs
2.2.   Indonesia: Key Economic Variables
2.3.   Korea: Key Economic Variables
2.4.   Brazil: Key Economic Variables
2.1.   Indonesia: Key Economic Indicators
2.2.   Korea: Key Economic Indicators
2.3.   Brazil: Key Economic Indicators
4.1.   Real GDP and Investment Projections and Outturn in Crisis Countries
4.2.   Real Interest Rates in Selected Countries
4.3.   Official Financing Assumed in Initial IMF-Supported Programs

1 Indonesia (211 kb PDF file)
Precrisis Surveillance
Program Design
The Mode of Operations
Appendix A1.1.  Indonesia: Selected Conditionality Under
                      IMF-Supported Programs: Evolution and
                      Implementation, 1997–98
Appendix A1.2.  Indonesia: Timeline of Major Events
2 Korea (222 kb PDF file)
Precrisis Surveillance
Program Design
Program Financing and the Debt Rollover
Appendix. Korea: Timeline of Major Events
3 Brazil (198 kb PDF file)
Precrisis Surveillance
Program Design
Appendix A3.1.  Brazil: Selected Conditionality Under
                      IMF-Supported Programs, 1998–2000
Appendix A3.2.  Brazil: Timeline of Major Events
Annex Boxes
A1.1.   Indonesia: Was Monetary Policy Tight?
A2.1.   Merchant Banks in Korea
A2.2.   The IMF-Supported Program in Korea
A2.3.   Recent Studies on the Impact of High Interest Rate Policy in Korea
A3.1.   Brazil: The Real Plan
A3.2.   Brazil: The Evolution of Exchange Rate Policy
Annex Figures
A1.1.   Indonesia: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators
A1.2.   Indonesia: Monthly Nominal Interest Rates
A1.3.   Indonesia: Monthly Real Interest Rates
A1.4.   Indonesia: Daily Movements of the Rupiah-U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate
A1.5.   Indonesia: Base Money Outcomes and Targets Under IMF-Supported Programs
A2.1.   Won-U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate and Korean Equity Prices
A2.2.   Korean and Emerging Market Borrowing Spreads
A2.3.   Won-U.S. Dollar Spot and Forward Rates
A2.4.   Korea: Overnight Call Money Rate and Inflation
A2.5.   Daily Volatility of U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates Against Korean Won, Japanese Yen, and Deutsche Mark
A3.1.   Brazil: Real Effective Exchange Rate
A3.2.   Brazil: Foreign Exchange Reserves
A3.3.   Brazil and Emerging Markets Bond Index Spreads
A3.4.   Brazil: Debt Sustainability Projections
A3.5.   Brazil: Composition of Federal Domestic Securities
A3.6.   Short-Term Interest Rate and Real-U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate
Annex Tables
A1.1.   Indonesia: Fiscal Outcomes and Targets
A1.2.   Indonesia: Balance of Payments Projections and Outcomes
A2.1.   Korea Balance of Payments and Financing Requirements
A3.1.   Brazil: Fiscal Developments
A3.2.   Brazil: Factors Affecting Net Public Debt
A3.3.   Brazil: Financing Assumptions and Outturns
A3.4.   Brazil: Macroeconomic Projections

Bibliography (107 kb PDF file)
Memorandum from First Deputy Managing Director (107 kb PDF file)
Statement by Managing Director (107 kb PDF file)
IMF Staff Response (107 kb PDF file)
Summing Up of IMF Executive Board Discussion by Acting Chair (69 kb PDF file)